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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
CardinalsArizona26
BY 3final margin
BengalsCincinnati23
Arizona Cardinals 26 at Cincinnati Bengals 23. Final.
Bengals -3 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 5
Arizona Cardinals 26, Bengals 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:08, 1st and 10, on T.Boyd — 17.8 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:08 · 1st and 10
T.Boyd
Bengals
(2:08) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.8
O 45 ✓
Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:08, Bengals +17.8% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.SherfieldCardinalsQ2 6:44(6:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 16-T.Sherfield to CIN 21 for 23 yards (59-N.Vigil; 22-W.Jackson III) [97-G.Atkins]. PENALTY on CIN-97-G.Atkins, Roughing the Passer, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 21.
10.3pts
K.MurrayCardinalsQ4 0:51(:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles up the middle to CIN 15 for 24 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
10.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Bengals at 5 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Bengals at +0.10 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Cardinals at 1 touchdown on 7 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Cardinals176 of 186 plays carry both curves
(2:08) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +17.8 for BengalsExpected points +4.40 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:08CIN +18% win prob(2:08) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:44CIN +10% win prob(6:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 16-T.Sherfield to CIN 21 for 23 yards (59-N.Vigil; 22-W.Jackson III) [97-G.Atkins]. PENALTY on CIN-97-G.Atkins, Roughing the Passer, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 21.
4th · 0:51CIN +10% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles up the middle to CIN 15 for 24 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
2nd · 0:01ARI +9% win prob(:01) 5-Z.Gonzalez 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
3rd · 14:18CIN +9% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 19-A.Tate pushed ob at CIN 40 for 15 yards (33-B.Murphy Jr.).
4th · 1:31CIN +9% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 31-D.Johnson pushed ob at CIN 43 for 24 yards (30-J.Bates III; 59-N.Vigil).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Z.Gonzalez's 31-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:31R.Bullock·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+30–3
4th0:02Z.Gonzalez·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+326–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryBengals
Cardinals5–1Bengals
514Total yards370
7.3Yards per play6.0
51%Success rate53%
46%Third-down rate42%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
13Explosive plays5
24First downs18
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Cardinals ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Cardinals: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.10Bengals: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Cardinals: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.24Bengals: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.21Cardinals: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.15Bengals: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 70 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Bengals’s 62 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 7, Bengals 4.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's early-down pass rate, 41.1%, is past their previous low of 59.2% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bengals8.6%
inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.9 pts, 13.3 points below their season mean of 0.5 pts and 1.5 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:08) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:08 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at ARI 42 · gained 42 · +4.40 EP · +22.8% win probability
174 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 83 yards from the ARI 15 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
48%
Yards
884
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.2161%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2054%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.3614%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR13+0.3754%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.8283%
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Cardinals 26
Cardinals0Bengals3
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Cardinals 4
Cardinals6Bengals3
Cardinals7Bengals3
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 32 to the Bengals 6
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Bengals 33
2nd quarter50 plays
No good5 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 19
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 45
Cardinals10Bengals3
Field goal13 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Bengals 5
Cardinals10Bengals6
Field goal6 plays, from midfield to the Cardinals 30
Cardinals13Bengals6
Field goal18 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Bengals 2
3rd quarter41 plays
Cardinals13Bengals9
Field goal18 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Cardinals 5
Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Bengals 36
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 42
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Bengals 11
4th quarter54 plays
Cardinals16Bengals9
Field goal4 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 4
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Bengals 22
Cardinals22Bengals9
Cardinals23Bengals9
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Bengals 37
Cardinals23Bengals15
Cardinals23Bengals16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Cardinals 2
Punt7 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Cardinals23Bengals22
Cardinals23Bengals23
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Cardinals 42
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Cardinals26Bengals23
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Bengals 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
