For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2019 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2019 · FedExField

New England PatriotsWinner

33

Washington Commanders

7

NE -15.5 ✓U 42 ✓

New England Patriots 33–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:02, WAS +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WASNE
Q1 · 9:02NE WAS NE ball · 2nd & 10NE 79%

(9:02) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 85-R.Izzo to WAS 46 for 29 yards (24-J.Norman).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 9:02WAS +7% win prob(9:02) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 85-R.Izzo to WAS 46 for 29 yards (24-J.Norman).
  2. Q1 · 9:39WAS +7% win prob(9:39) 15-S.Sims right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around
  3. Q1 · 11:02NE +5% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 28 for -10 yards (sack split by 91-R.Kerrigan and 98-M.Ioannidis).
  4. Q2 · 13:38NE +5% win prob(13:38) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPatriotsCommanders
Offensive plays7453
Total yards442 (edge)223
Yards per play6.0 (edge)4.2
Expected points added / play0.13 (edge)-0.50
Success rate45% (edge)25%
Dropback rate64%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)-0.74
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.09-0.04 (edge)
Third downs5/15 (edge)1/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)10
Sacks taken4 (edge)6
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.50.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 25652:32Punt
2NENE 169122:10Punt
3WASWAS 333670:52Touchdown
4NENE 258752:17Touchdown
5WASWAS 255-70:58Punt
6NENE 437483:41Turnover on downs
7WASWAS 247144:00Punt
8NENE 208212:55Turnover on downs
9WASWAS 25501:57Punt
10NENE 315212:20Punt
11WASWAS 12170:09Fumble
12NEWAS 16340:50Interception
13WASWAS 16423:30Punt
14NENE 284110:51Punt
15WASWAS 25100:07Interception
16NEWAS 11460:21Turnover on downs
17WASWAS 25230:30End of half
18NENE 259754:03Touchdown
19WASWAS 257353:17Punt
20NENE 127883:05Touchdown
21WASWAS 256141:11Punt
22NENE 175142:02Punt
23WASWAS 12743:00Punt
24NENE 4211584:08Touchdown
25WASWAS 257113:03Punt
26NENE 16431:27Punt
27WASWAS 35450:41Punt
28NENE 6461:43Punt
29WASWAS 404232:20End of game

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 88 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NE -15.5
Closing total
42
NE moneyline
-963
WAS moneyline
+695

Patriots closed -15.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
70°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
NE 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Jay Gruden