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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 at New Orleans Saints 31. Final.
Saints -3 ✓O 46 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 5
New Orleans Saints 31, Buccaneers 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 0:18, 2nd and 16, on C.Godwin — 13.8 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:18 · 2nd and 16
C.Godwin
Buccaneers
(:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Saints closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
New Orleans Saints 31–24. Biggest swing: Q1 0:18, Buccaneers +13.8% win probability on one snap.
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.BuntingBuccaneersQ1 1:13(1:13) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Bunting at NO 34. 26-S.Bunting to NO 20 for 14 yards (78-E.McCoy).
10.5pts
M.ThomasSaintsQ2 10:20(10:20) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 7, YAC 7
9.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Saints won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Buccaneers at 3 of 11 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 5 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Saints at 1 giveaway.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Buccaneers161 of 170 plays carry both curves
(:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.8 for SaintsExpected points −3.67 for SaintsThe model had Buccaneers 3 points higher than the market did.play 39
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:18NO +14% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:13TB +11% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Bunting at NO 34. 26-S.Bunting to NO 20 for 14 yards (78-E.McCoy).
2nd · 10:20NO +9% win prob(10:20) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 7, YAC 7
2nd · 0:37NO +9% win prob(:37) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 87-J.Cook for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 3
3rd · 13:50NO +8% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 33, YAC 0
3rd · 5:06NO +7% win prob(5:06) (Shotgun) 25-P.Barber right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:53
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Cook's 9-yard touchdown catch with 0:37 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:02W.Lutz·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+30–3
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Buccaneers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.14Saints: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Buccaneers: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.27Saints: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Buccaneers: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.08Saints: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 55 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Saints’s 66 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Saints 5.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Saints25.0%
leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 8.8 points above their season mean of 16.2% and 1.5 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Ken CrawleyCBSaquan HamptonDBTrey HendricksonDENick EastonGDrew BreesQBEthan GreenidgeTLil'Jordan HumphreyWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater pass−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(1:13) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Bunting at NO 34. 26-S.Bunting to NO 20 for 14 yards (78-E.McCoy).
Q1 1:13 · Saints · 3rd & 8 at NO 24 · gained nothing · -4.90 EP · −14.7% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 91 yards from the NO 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
42%
Yards
709
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0266%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0959%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3656%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0288%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3443%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.4133%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.0550%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 47
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Saints 47
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 22
Buccaneers0Saints3
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Buccaneers 11
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Buccaneers6Saints3
Buccaneers7Saints3
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter35 plays
Buccaneers7Saints9
Buccaneers7Saints10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Buccaneers 14
Buccaneers10Saints10
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 24
Buccaneers10Saints16
Buccaneers10Saints17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Buccaneers10Saints23
Buccaneers10Saints24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 33
Buccaneers16Saints24
Buccaneers17Saints24
Touchdown21 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 2
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 32
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 43
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 9 to the Saints 32
4th quarter48 plays
Buccaneers17Saints30
Buccaneers17Saints31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Buccaneers 12
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 39
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 39
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Buccaneers 22
Buccaneers23Saints31
Buccaneers24Saints31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Saints 26
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -3
Closing total
46
Buccaneers moneyline
+133
Saints moneyline
-148
Saints closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 46; the game landed 55 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Sean Payton
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NO +6% win prob
(12:53) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas to TB 24 for 18 yards (28-V.Hargreaves). Pass 15, YAC 3
2nd · 2:00NO +6% win prob(2:00) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 89-J.Hill to TB 10 for 26 yards (59-D.Bond). Pass 16, YAC 10
