2019 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -3 upsetO 45 ✓Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:08, CIN +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:08ARI — CIN CIN ball · 1st & 10ARI 80%

(2:08) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:08CIN +18% win prob(2:08) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 6:44CIN +10% win prob(6:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 16-T.Sherfield to CIN 21 for 23 yards (59-N.Vigil; 22-W.Jackson III) [97-G.Atkins]. PENALTY on CIN-97-G.Atkins, Roughing the Passer, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 21.
Q4 · 0:51CIN +10% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles up the middle to CIN 15 for 24 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
Q2 · 0:01ARI +9% win prob(:01) 5-Z.Gonzalez 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Bengals
Offensive plays	70	62
Total yards	514 (edge)	370
Yards per play	7.3 (edge)	6.0
Expected points added / play	0.28 (edge)	0.10
Success rate	51%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	50%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	13 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0	0

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 23	5	3	0:53	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 30	12	65	5:39	Turnover on downs
3	ARI	ARI 32	11	63	4:48	Touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 25	5	3	1:24	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 21	10	60	4:20	Turnover on downs
6	CIN	CIN 27	7	17	2:46	Punt
7	ARI	ARI 20	12	65	5:01	Turnover on downs
8	CIN	50	6	5	1:42	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	ARI 25	13	81	3:27	Turnover on downs
10	CIN	CIN 25	16	70	6:26	Turnover on downs
11	ARI	ARI 25	9	39	3:47	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 20	6	26	3:10	Turnover on downs
13	ARI	CIN 42	7	48	3:12	Turnover on downs
14	CIN	CIN 8	6	24	3:04	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 22	8	88	3:08	Touchdown
16	CIN	CIN 21	12	79	3:05	Touchdown
17	ARI	ARI 25	5	5	0:27	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 19	5	81	1:41	Touchdown
19	ARI	ARI 25	7	62	2:00	Turnover on downs

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 88 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3
Closing total: 45
ARI moneyline: +139
CIN moneyline: -154

Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 49 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: ARI 7 days · CIN 6 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Zac Taylor