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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville27
BY 7final margin
PanthersCarolina34
Jacksonville Jaguars 27 at Carolina Panthers 34. Final.
Panthers -3 ✓O 41 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 5
Carolina Panthers 34, Jaguars 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 3:46, 1st and 10, on R.Bonnafon — 19.5 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:46 · 1st and 10
R.Bonnafon
Panthers
(3:46) 39-R.Bonnafon up the middle for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.5
Panthers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Carolina Panthers 34–27. Biggest swing: Q4 3:46, Panthers +19.5% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
G.MinshewPanthersQ2 13:43(13:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at CAR 41 for -7 yards (97-M.Addison). FUMBLES (97-M.Addison), RECOVERED by CAR-53-B.Burns at CAR 44. 53-B.Burns for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.9pts
C.McCaffreyPanthersQ3 14:01(14:01) 22-C.McCaffrey left guard for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.43 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 3 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.03 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Panthers at 4 of 12 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Jaguars185 of 195 plays carry both curves
(3:46) 39-R.Bonnafon up the middle for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.5 for PanthersExpected points +5.26 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 4 points higher than the market did.play 163
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:46CAR +20% win prob(3:46) 39-R.Bonnafon up the middle for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:43JAX +18% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at CAR 41 for -7 yards (97-M.Addison). FUMBLES (97-M.Addison), RECOVERED by CAR-53-B.Burns at CAR 44. 53-B.Burns for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:01CAR +17% win prob(14:01) 22-C.McCaffrey left guard for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:31JAX +16% win prob(3:31) 15-G.Minshew FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 18, RECOVERED by CAR-25-E.Reid at JAX 24. 25-E.Reid to JAX 24 for no gain (27-L.Fournette).
4th · 2:33JAX +14% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at CAR 47 for -8 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at CAR 45. 98-M.Haynes to JAX 40 for 15 yards (23-R.Armstead). PENALTY on CAR-61-M.Paradis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 40.
1st · 7:34CAR +12% win prob(7:34) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.McCaffrey's 18-yard touchdown catch with 1:42 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th5:57J.Lambo·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Orzech+327–28
4th3:46R.Bonnafon·59-yd TD run59-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+627–34
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryPanthers
Jaguars6–2Panthers
508Total yards445
6.7Yards per play7.3
47%Success rate46%
46%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays9
26First downs19
2Sacks taken3
3Turnovers0
The read
Jaguars ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Jaguars: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.18Panthers: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Jaguars: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.00Panthers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Jaguars: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.43Panthers: +0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 76 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Panthers’s 61 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 5, Panthers 5.
NoteJaguars outgained Panthers 508-445 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's sack or hit rate, 5.9%, is past their previous low of 14.6% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 4.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Panthers5.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.9 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.92× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.9%, 11.9 points below their season mean of 17.8% and 1.9 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew sacked−17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at CAR 41 for -7 yards (97-M.Addison). FUMBLES (97-M.Addison), RECOVERED by CAR-53-B.Burns at CAR 44. 53-B.Burns for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:43 · Jaguars · 3rd & 6 at CAR 34 · lost 10 · -9.36 EP · −16.8% win probability
183 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 87 yards from the CAR 6 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
952
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.0675%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.3762%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0450%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.3310%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.2840%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Jaguars0Panthers6
Jaguars0Panthers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Jaguars 5
Jaguars6Panthers7
Jaguars7Panthers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Panthers 37
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 36
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Panthers 22
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Jaguars7Panthers13
Jaguars7Panthers14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 24 to the Jaguars 13
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Panthers 46
2nd quarter51 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Jaguars7Panthers20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Panthers 34
Jaguars7Panthers21
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 41
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Panthers 43
Jaguars13Panthers21
Jaguars14Panthers21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Panthers 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Jaguars 24
Jaguars17Panthers21
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Panthers 17
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 26
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Jaguars17Panthers27
Jaguars17Panthers28
Touchdown2 plays
Jaguars23Panthers28
Jaguars24Panthers28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Panthers 1
No good9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Jaguars 28
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Panthers 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 6 to the Panthers 41
4th quarter57 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the Jaguars 5
Jaguars27Panthers28
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the Panthers 20
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Jaguars27Panthers34
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Panthers 39
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Jaguars 37
Drive ended13 plays, from the Jaguars 5 to the Panthers 34
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.2 seconds
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
