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2019 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2019 · Tottenham Stadium
Final
BearsChicago21
BY 3final margin
RaidersOakland24
Chicago Bears 21 at Oakland Raiders 24. Final.
Bears -6.5 upsetO 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 5
Oakland Raiders 24, Bears 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:22, 2nd and 10, on G.Conley — 40.7 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:22 · 2nd and 10
G.Conley
Raiders
(1:22) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep right intended for 17-A.Miller INTERCEPTED by 21-G.Conley at LV 23. 21-G.Conley to LV 26 for 3 yards (17-A.Miller).
16 mph wind
Bears closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Oakland Raiders 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:22, Raiders +40.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
40.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetRaidersQ3 13:28(13:28) 4-D.Carr FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 27, touched at LV 15, RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at LV 14. 52-K.Mack to LV 14 for no gain (61-R.Hudson).
14.6pts
T.DavisRaidersQ4 13:58(13:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 11-T.Davis to CHI 1 for 2 yards (27-S.McManis). FUMBLES (27-S.McManis), RECOVERED by CHI-20-P.Amukamara at CHI 1. 20-P.Amukamara to CHI 1 for no gain (61-R.Hudson).
15.9pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 27.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 82 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Bears161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(1:22) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep right intended for 17-A.Miller INTERCEPTED by 21-G.Conley at LV 23. 21-G.Conley to LV 26 for 3 yards (17-A.Miller).
Swing +40.7 for RaidersExpected points +1.60 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 18 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:22CHI +41% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep right intended for 17-A.Miller INTERCEPTED by 21-G.Conley at LV 23. 21-G.Conley to LV 26 for 3 yards (17-A.Miller).
4th · 13:58CHI +16% win prob(13:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 11-T.Davis to CHI 1 for 2 yards (27-S.McManis). FUMBLES (27-S.McManis), RECOVERED by CHI-20-P.Amukamara at CHI 1. 20-P.Amukamara to CHI 1 for no gain (61-R.Hudson).
3rd · 13:28CHI +15% win prob(13:28) 4-D.Carr FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 27, touched at LV 15, RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at LV 14. 52-K.Mack to LV 14 for no gain (61-R.Hudson).
3rd · 1:58CHI +15% win prob(1:58) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to CHI 13, Center-47-T.Sieg. 29-T.Cohen to LV 16 for 71 yards (22-K.Nixon).
3rd · 1:22OAK +12% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CHI-17-A.Miller, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
3rd · 5:26OAK +12% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Jacobs's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 2:00 left in the 4th put Oakland Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:00J.Jacobs·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+721–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
3 of 3 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's sack or hit rate, 3.0%, is past their previous low of 11.3% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.0%, 9.6 points below their season mean of 12.6% and 1.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Daniel pass−32% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:22) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep right intended for 17-A.Miller INTERCEPTED by 21-G.Conley at LV 23. 21-G.Conley to LV 26 for 3 yards (17-A.Miller).
Q4 1:22 · Bears · 2nd & 10 at LV 47 · gained nothing · -1.60 EP · −31.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 97 yards from the LV 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
634
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0077%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.3441%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1055%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.3550%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.040%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.8620%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0480%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.74100%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Bears 28
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Raiders 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Bears 17
2nd quarter40 plays
Bears0Raiders6
Bears0Raiders7
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 29
Bears0Raiders13
Bears0Raiders14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 24
Bears0Raiders17
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 49 to the Bears 19
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 31
Bears6Raiders17
Bears7Raiders17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 1
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Bears13Raiders17
Bears14Raiders17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Raiders 4
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 48
Bears20Raiders17
Bears21Raiders17
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bears 33
4th quarter51 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bears 3
Punt16 plays, from the Bears 1 to the Raiders 42
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends, one punter, two linebackers, one long snapper, one lineman and three backsDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and four backs
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Bears21Raiders23
Bears21Raiders24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 3 to the Bears 2
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Raiders 47
Drive ended5 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Raiders 31
The period ended1 play
Punt1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThree
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
