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Cleveland Browns 3 at San Francisco 49ers 31. Final.
49ers -5 ✓U 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 5
San Francisco 49ers 31, Browns 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:28, 1st and 10, on M.Breida — 9.1 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:28 · 1st and 10
M.Breida
49ers
(13:28) 22-M.Breida left guard for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.1
49ers closed -5 and covered, winning by 28.
San Francisco 49ers 31–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:28, 49ers +9.1% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBrownsQ1 13:41(13:41) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to SF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-12-K.Hodge.
6.4pts
K.Williams49ersQ2 4:58(4:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 24-K.Williams at SF 2. 24-K.Williams to CLE 49 for 49 yards (64-J.Tretter).
7.1pts
What separated them
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.51 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.82 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Browns156 of 164 plays carry both curves
(13:28) 22-M.Breida left guard for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +9.1 for 49ersExpected points +6.10 for 49ersThe model had Browns 12 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:28SF +9% win prob(13:28) 22-M.Breida left guard for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:58CLE +7% win prob(4:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 24-K.Williams at SF 2. 24-K.Williams to CLE 49 for 49 yards (64-J.Tretter).
1st · 13:41SF +6% win prob(13:41) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to SF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-12-K.Hodge.
1st · 13:49CLE +6% win prob(13:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 83-R.Seals-Jones pushed ob at SF 27 for 31 yards (25-R.Sherman). San Francisco challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 83-R.Seals-Jones (25-R.Sherman).
1st · 13:17CLE +6% win prob(13:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Sherman [97-N.Bosa] at SF 46. 25-R.Sherman to CLE 41 for 13 yards (11-A.Callaway).
1st · 3:42CLE +3% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 33 for -8 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [99-D.Buckner], RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at CLE 29. 97-N.Bosa to CLE 29 for no gain (72-E.Kush).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Breida's 83-yard rushing touchdown with 13:28 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:28M.Breida·83-yd TD run83-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
4th5:13R.Gould·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap G.Sanborn+33–31
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by category49ers
Browns0–949ers
180Total yards449
3.9Yards per play6.6
26%Success rate44%
9%Third-down rate40%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays10
9First downs21
4Sacks taken2
3Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.82 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.51Browns: −0.51 expected points added per play
+0.2249ers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.82Browns: −0.82 expected points added per play
+0.2249ers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Browns: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.2349ers: +0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 46 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against 49ers’s 68 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, 49ers 5.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.51.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's pass rate over expected, −8.2 pts, is past their previous low of −6.2 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
46 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
49ers25.0%
leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.80× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 9.5 points above their season mean of 15.5% and 1.8 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Breida left+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:28) 22-M.Breida left guard for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:28 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 17 · gained 83 · +6.10 EP · +14.5% win probability
154 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 90 yards from the SF 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
35%
Yards
626
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.7356%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.3638%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.0272%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1743%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0967%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.5836%
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 45
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Browns049ers6
Browns049ers7
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 41 to the Browns 40
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Browns 15
Browns049ers13
Browns049ers14
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Browns 5
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 41
No good5 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 26
The period ended3 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Browns 41
2nd quarter45 plays
Browns349ers14
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the 49ers 7
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 47
Intercepted9 plays, from the Browns 22 to the 49ers 6
Browns349ers20
Browns349ers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Browns 19
Punt6 plays
No good4 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Browns 34
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Browns349ers27
Browns349ers28
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the Browns 22
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 45
No good15 plays, from the 49ers 4 to the Browns 14
Punt4 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the 49ers 15
4th quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 11 to the 49ers 22
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Browns 21
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the 49ers 26
Browns349ers31
Field goal6 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 20
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 29
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
