2019 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2019 · Nissan Stadium
Buffalo BillsWinner
14
at
Tennessee Titans
7
TEN -3.5 upsetU 39.5 ✓
Buffalo Bills 14–7. Biggest swing: Q4 9:49, TEN +16% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
Q4 · 9:49BUF — TEN BUF ball · 3rd & 3BUF 63%
(9:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 82-D.Williams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 9:49TEN +16% win prob(9:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 82-D.Williams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q3 · 2:29TEN +15% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 81-J.Smith to BUF 21 for 57 yards (39-L.Wallace; 33-S.Neal).
- Q3 · 10:42BUF +13% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 10-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at BUF 43. 31-K.Byard to BUF 38 for 5 yards (22-T.Yeldon).
- Q4 · 6:35BUF +12% win prob(6:35) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bills | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 61 | 54 |
| Total yards | 315 (edge) | 252 |
| Yards per play | 5.2 (edge) | 4.7 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.09 | -0.08 (edge) |
| Success rate | 41% (edge) | 39% |
| Dropback rate | 66% | 56% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.08 (edge) | -0.08 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.12 | -0.08 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/13 (edge) | 4/14 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 (edge) | 10 |
| Sacks taken | 4 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | TEN 25 | 5 | 23 | 2:56 | Punt | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 17 | 5 | 22 | 2:27 | Punt | |
| 3 | TEN | TEN 20 | 4 | 7 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 25 | 11 | 45 | 4:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | TEN | TEN 30 | 7 | 38 | 3:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 40 | 6 | 17 | 2:52 | Punt | |
| 7 | TEN | TEN 10 | 4 | -7 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 39 | 7 | 15 | 3:22 | Punt | |
| 9 | TEN | TEN 12 | 4 | -8 | 1:18 | Punt | |
| 10 | BUF | BUF 40 | 7 | 60 | 2:46 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | TEN | TEN 25 | 9 | 38 | 1:52 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 26 | 1 | 6 | 0:44 | End of half | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 25 | 5 | 0 | 1:56 | Punt | |
| 14 | TEN | TEN 13 | 4 | 7 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 30 | 3 | 9 | 1:12 | Interception | |
| 16 | TEN | BUF 38 | 8 | 33 | 3:28 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | BUF | BUF 23 | 7 | 26 | 3:07 | Punt | |
| 18 | TEN | TEN 14 | 12 | 91 | 6:32 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | BUF | BUF 23 | 7 | 62 | 2:37 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | TEN | TEN 25 | 8 | 25 | 3:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | BUF | BUF 43 | 4 | 1 | 1:04 | Punt | |
| 22 | TEN | TEN 20 | 4 | 5 | 1:15 | Punt | |
| 23 | BUF | BUF 29 | 9 | 52 | 4:12 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 91 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- TEN -3.5
- Closing total
- 39.5
- BUF moneyline
- +162
- TEN moneyline
- -182
Titans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 21 — under by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Nissan Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 77°F, wind 13 mph
- Referee
- Bradley Rogers
- Rest
- BUF 7 days · TEN 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean McDermott vs Mike Vrabel