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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 14, Titans 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:49, 3rd and 3, on D.Williams — 15.5 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:49 · 3rd and 3
D.Williams
Bills
(9:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 82-D.Williams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.5
Titans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 14–7. Biggest swing: Q4 9:49, Bills +15.5% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.ByardTitansQ3 10:42(10:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 10-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at BUF 43. 31-K.Byard to BUF 38 for 5 yards (22-T.Yeldon).
13.4pts
J.SmithTitansQ3 2:29(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 81-J.Smith to BUF 21 for 57 yards (39-L.Wallace; 33-S.Neal).
15.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bills won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Titans at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Titans owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Bills at 1 giveaway.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
6 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Bills155 of 163 plays carry both curves
(9:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 82-D.Williams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.5 for TitansExpected points −2.51 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 133
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:49TEN +16% win prob(9:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 82-D.Williams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:29TEN +15% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 81-J.Smith to BUF 21 for 57 yards (39-L.Wallace; 33-S.Neal).
3rd · 10:42BUF +13% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 10-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at BUF 43. 31-K.Byard to BUF 38 for 5 yards (22-T.Yeldon).
4th · 6:35BUF +12% win prob(6:35) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
4th · 11:23TEN +11% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 19-I.McKenzie to TEN 14 for 46 yards (26-L.Ryan).
2nd · 10:11TEN +10% win prob(10:11) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to BUF 49, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at TEN 44 for 7 yards (85-M.Pruitt). PENALTY on BUF-19-I.McKenzie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 49.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Williams's 7-yard touchdown catch with 9:49 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th9:49D.Williams·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom J.Allenfrom J.AllenLead never changed again+714–7
3 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryTitans
Bills7–1Titans
315Total yards252
5.2Yards per play4.7
41%Success rate39%
31%Third-down rate29%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays5
17First downs10
4Sacks taken5
1Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Bills: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.08Titans: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Bills: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.08Titans: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Bills: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.08Titans: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 61 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Titans’s 54 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Titans 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 33.3% in week 4 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +11.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Titans12.5%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 22.8 points below their season mean of 22.8% and 1.8 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 82-D.Williams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 9:49 · Bills · 3rd & 3 at TEN 7 · gained 7 · +2.51 EP · +18.6% win probability
153 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 77 yards from the BUF 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
38%
Yards
565
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.0168%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0568%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2428%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2871%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 33
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 17 to the Bills 40
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 27
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Titans 31
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Bills 24
2nd quarter44 plays
No good1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Titans 43
Punt4 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Titans 46
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 12 to the Titans 14
Bills6Titans0
Bills7Titans0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Titans 8
No good11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bills 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 31
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Titans 20
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 39
Bills7Titans6
Bills7Titans7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bills 1
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Bills 15
4th quarter43 plays
No good7 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bills13Titans7
Bills14Titans7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Titans 7
No good8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bills 35
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Bills 44
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 26
The period ended13 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Titans 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -3.5
Closing total
39.5
Bills moneyline
+162
Titans moneyline
-182
Titans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 21 — under by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 78°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south; 0.17 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Bradley Rogers
Rest
Bills 7 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Mike Vrabel
1st · 3:16BUF +10% win prob(3:16) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 30 for 1 yard (55-J.Brown).
4th · 11:52TEN +10% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to BUF 25 for 6 yards (26-L.Ryan). PENALTY on TEN-99-J.Casey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 25.
