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2019 Week 5 · Thu, Oct 3, 2019 · CenturyLink Field
Final
RamsLos Angeles29
BY 1final margin
SeahawksSeattle30
Los Angeles Rams 29 at Seattle Seahawks 30. Final.
Seahawks -1.5 no coverO 49 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 5
Seattle Seahawks 30, Rams 29 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:15, 4th and 6, on G.Zuerlein — 40.0 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:15 · 4th and 6
G.Zuerlein
Seahawks
(:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Seahawks closed -1.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Seattle Seahawks 30–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, Seahawks +40.0% win probability on one snap.
40.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.CarsonSeahawksQ4 2:34(2:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 32-C.Carson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.0pts
T.ThompsonSeahawksQ4 2:12(2:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 81-G.Everett. Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 81-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 33-T.Thompson at SEA 49. 33-T.Thompson to SEA 49 for no gain.
22.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 8 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.43 expected points per dropback, against Rams at +0.29 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Rams179 of 188 plays carry both curves
(:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Swing +40.0 for SeahawksExpected points +2.33 for SeahawksThe model had Rams 3 points higher than the market did.play 186
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:15LA +40% win prob(:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
4th · 2:34SEA +24% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 32-C.Carson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:12LA +22% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 81-G.Everett. Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 81-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 33-T.Thompson at SEA 49. 33-T.Thompson to SEA 49 for no gain.
4th · 1:00SEA +21% win prob(1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 81-G.Everett to SEA 30 for 28 yards (30-B.McDougald).
3rd · 0:28SEA +17% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 20-R.Penny to LA 17 for 30 yards (43-J.Johnson; 21-A.Talib). Penalty on LA-21-A.Talib, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 10:48SEA +13% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 18-C.Kupp ran ob at SEA 21 for 26 yards (26-Sq.Griffin).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Carson's 5-yard touchdown catch with 2:34 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:29G.Zuerlein·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–0
1st4:59G.Zuerlein·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+36–0
4th13:41J.Myers·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+326–24
4th9:23G.Zuerlein·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+329–24
4th2:34C.Carson·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom R.Wilsonfrom R.Wilson · two-point no goodLead never changed again+629–30
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Rams5–3Seahawks
477Total yards431
7.0Yards per play6.5
44%Success rate45%
27%Third-down rate30%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
10Explosive plays8
24First downs23
0Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Rams: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.16Seahawks: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Rams: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.43Seahawks: +0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Rams: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.06Seahawks: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 68 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 66 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Rams 6, Seahawks 5.
NoteRams outgained Seahawks 477-431 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
SEA's pass rate over expected, −12.9 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −11.4 pts in week 1.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 4.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Seahawks10.0%
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.9 pts, 10.3 points below their season mean of -2.7 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Zuerlein−40% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Q4 0:15 · Rams · 4th & 6 at SEA 26 · gained nothing · -2.33 EP · −40.1% win probability
177 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
42%
Yards
906
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2298%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1360%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.3019%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.2629%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.510%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Rams0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 27
Rams3Seahawks0
Field goal4 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Seahawks 24
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 41
Rams6Seahawks0
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Seahawks 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Rams6Seahawks6
Rams6Seahawks7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 13
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 34
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 24
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Rams6Seahawks13
Rams6Seahawks14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Rams 40
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 20
No good11 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Rams 30
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Rams12Seahawks14
Rams13Seahawks14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Seahawks 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Rams19Seahawks14
Rams20Seahawks14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 8
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 49
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 1 to the Rams 2
Rams20Seahawks20
Rams20Seahawks21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 47 to the Rams 10
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.2 seconds
Rams26Seahawks21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 17
4th quarter56 plays
Rams26Seahawks24
Field goal4 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Rams 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Rams29Seahawks24
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 18
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Rams29Seahawks30
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 36
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Rams 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
No good12 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Seahawks 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -1.5
Closing total
49
Rams moneyline
+111
Seahawks moneyline
-122
Seahawks closed -1.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49; the game landed 59 — over by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 56°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Rams 4 days · Seahawks 4 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Pete Carroll
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 4:00SEA +12% win prob(4:00) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 81-G.Everett to SEA 1 for 32 yards (56-M.Kendricks).
2nd · 5:37LA +10% win prob(5:37) 30-T.Gurley right tackle to SEA 16 for 4 yards (90-J.Clowney; 54-B.Wagner). FUMBLES (90-J.Clowney), RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Clowney at SEA 17. 90-J.Clowney to SEA 17 for no gain (89-T.Higbee). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
