2019 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
24
New Orleans SaintsWinner
31
New Orleans Saints 31–24. Biggest swing: Q1 0:18, NO +14% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 0:18NO +14% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 1:13TB +11% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Bunting at NO 34. 26-S.Bunting to NO 20 for 14 yards (78-E.McCoy).
- Q2 · 10:20NO +9% win prob(10:20) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 7, YAC 7
- Q2 · 0:37NO +9% win prob(:37) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 87-J.Cook for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 3
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Buccaneers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 55 | 66 |
| Total yards | 252 | 458 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.6 | 6.9 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.02 | 0.14 (edge) |
| Success rate | 42% | 47% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 65% | 62% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 | 0.27 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.04 (edge) | -0.08 |
| Third downs | 3/11 | 8/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 23 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | TB 25 | 7 | 27 | 2:50 | Punt | |
| 2 | NO | NO 14 | 7 | 33 | 2:57 | Punt | |
| 3 | TB | TB 19 | 4 | 3 | 0:50 | Punt | |
| 4 | NO | NO 36 | 9 | 53 | 4:25 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 7 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 6 | NO | NO 22 | 3 | 2 | 1:16 | Interception | |
| 7 | TB | NO 20 | 3 | 20 | 0:54 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | NO | NO 25 | 11 | 75 | 4:57 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | TB | TB 25 | 9 | 51 | 4:40 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | NO | NO 25 | 10 | 75 | 5:01 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | TB | TB 25 | 2 | -4 | 0:32 | End of half | |
| 12 | NO | NO 25 | 5 | 75 | 1:16 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | TB | TB 25 | 19 | 70 | 8:41 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | NO | NO 25 | 6 | 2 | 1:21 | Punt | |
| 15 | TB | TB 35 | 4 | 13 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 16 | NO | NO 9 | 14 | 91 | 6:27 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | TB | TB 33 | 5 | -9 | 1:17 | Punt | |
| 18 | NO | NO 30 | 4 | 9 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 19 | TB | TB 20 | 6 | 1 | 2:36 | Punt | |
| 20 | NO | NO 35 | 9 | 43 | 4:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | TB | TB 22 | 7 | 73 | 0:57 | Touchdown | |
| 22 | NO | TB 49 | 2 | 0 | 0:13 | End of game |
0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 91 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NO -3
- Closing total
- 46
- TB moneyline
- +133
- NO moneyline
- -148
Saints closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 46; the game landed 55 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Superdome
- Roof / surface
- dome · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Brad Allen
- Rest
- TB 7 days · NO 7 days
- Coaches
- Bruce Arians vs Sean Payton
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.