2019 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2019 · StubHub Center
Denver BroncosWinner
20
Los Angeles Chargers
13
Denver Broncos 20–13. Biggest swing: Q1 5:11, LAC +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(5:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 5:11LAC +13% win prob(5:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q3 · 0:49DEN +10% win prob(:49) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to LAC 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 20-D.King for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 15:00DEN +9% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at LAC 29 for -8 yards (42-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (42-U.Nwosu), RECOVERED by LAC-57-J.Brown at LAC 31. 57-J.Brown to LAC 31 for no gain (72-G.Bolles).
- Q3 · 2:14DEN +9% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 45-A.Johnson at DEN -4. Touchback (16-A.Patton).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Broncos | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 54 | 63 |
| Total yards | 351 (edge) | 246 |
| Yards per play | 6.5 (edge) | 3.9 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.01 (edge) | -0.38 |
| Success rate | 46% (edge) | 35% |
| Dropback rate | 46% | 75% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.18 (edge) | -0.34 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.18 (edge) | -0.48 |
| Third downs | 3/11 | 4/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 9 (edge) | 1 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 14 | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | DEN 25 | 9 | 75 | 3:54 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | LAC | LAC 16 | 8 | 19 | 3:51 | Punt | |
| 3 | DEN | DEN 19 | 6 | 81 | 2:17 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | LAC | LAC 14 | 5 | 21 | 2:38 | Interception | |
| 5 | DEN | LAC 42 | 6 | 21 | 2:29 | Fumble | |
| 6 | LAC | LAC 31 | 12 | 32 | 6:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 38 | 8 | 31 | 3:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | LAC | LAC 25 | 15 | 64 | 5:17 | End of half | |
| 9 | LAC | LAC 12 | 5 | 4 | 1:45 | Punt | |
| 10 | DEN | DEN 35 | 5 | 24 | 2:20 | Punt | |
| 11 | LAC | LAC 20 | 6 | 30 | 2:48 | Punt | |
| 12 | DEN | DEN 9 | 4 | 7 | 2:16 | Punt | |
| 13 | LAC | LAC 44 | 4 | 7 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 14 | DEN | DEN 4 | 2 | 1 | 0:41 | Interception | |
| 15 | LAC | DEN 7 | 3 | 5 | 1:31 | Interception | |
| 16 | DEN | DEN 20 | 4 | 7 | 1:36 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 17 | DEN | DEN 25 | 12 | 44 | 6:36 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | LAC | LAC 44 | 4 | -2 | 2:08 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 9 | 2:25 | Punt | |
| 20 | LAC | LAC 20 | 6 | 5 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 21 | DEN | DEN 31 | 5 | 51 | 1:25 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | LAC | LAC 25 | 9 | 61 | 1:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | DEN | LAC 42 | 2 | 0 | 0:10 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 81 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- LAC -4
- Closing total
- 46
- DEN moneyline
- +199
- LAC moneyline
- -226
Chargers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 33 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- StubHub Center
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 85°F, wind 12 mph
- Referee
- Shawn Hochuli
- Rest
- DEN 7 days · LAC 7 days
- Coaches
- Vic Fangio vs Anthony Lynn
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.