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Green Bay Packers 34, Cowboys 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 10:40, 1st and 10, on J.Alexander — 13.0 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:40 · 1st and 10
J.Alexander
Packers
(10:40) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 19-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 16. 23-J.Alexander to DAL 47 for 37 yards (71-L.Collins).
Dome
Cowboys closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 34–24. Biggest swing: Q1 10:40, Packers +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.JonesPackersQ1 9:03(9:03) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.3pts
A.CooperCowboysQ1 7:49(7:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper to GB 37 for 46 yards (23-J.Alexander).
8.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Cowboys at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 14 chunk plays, against Packers at 10 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 50% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Packers182 of 194 plays carry both curves
(10:40) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 19-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 16. 23-J.Alexander to DAL 47 for 37 yards (71-L.Collins).
Swing −13.0 for CowboysExpected points −6.67 for CowboysModel and market agree here.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:40GB +13% win prob(10:40) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 19-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 16. 23-J.Alexander to DAL 47 for 37 yards (71-L.Collins).
1st · 7:49DAL +9% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper to GB 37 for 46 yards (23-J.Alexander).
1st · 9:03DAL +8% win prob(9:03) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:21DAL +8% win prob(:21) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DAL 10, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.
1st · 2:36DAL +7% win prob(2:36) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan pushed ob at DAL 26 for 23 yards (25-X.Woods).
1st · 6:09GB +6% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at GB 44 for -10 yards (55-Z.Smith).
2nd · 11:22
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Jones's 18-yard rushing touchdown with 9:03 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:03A.Jones·18-yd TD run18-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Cowboys ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Packers: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.06Cowboys: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Packers: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.07Cowboys: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Packers: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.04Cowboys: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 62 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 68 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Packers 6, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys outgained Packers 563-339 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.4% in week 4 against 51.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +1.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Cowboys13.5%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.3%, 18.2 points above their season mean of 55.2% and 1.5 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tony BrownDBCole MadisonGAdam PankeyGTim WilliamsOLBDexter WilliamsRBJamaal WilliamsRBDavante AdamsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tim BoyleQB
Dallas Cowboys
47 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%71 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%71 snaps
75Cameron FlemingT · Every snap100%71 snaps
72Travis FrederickC · Every snap100%71 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time93%66 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time87%62 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Full-time86%61 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Full-time83%59 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Full-time83%59 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Heavy rotation62%44 snaps
69Brandon KnightT · Rotational38%27 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Rotational31%22 snaps
10Tavon AustinWR · Situational23%16 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Situational7%5 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Situational4%3 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Adam RedmondCJoe JacksonDELuke GiffordLBTyron SmithTDevin SmithWRCed WilsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Antwaun WoodsDTCooper RushQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:40) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 19-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 16. 23-J.Alexander to DAL 47 for 37 yards (71-L.Collins).
Q1 10:40 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at GB 38 · gained nothing · -6.67 EP · −17.9% win probability
180 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 194 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 194 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 89 yards from the GB 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
194 of 194 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
194
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
46%
Yards
898
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.0873%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1068%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2236%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0455%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.2650%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Packers 38
Packers6Cowboys0
Packers7Cowboys0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 47 to the Cowboys 18
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Packers 34
Packers13Cowboys0
Packers14Cowboys0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Cowboys 3
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Packers 34
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Packers 32
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to midfield
Packers17Cowboys0
Field goal15 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Cowboys 1
No good11 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Packers 36
Punt5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 31
3rd quarter51 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 25
Packers23Cowboys0
Packers24Cowboys0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Cowboys 5
Packers24Cowboys3
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Packers 7
Packers30Cowboys3
Packers31Cowboys3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Cowboys 1
Packers31Cowboys9
Packers31Cowboys10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Packers 40
Punt6 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 42
4th quarter50 plays
Packers31Cowboys16
Packers31Cowboys17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Packers 2
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 35
Intercepted1 play
Packers34Cowboys17
Field goal4 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 20
Packers34Cowboys23
Packers34Cowboys24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 47
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 25 to midfield
No good12 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Packers 10
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -3.5
Closing total
46.5
Packers moneyline
+162
Cowboys moneyline
-181
Cowboys closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 58 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Rest
Packers 10 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Jason Garrett
DAL +6% win prob
(11:22) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to DAL 21, Center-43-H.Bradley. 10-T.Austin to DAL 31 for 10 yards (13-A.Lazard).
2nd · 12:47GB +6% win prob(12:47) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 18-R.Cobb INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Sullivan at GB 21. 39-C.Sullivan to GB 28 for 7 yards (52-C.Williams).
