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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 33 at Washington Commanders 7. Final.
Patriots -15.5 ✓U 42 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 5
New England Patriots 33, Commanders 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:02, 2nd and 10, on R.Izzo — 7.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:02 · 2nd and 10
R.Izzo
Patriots
(9:02) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 85-R.Izzo to WAS 46 for 29 yards (24-J.Norman).
7.5
Patriots closed -15.5 and covered, winning by 26.
New England Patriots 33–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:02, Patriots +7.5% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.BradyCommandersQ1 11:02(11:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 28 for -10 yards (sack split by 91-R.Kerrigan and 98-M.Ioannidis).
5.2pts
S.SimsCommandersQ1 9:39(9:39) 15-S.Sims right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around
7.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.74 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.50 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 25% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Commanders at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 22.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 54 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Patriots172 of 179 plays carry both curves
(9:02) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 85-R.Izzo to WAS 46 for 29 yards (24-J.Norman).
Swing −7.5 for CommandersExpected points −2.66 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 51 points higher than the market did.play 23
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:02WAS +7% win prob(9:02) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 85-R.Izzo to WAS 46 for 29 yards (24-J.Norman).
1st · 9:39WAS +7% win prob(9:39) 15-S.Sims right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around
1st · 11:02NE +5% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 28 for -10 yards (sack split by 91-R.Kerrigan and 98-M.Ioannidis).
2nd · 13:38NE +5% win prob(13:38) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.
2nd · 0:30WAS +4% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 26-A.Peterson right guard to WAS 28 for 3 yards (58-J.Collins).
1st · 5:28WAS +4% win prob(5:28) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 10-J.Gordon pushed ob at WAS 43 for 24 yards (35-M.Nicholson).
1st · 15:00WAS +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Nugent's 37-yard field goal with 10:39 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.74 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Patriots: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.50Commanders: −0.50 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Patriots: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.74Commanders: −0.74 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Patriots: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.04Commanders: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 74 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Commanders’s 53 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 7, Commanders 1.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.50.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Commanders17.0%
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.7%, 9.5 points above their season mean of 16.2% and 1.3 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Ross PierschbacherCAaron ColvinCBBrandon ScherffGJosh Harvey-ClemonsILBCase KeenumQBVernon DavisTEJordan ReedTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Chase RoullierCDwayne HaskinsQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.McCoy pass−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:58) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle intended for 15-S.Sims INTERCEPTED by 30-J.McCourty at WAS 27. 30-J.McCourty to WAS 11 for 16 yards (72-D.Penn).
Q2 0:58 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at WAS 25 · gained nothing · -5.01 EP · −19.1% win probability
170 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 88 yards from the NE 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
37%
Yards
665
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR42+0.4860%
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR29-0.5366%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.2170%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12-1.0175%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0050%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 39
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Patriots 38
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
Patriots0Commanders6
Patriots0Commanders7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 35
Patriots6Commanders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Commanders 6
Punt5 plays
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Commanders 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 36
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays
Patriots9Commanders7
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Commanders 19
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 26
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Commanders 48
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 12
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 1 to the Commanders 26
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Patriots12Commanders7
Field goal5 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Patriots18Commanders7
Patriots19Commanders7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Commanders 29
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Patriots 47
Patriots25Commanders7
Patriots26Commanders7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Commanders 14
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 39
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Patriots 40
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 12 to the Commanders 27
4th quarter39 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 24
Patriots32Commanders7
Patriots33Commanders7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Commanders 9
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 41
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Patriots 19
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 40
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Patriots 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Patriots 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -15.5
Closing total
42
Patriots moneyline
-963
Commanders moneyline
+695
Patriots closed -15.5 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south; 0.03 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Jay Gruden
(15:00) 74-G.Christian reported in as eligible. 12-C.McCoy pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 37 for 12 yards (24-S.Gilmore).
2nd · 6:18NE +4% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 18-T.Quinn to WAS 20 for 8 yards (31-J.Jones). FUMBLES (31-J.Jones), touched at WAS 19, RECOVERED by NE-58-J.Collins at WAS 16. 58-J.Collins to WAS 16 for no gain (10-P.Richardson).
