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Denver Broncos 20 at Los Angeles Chargers 13. Final.
Chargers -4 upsetU 46 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 5
Denver Broncos 20, Chargers 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:11, 2nd and 12, on C.Sutton — 12.7 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:11 · 2nd and 12
C.Sutton
Broncos
(5:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.7
Chargers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 20–13. Biggest swing: Q1 5:11, Broncos +12.7% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.FlaccoChargersQ2 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at LAC 29 for -8 yards (42-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (42-U.Nwosu), RECOVERED by LAC-57-J.Brown at LAC 31. 57-J.Brown to LAC 31 for no gain (72-G.Bolles).
8.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetChargersQ3 0:49(:49) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to LAC 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 20-D.King for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 1 chunk play.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.48 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Broncos160 of 172 plays carry both curves
(5:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.7 for ChargersExpected points −6.62 for ChargersThe model had Broncos 6 points higher than the market did.play 23
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:11LAC +13% win prob(5:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:49DEN +10% win prob(:49) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to LAC 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 20-D.King for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00DEN +9% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at LAC 29 for -8 yards (42-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (42-U.Nwosu), RECOVERED by LAC-57-J.Brown at LAC 31. 57-J.Brown to LAC 31 for no gain (72-G.Bolles).
3rd · 2:14DEN +9% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 45-A.Johnson at DEN -4. Touchback (16-A.Patton).
1st · 2:33DEN +8% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN 37. 31-J.Simmons to LAC 46 for 17 yards (87-L.Kendricks). FUMBLES (87-L.Kendricks), recovered by DEN-20-D.Dawson at LAC 42. 20-D.Dawson to LAC 42 for no gain (53-M.Pouncey).
2nd · 0:07DEN +7% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to DEN 1 for no gain (22-K.Jackson). FUMBLES (22-K.Jackson), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
P.Lindsay's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 11:11 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:11P.Lindsay·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd5:22B.McManus·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+317–0
3rd0:49D.King·68-yd return TD68-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+717–7
4th6:52C.McLaughlin·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+317–10
4th2:00B.McManus·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+320–10
4th0:15C.McLaughlin·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+320–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryChargers
Broncos5–2Chargers
351Total yards246
6.5Yards per play3.9
46%Success rate35%
27%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
9Explosive plays1
14First downs14
3Sacks taken0
2Turnovers2
The read
Broncos ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Broncos: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.38Chargers: −0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Broncos: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.34Chargers: −0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Broncos: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.48Chargers: −0.48 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 54 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Chargers’s 63 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Chargers 4.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 44.9% in week 4 against 69.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 31.6% in week 4 against 6.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.7 pts in week 4 against −6.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Chargers28.0%
leaned — got home · +15.8 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.98× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.0%, 15.8 points above their season mean of 12.2% and 2.0 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:11 · Broncos · 2nd & 12 at DEN 30 · gained 70 · +6.62 EP · +15.3% win probability
158 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 81 yards from the DEN 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
39%
Yards
596
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.2486%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.2352%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.3953%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.6945%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2538%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.5057%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.270%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Broncos6Chargers0
Broncos7Chargers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chargers 4
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Chargers 35
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Broncos13Chargers0
Broncos14Chargers0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 32
Intercepted6 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chargers 40
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Chargers 17
2nd quarter46 plays
Fumble lost1 play
No good13 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Broncos 16
Broncos17Chargers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Chargers 22
The period ended23 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 1
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 16
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Chargers 41
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 20 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 9 to the Broncos 16
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Broncos 49
Intercepted2 plays, from the Broncos 4 to the Broncos 5
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 7 to the Broncos 2
Broncos17Chargers6
Touchdown5 plays
Broncos17Chargers7
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter49 plays
No good11 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Chargers 30
Broncos17Chargers10
Field goal5 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Broncos 25
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 30
Broncos20Chargers10
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Chargers 28
Broncos20Chargers13
Field goal9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 14
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
