2019 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2019 · FedExField
New England PatriotsWinner
33
Washington Commanders
7
New England Patriots 33–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:02, WAS +7% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(9:02) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 85-R.Izzo to WAS 46 for 29 yards (24-J.Norman).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 9:02WAS +7% win prob(9:02) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 85-R.Izzo to WAS 46 for 29 yards (24-J.Norman).
- Q1 · 9:39WAS +7% win prob(9:39) 15-S.Sims right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around
- Q1 · 11:02NE +5% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 28 for -10 yards (sack split by 91-R.Kerrigan and 98-M.Ioannidis).
- Q2 · 13:38NE +5% win prob(13:38) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Patriots | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 74 | 53 |
| Total yards | 442 (edge) | 223 |
| Yards per play | 6.0 (edge) | 4.2 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.13 (edge) | -0.50 |
| Success rate | 45% (edge) | 25% |
| Dropback rate | 64% | 66% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.26 (edge) | -0.74 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.09 | -0.04 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/15 (edge) | 1/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 10 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 10 |
| Sacks taken | 4 (edge) | 6 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.50.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | WAS 25 | 6 | 5 | 2:32 | Punt | |
| 2 | NE | NE 16 | 9 | 12 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 3 | WAS | WAS 33 | 3 | 67 | 0:52 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | NE | NE 25 | 8 | 75 | 2:17 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | WAS | WAS 25 | 5 | -7 | 0:58 | Punt | |
| 6 | NE | NE 43 | 7 | 48 | 3:41 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | WAS | WAS 24 | 7 | 14 | 4:00 | Punt | |
| 8 | NE | NE 20 | 8 | 21 | 2:55 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | WAS | WAS 25 | 5 | 0 | 1:57 | Punt | |
| 10 | NE | NE 31 | 5 | 21 | 2:20 | Punt | |
| 11 | WAS | WAS 12 | 1 | 7 | 0:09 | Fumble | |
| 12 | NE | WAS 16 | 3 | 4 | 0:50 | Interception | |
| 13 | WAS | WAS 1 | 6 | 42 | 3:30 | Punt | |
| 14 | NE | NE 28 | 4 | 11 | 0:51 | Punt | |
| 15 | WAS | WAS 25 | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | Interception | |
| 16 | NE | WAS 11 | 4 | 6 | 0:21 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | WAS | WAS 25 | 2 | 3 | 0:30 | End of half | |
| 18 | NE | NE 25 | 9 | 75 | 4:03 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | WAS | WAS 25 | 7 | 35 | 3:17 | Punt | |
| 20 | NE | NE 12 | 7 | 88 | 3:05 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | WAS | WAS 25 | 6 | 14 | 1:11 | Punt | |
| 22 | NE | NE 17 | 5 | 14 | 2:02 | Punt | |
| 23 | WAS | WAS 12 | 7 | 4 | 3:00 | Punt | |
| 24 | NE | NE 42 | 11 | 58 | 4:08 | Touchdown | |
| 25 | WAS | WAS 25 | 7 | 11 | 3:03 | Punt | |
| 26 | NE | NE 16 | 4 | 3 | 1:27 | Punt | |
| 27 | WAS | WAS 35 | 4 | 5 | 0:41 | Punt | |
| 28 | NE | NE 6 | 4 | 6 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 29 | WAS | WAS 40 | 4 | 23 | 2:20 | End of game |
0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 88 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -15.5
- Closing total
- 42
- NE moneyline
- -963
- WAS moneyline
- +695
Patriots closed -15.5 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- FedExField
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 70°F, wind 8 mph
- Referee
- Clay Martin
- Rest
- NE 7 days · WAS 7 days
- Coaches
- Bill Belichick vs Jay Gruden