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Minnesota Vikings 28 at New York Giants 10. Final.
Vikings -5.5 ✓U 44 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 5
Minnesota Vikings 28, Giants 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 12:16, 2nd and 8, on D.Slayton — 7.9 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:16 · 2nd and 8
D.Slayton
Giants
(12:16) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Vikings closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Minnesota Vikings 28–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:16, Giants +7.9% win probability on one snap.
7.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.ThielenVikingsQ2 5:13(5:13) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to NYG 41 for 44 yards (20-Ja.Jenkins; 55-D.Mayo).
6.7pts
D.CookGiantsQ2 2:22(2:22) 33-D.Cook right tackle to NYG 5 for 19 yards (21-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (21-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by NYG-54-T.Skipper at NYG 1. 54-T.Skipper to NYG 1 for no gain (19-A.Thielen).
6.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 15 chunk plays, against Giants at 2 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.65 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Vikings166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(12:16) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +7.9 for GiantsExpected points +3.88 for GiantsThe model had Giants 17 points higher than the market did.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:16NYG +8% win prob(12:16) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:22MIN +7% win prob(2:22) 33-D.Cook right tackle to NYG 5 for 19 yards (21-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (21-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by NYG-54-T.Skipper at NYG 1. 54-T.Skipper to NYG 1 for no gain (19-A.Thielen).
2nd · 5:13NYG +7% win prob(5:13) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to NYG 41 for 44 yards (20-Ja.Jenkins; 55-D.Mayo).
2nd · 0:01MIN +6% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right (20-Ja.Jenkins).
1st · 12:43NYG +6% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at NYG 37 for 13 yards (41-A.Bethea).
2nd · 15:00NYG +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Bailey's 31-yard field goal with 8:50 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:50D.Bailey·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.CuttingLead never changed again+33–0
4th4:13D.Bailey·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+328–10
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryGiants
Vikings7–1Giants
491Total yards211
7.8Yards per play3.4
49%Success rate37%
45%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
15Explosive plays2
21First downs13
3Sacks taken4
1Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.34Vikings: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.20Giants: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.65Vikings: +0.65 expected points added per play
−0.21Giants: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Vikings: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.18Giants: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 63 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Giants’s 62 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Giants 3.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.5% in week 4 against 62.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Giants9.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NYG's sack or hit rate, 9.7% against a season mean of 14.4% — and NYG swings 6.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chad SladeGTae DavisILBAlec OgletreeLBLorenzo CarterOLBEric SmithOTAlex TanneyQBSaquon BarkleyRB
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Spencer PulleyCEli ManningQBKaden SmithTE
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Cook right−13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:22) 33-D.Cook right tackle to NYG 5 for 19 yards (21-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (21-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by NYG-54-T.Skipper at NYG 1. 54-T.Skipper to NYG 1 for no gain (19-A.Thielen).
Q2 2:22 · Vikings · 2nd & 6 at NYG 24 · gained 19 · -3.39 EP · −13.0% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 98 yards from the MIN 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
41%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.2578%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.5335%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.3172%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.7943%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1158%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.1333%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-1.0240%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Vikings3Giants0
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Giants 13
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Vikings 39
The period ended12 plays, from the Vikings 2 to the Giants 20
2nd quarter60 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Vikings9Giants0
Vikings10Giants0
Touchdown2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Vikings10Giants6
Vikings10Giants7
Touchdown7 plays, from midfield to the Vikings 35
Vikings13Giants7
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Giants 28
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 44
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Giants 24
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Vikings15Giants7
Vikings18Giants7
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Giants 2
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Vikings18Giants10
Field goal18 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Vikings 5
Vikings24Giants10
Vikings25Giants10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Giants 9
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Vikings 3
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter38 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Vikings 16
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Vikings 23
Vikings28Giants10
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Giants 25
Intercepted5 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 25
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -5.5
Closing total
44
Vikings moneyline
-243
Giants moneyline
+213
Vikings closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 44; the game landed 38 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 67°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south; 0.01 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Pat Shurmur
1st · 11:40
NYG +5% win prob
(11:40) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 33-D.Cook to NYG 13 for 22 yards (97-D.Lawrence II; 55-D.Mayo).
3rd · 9:31NYG +5% win prob(9:31) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PENALTY on MIN-98-L.Joseph, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 10 - No Play.
