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Baltimore Ravens 26 at Pittsburgh Steelers 23. Final.
Ravens -3.5 no coverO 44 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 5
Baltimore Ravens 26, Steelers 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 7:37, 2nd and 7, on J.Smith-Schuster — 27.7 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 7:37 · 2nd and 7
J.Smith-Schuster
Ravens
(7:37) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 45 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), touched at PIT 45, RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey to PIT 34 for 3 yards (19-J.Smith-Schuster). The Replay Official reviewed the ball was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Ravens closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 7:37, Ravens +27.7% win probability on one snap.
27.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
L.JacksonSteelersQ4 0:54(:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at PIT 30 for -3 yards (79-J.Hargrave).
21.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetRavensOT 8:23(8:23) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to PIT 32, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.
23.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Steelers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Ravens at 3 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Ravens173 of 181 plays carry both curves
(7:37) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 45 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), touched at PIT 45, RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey to PIT 34 for
Swing −27.7 for SteelersExpected points −4.68 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 7:37BAL +28% win prob(7:37) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 45 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), touched at PIT 45, RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey to PIT 34 for 3 yards (19-J.Smith-Schuster). The Replay Official reviewed the ball was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Overtime · 8:23PIT +23% win prob(8:23) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to PIT 32, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.
4th · 0:54BAL +21% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at PIT 30 for -3 yards (79-J.Hargrave).
Overtime · 5:31PIT +21% win prob(5:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
4th · 0:14PIT +16% win prob(:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
4th · 3:27BAL +12% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short left to 38-J.Samuels to BAL 15 for -2 yards (41-A.Levine).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Tucker's 46-yard field goal with 5:31 left in overtime put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:24J.Tucker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+33–0
4th11:42J.Tucker·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+320–20
4th2:41C.Boswell·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+320–23
4th0:14J.Tucker·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+323–23
Overtime5:31J.Tucker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+326–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categorySteelers
Ravens4–5Steelers
277Total yards270
3.8Yards per play5.4
38%Success rate40%
40%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays5
19First downs13
5Sacks taken1
3Turnovers2
The read
Steelers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Ravens: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.12Steelers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Ravens: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.12Steelers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Ravens: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.13Steelers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 73 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Steelers’s 50 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Steelers 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Steelers15.8%
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 9.1%, 8.5 points below their season mean of 17.6% and 1.2 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%79 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%79 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%79 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Every snap100%79 snaps
68Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%79 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Heavy rotation70%55 snaps
21Mark IngramRB · Heavy rotation66%52 snaps
11Seth RobertsWR · Heavy rotation66%52 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Heavy rotation65%51 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation52%41 snaps
15Marquise BrownWR · Rotational46%36 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Rotational41%32 snaps
80Miles BoykinWR · Rotational25%20 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational25%20 snaps
10Chris MooreWR · Situational24%19 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Situational15%12 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Situational6%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jimmy SmithCBAnthony AverettCBDaylon MackDTBen PowersGKenny YoungLBTrace McSorleyQBJaleel ScottWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Hodges pass−28% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:37) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 45 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), touched at PIT 45, RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey to PIT 34 for 3 yards (19-J.Smith-Schuster). The Replay Official reviewed the ball was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
OT 7:37 · Steelers · 2nd & 7 at PIT 35 · gained 10 · -4.68 EP · −27.7% win probability
172 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 87 yards from the PIT 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
41%
Yards
546
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0264%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2043%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2258%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.1722%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 16
Ravens3Steelers0
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Steelers 9
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Ravens9Steelers0
Ravens10Steelers0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 2
Ravens10Steelers6
Ravens10Steelers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 35
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 44
2nd quarter49 plays
Ravens16Steelers7
Ravens17Steelers7
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Steelers 11
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 45
Intercepted3 plays
Ravens17Steelers10
Field goal6 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 7
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 42 to the Steelers 39
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 37
Intercepted4 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Ravens 22
Ravens17Steelers13
Field goal4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 11
3rd quarter33 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Ravens17Steelers19
Ravens17Steelers20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Ravens 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 47
4th quarter45 plays
Ravens20Steelers20
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 8
Punt12 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Ravens 41
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Ravens20Steelers23
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Ravens 13
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Ravens23Steelers23
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 27
The period ended3 plays
Overtime12 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Steelers 35
Ravens26Steelers23
Field goal4 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Steelers 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -3.5
Closing total
44
Ravens moneyline
-179
Steelers moneyline
+160
Ravens closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44; the game landed 49 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 71°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-west; 0.01 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Steelers 6 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 7:39PIT +11% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 13-J.Washington to PIT 38 for 26 yards (99-M.Judon) [29-E.Thomas]. PIT-2-M.Rudolph was injured during the play. PENALTY on BAL-29-E.Thomas, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 38.
4th · 5:24PIT +11% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges scrambles right end ran ob at BAL 23 for 21 yards. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23.
Ravenscategory by categorySteelers
Ravens3
Steelers0
