2019 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2019 · Heinz Field

Baltimore RavensWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

BAL -3.5 no coverO 44 ✓Ravens closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 7:37, BAL +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 7:37BAL — PIT PIT ball · 2nd & 7BAL 50%

(7:37) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 45 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), touched at PIT 45, RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey to PIT 34 for

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 7:37BAL +28% win prob(7:37) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 45 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), touched at PIT 45, RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey to PIT 34 for 3 yards (19-J.Smith-Schuster). The Replay Official reviewed the ball was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
OT · 8:23PIT +23% win prob(8:23) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to PIT 32, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.
Q4 · 0:54BAL +21% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at PIT 30 for -3 yards (79-J.Hargrave).
OT · 5:31PIT +21% win prob(5:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Steelers
Offensive plays	73	50
Total yards	277 (edge)	270
Yards per play	3.8	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	38%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	52%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 11	5	9	2:23	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 41	10	45	5:16	Turnover on downs
3	PIT	PIT 12	2	0	0:12	Interception
4	BAL	PIT 15	5	18	2:21	Touchdown
5	PIT	PIT 25	7	75	2:07	Touchdown
6	BAL	BAL 25	15	75	6:20	Touchdown
7	PIT	PIT 25	8	25	3:14	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 12	3	-1	1:25	Interception
9	PIT	BAL 16	4	-12	2:03	Turnover on downs
10	BAL	PIT 42	5	-9	1:33	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 20	7	12	1:30	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 11	4	8	1:03	Interception
13	PIT	BAL 25	3	4	0:33	Turnover on downs
14	BAL	BAL 25	10	32	6:38	Interception
15	PIT	PIT 13	11	65	4:40	Touchdown
16	BAL	BAL 25	13	77	7:03	Turnover on downs
17	PIT	PIT 15	9	54	4:25	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 1	4	0	1:09	Punt
19	PIT	BAL 45	6	25	3:28	Turnover on downs
20	BAL	BAL 25	10	30	2:27	Turnover on downs
21	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:10	Turnover on downs
22	BAL	BAL 25	5	-4	1:44	Punt
23	PIT	PIT 32	2	13	0:49	Fumble
24	BAL	PIT 34	4	6	2:01	Turnover on downs

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 77 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3.5
Closing total: 44
BAL moneyline: -179
PIT moneyline: +160

Ravens closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44; the game landed 49 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 70°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: BAL 7 days · PIT 6 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.