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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 53, Falcons 32 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:29, 3rd and 5, on D.Freeman — 17.5 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:29 · 3rd and 5
D.Freeman
Falcons
(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -4 and covered, winning by 21.
Houston Texans 53–32 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:29, Falcons +17.5% win probability on one snap.
17.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
W.FullerTexansQ2 12:14(12:14) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.2pts
K.CouteeTexansQ3 13:54(13:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 16-K.Coutee to ATL 18 for 51 yards (37-R.Allen). Penalty on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Defensive Offside, declined.
15.7pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +1.00 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at +0.14 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Falcons at 5 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.50 expected points per snap, against Falcons at +0.08 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Falcons184 of 194 plays carry both curves
(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.5 for TexansExpected points −2.76 for TexansThe model had Falcons 8 points higher than the market did.play 84
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:29HOU +17% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:54HOU +16% win prob(13:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 16-K.Coutee to ATL 18 for 51 yards (37-R.Allen). Penalty on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 12:14HOU +13% win prob(12:14) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:18HOU +11% win prob(10:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones to HOU 30 for 20 yards (21-B.Roby) [99-J.Watt]. FUMBLES (21-B.Roby), ball out of bounds at HOU 30. PENALTY on HOU-99-J.Watt, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 30.
1st · 9:10HOU +8% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:20HOU +8% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to ATL 41 for 13 yards (21-B.Roby).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Hyde's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 11:54 left in the 3rd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th0:39T.Gipson·79-yd defence TD79-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide left+632–53
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryTexans
Falcons0–9Texans
376Total yards592
5.5Yards per play8.8
44%Success rate52%
56%Third-down rate77%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays12
20First downs29
2Sacks taken0
2Turnovers0
The read
Texans ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.00 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Falcons: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.50Texans: +0.50 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Falcons: +0.14 expected points added per play
+1.00Texans: +1.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Falcons: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.01Texans: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 68 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Texans’s 67 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Texans 7.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.50 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
HOU's early-down pass rate, 44.4%, is past their previous low of 52.2% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 4.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Texans16.0%
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 44.4%, 12.0 points below their season mean of 56.4% and 1.3 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 16-K.Coutee to ATL 18 for 51 yards (37-R.Allen). Penalty on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q3 13:54 · Texans · 3rd & 4 at HOU 31 · gained 51 · +4.22 EP · +14.6% win probability
182 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 194 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 194 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 83 yards from the HOU 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
194 of 194 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
194
EPA per play
+0.21
Success rate
44%
Yards
967
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.1181%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30+0.5050%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.4752%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0157%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0560%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.9860%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 21
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Texans 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Falcons6Texans0
Falcons7Texans0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Texans 14
Falcons7Texans6
Falcons7Texans7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Falcons 6
The period ended10 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Texans 18
2nd quarter53 plays
Falcons10Texans7
Field goal2 plays
Falcons10Texans13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Falcons 33
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Falcons 28
Falcons10Texans16
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Falcons 32
Falcons16Texans16
Falcons17Texans16
Touchdown16 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Texans 9
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 41
3rd quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Falcons17Texans22
Falcons17Texans23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Falcons 1
Punt6 plays
Falcons17Texans26
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Falcons 7
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 33
Falcons17Texans32
Falcons17Texans33
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Falcons 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 40
4th quarter55 plays
Punt1 play
Falcons23Texans33
Falcons25Texans33
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 1
Falcons25Texans39
Falcons25Texans40
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Falcons 12
Falcons31Texans40
Falcons32Texans40
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Texans 27
Falcons32Texans46
Falcons32Texans47
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Falcons 44
Falcons32Texans53
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Texans 35
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -4
Closing total
49
Falcons moneyline
+184
Texans moneyline
-207
Texans closed -4 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 49; the game landed 85 — over by 36.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Bill O'Brien
1st · 13:07
ATL +8% win prob
(13:07) 23-C.Hyde left end to HOU 33 for -5 yards (97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (97-G.Jarrett), recovered by HOU-74-M.Scharping at HOU 23. 74-M.Scharping to HOU 23 for no gain (59-D.Campbell).
2nd · 1:12HOU +7% win prob(1:12) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 12-M.Sanu. 24-D.Freeman right end to HOU 26 for 21 yards (37-J.Addae).
