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Indianapolis Colts 19 at Kansas City Chiefs 13. Final.
Chiefs -10.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 5
Indianapolis Colts 19, Chiefs 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:06, 4th and 1, on Dam.Williams — 16.7 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:06 · 4th and 1
Dam.Williams
Colts
(5:06) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to KC 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Houston).
16.7
U 55.5 ✓
Chiefs closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Indianapolis Colts 19–13. Biggest swing: Q4 5:06, Colts +16.7% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.MathieuChiefsQ2 7:27(7:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at KC 7. 32-T.Mathieu to KC 37 for 30 yards (7-J.Brissett).
15.5pts
M.MackColtsQ4 13:52(13:52) 25-M.Mack right end pushed ob at KC 36 for 3 yards (56-B.Niemann).
12.9pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Colts won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 2 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Colts at 5 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Colts171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(5:06) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to KC 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Houston).
Swing −16.7 for ChiefsExpected points −3.07 for ChiefsThe model had Colts 11 points higher than the market did.play 158
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:06IND +17% win prob(5:06) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to KC 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Houston).
2nd · 7:27IND +16% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at KC 7. 32-T.Mathieu to KC 37 for 30 yards (7-J.Brissett).
4th · 13:52KC +13% win prob(13:52) 25-M.Mack right end pushed ob at KC 36 for 3 yards (56-B.Niemann).
3rd · 8:43IND +12% win prob(8:43) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 42-A.Sherman INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke at IND 26. 58-B.Okereke to 50 for 24 yards (75-C.Erving). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 42-A.Sherman. PENALTY on KC-77-A.Wylie, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 37.
4th · 11:15KC +10% win prob(11:15) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to KC 25 for 2 yards (90-E.Ogbah; 91-D.Nnadi).
2nd · 6:11IND +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Vinatieri's 32-yard field goal with 0:13 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:05H.Butker·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+30–3
2nd11:16A.Vinatieri·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+310–10
2nd0:13A.Vinatieri·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+313–10
4th7:44A.Vinatieri·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+316–10
4th2:30A.Vinatieri·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+319–10
4th1:19H.Butker·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+319–13
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryChiefs
Colts7–2Chiefs
333Total yards325
4.6Yards per play5.8
54%Success rate36%
36%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays7
19First downs16
0Sacks taken4
1Turnovers2
The read
Colts ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Colts: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.09Chiefs: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Colts: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.02Chiefs: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Colts: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.35Chiefs: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 72 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 56 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Colts 5, Chiefs 3.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's early-down pass rate, 81.0%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 7.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 68.4% in week 4.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.3% in week 4 against 15.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +2.7 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chiefs9.7%
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 81.0%, 19.9 points above their season mean of 61.1% and 2.3 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%61 snaps
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%61 snaps
75Cameron ErvingG · Every snap100%61 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Full-time92%56 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time92%56 snaps
77Andrew WylieOT · Heavy rotation79%48 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Heavy rotation77%47 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Heavy rotation61%37 snaps
26Damien WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation56%34 snaps
81Blake BellTE · Rotational46%28 snaps
60Ryan HunterT · Situational23%14 snaps
25LeSean McCoyRB · Situational23%14 snaps
31Darrel WilliamsRB · Situational21%13 snaps
84De'Anthony ThomasWR · Situational11%7 snaps
42Anthony ShermanFB · Situational8%5 snaps
82Deon YelderTE · Situational7%4 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Situational3%2 snaps
74Martinas RankinT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Alex OkaforDENick AllegrettiGDorian O'DanielLBDarwin ThompsonRBEric FisherTGreg SenatTTyreek HillWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Matt MooreQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Brissett pass−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at KC 7. 32-T.Mathieu to KC 37 for 30 yards (7-J.Brissett).
Q2 7:27 · Colts · 2nd & 9 at KC 22 · gained nothing · -5.80 EP · −17.9% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
655
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0153%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1586%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.0124%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.1975%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Colts0Chiefs3
Field goal15 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Colts 9
Colts6Chiefs3
Colts7Chiefs3
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Chiefs 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Colts 31
2nd quarter60 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.6 seconds
Colts7Chiefs9
Colts7Chiefs10
Touchdown4 plays
Colts10Chiefs10
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Chiefs 12
Punt5 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Chiefs 22
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Colts 46
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Colts 16
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Colts 42
Colts13Chiefs10
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Chiefs 14
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Drive ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Colts 37
Drive ended2 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 23
Punt1 play
Punt12 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Chiefs 41
Punt4 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Chiefs 48 to the Chiefs 44
4th quarter44 plays
Colts16Chiefs10
Field goal14 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Chiefs 5
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 34
Colts19Chiefs10
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chiefs 12
Colts19Chiefs13
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Colts 8
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -10.5
Closing total
55.5
Colts moneyline
+407
Chiefs moneyline
-504
Chiefs closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 55.5; the game landed 32 — under by 23.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 59°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Colts 7 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Andy Reid
(6:11) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-L.McCoy to IND 25 for 21 yards (30-G.Odum). FUMBLES (30-G.Odum), RECOVERED by IND-58-B.Okereke at IND 14. 58-B.Okereke to IND 14 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
4th · 7:16IND +9% win prob(7:16) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 5 for -10 yards (90-G.Stewart).
4th · 5:48KC +9% win prob(5:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 13-B.Pringle to KC 34 for 27 yards (30-G.Odum).
