2019 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium
Indianapolis ColtsWinner
19
Kansas City Chiefs
13
Indianapolis Colts 19–13. Biggest swing: Q4 5:06, IND +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(5:06) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to KC 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Houston).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 5:06IND +17% win prob(5:06) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to KC 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Houston).
- Q2 · 7:27IND +16% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at KC 7. 32-T.Mathieu to KC 37 for 30 yards (7-J.Brissett).
- Q4 · 13:52KC +13% win prob(13:52) 25-M.Mack right end pushed ob at KC 36 for 3 yards (56-B.Niemann).
- Q3 · 8:43IND +12% win prob(8:43) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 42-A.Sherman INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke at IND 26. 58-B.Okereke to 50 for 24 yards (75-C.Erving). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 42-A.Sherman. PENALTY on KC-77-A.Wylie, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 37.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Colts | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 72 | 56 |
| Total yards | 333 (edge) | 325 |
| Yards per play | 4.6 | 5.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.01 (edge) | -0.09 |
| Success rate | 54% (edge) | 36% |
| Dropback rate | 43% | 80% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.16 | -0.02 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.14 (edge) | -0.35 |
| Third downs | 5/14 (edge) | 4/12 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | KC 25 | 13 | 79 | 5:58 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | IND | IND 30 | 13 | 78 | 5:18 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | KC | KC 25 | 13 | 75 | 4:36 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | IND | IND 25 | 8 | 8 | 2:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | 0 | 0:24 | Punt | |
| 6 | IND | IND 33 | 6 | 40 | 3:33 | Interception | |
| 7 | KC | KC 37 | 4 | 38 | 1:18 | Fumble | |
| 8 | IND | IND 14 | 4 | -2 | 1:23 | Punt | |
| 9 | KC | KC 38 | 9 | 15 | 2:50 | Punt | |
| 10 | IND | IND 12 | 11 | 69 | 1:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | KC | KC 26 | 2 | 0 | 0:10 | End of half | |
| 12 | IND | IND 22 | 8 | 22 | 3:56 | Punt | |
| 13 | KC | KC 20 | 6 | 48 | 2:32 | Punt | |
| 14 | IND | IND 12 | 12 | 52 | 6:10 | Punt | |
| 15 | KC | KC 5 | 4 | 0 | 1:08 | Punt | |
| 16 | IND | KC 48 | 14 | 45 | 8:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | KC | KC 25 | 6 | 23 | 2:38 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | IND | KC 33 | 7 | 21 | 2:35 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | KC | KC 25 | 8 | 47 | 1:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | IND | KC 47 | 3 | 0 | 1:16 | End of game |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 79 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- KC -10.5
- Closing total
- 55.5
- IND moneyline
- +407
- KC moneyline
- -504
Chiefs closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 55.5; the game landed 32 — under by 23.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Arrowhead Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- 59°F, wind 3 mph
- Referee
- Craig Wrolstad
- Rest
- IND 7 days · KC 7 days
- Coaches
- Frank Reich vs Andy Reid