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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2019 · State Farm Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta33
BY 1final margin
CardinalsArizona34
Atlanta Falcons 33 at Arizona Cardinals 34. Final.
Falcons -3 upsetO 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 6
Arizona Cardinals 34, Falcons 33 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 5:18, 3rd and 5, on D.Johnson — 18.6 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:18 · 3rd and 5
D.Johnson
Cardinals
(5:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-D.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-59-D.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Dome
Falcons closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 34–33 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:18, Cardinals +18.6% win probability on one snap.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.EdmondsCardinalsQ2 13:08(13:08) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 29-C.Edmonds for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsQ4 1:533-M.Bryant extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.
13.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Falcons at 8 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Falcons173 of 186 plays carry both curves
(5:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-D.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-59-D.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Swing +18.6 for CardinalsExpected points +2.94 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 6 points higher than the market did.play 166
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:18ARI +19% win prob(5:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-D.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-59-D.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 1:53ATL +13% win prob3-M.Bryant extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.
2nd · 13:08ARI +13% win prob(13:08) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 29-C.Edmonds for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:02ATL +12% win prob(8:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 23 for -8 yards (sack split by 56-T.Suggs and 55-Cha.Jones). FUMBLES (56-T.Suggs) [56-T.Suggs], recovered by ATL-68-J.Brown at ATL 23. 68-J.Brown to ATL 25 for 2 yards (33-B.Murphy Jr.).
2nd · 15:00ARI +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 14-D.Byrd to ATL 1 for 58 yards (26-I.Oliver). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
4th · 12:10ARI +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Johnson's 14-yard touchdown catch with 5:18 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Cardinals ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.32Falcons: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.26Cardinals: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.49Falcons: +0.49 expected points added per play
+0.50Cardinals: +0.50 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Falcons: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.16Cardinals: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 63 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 62 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Cardinals 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 2.9% in week 5.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
ARI's pass rate over expected turned over: −12.9 pts in week 5 against +5.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Cardinals15.0%
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 10.2 points below their season mean of 10.2% and 1.5 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass+17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 14-D.Byrd to ATL 1 for 58 yards (26-I.Oliver). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
Q2 15:00 · Cardinals · 1st & 10 at ARI 41 · gained 58 · +3.86 EP · +16.8% win probability
171 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 93 yards from the ARI 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.21
Success rate
46%
Yards
886
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.3967%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.2577%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.2833%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.6182%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.1245%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR9+0.1189%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.6333%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.3617%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Falcons6Cardinals0
Falcons7Cardinals0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Cardinals 9
Falcons7Cardinals3
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Falcons 21
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Cardinals 49
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 39
2nd quarter49 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Falcons7Cardinals9
Falcons7Cardinals10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 41 to the Falcons 1
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Falcons 37
Falcons7Cardinals16
Falcons7Cardinals17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Falcons 1
Falcons10Cardinals17
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Cardinals 11
Falcons10Cardinals20
Field goal18 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Falcons 4
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Falcons10Cardinals26
Falcons10Cardinals27
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Falcons 20
Falcons13Cardinals27
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Cardinals 26
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 47
Falcons19Cardinals27
Falcons20Cardinals27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 7 to the Cardinals 7
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 32
4th quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Falcons26Cardinals27
Falcons27Cardinals27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Cardinals 6
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 31
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Falcons27Cardinals33
Falcons27Cardinals34
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Falcons 14
Falcons33Cardinals34
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Cardinals 12
The period ended10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -3
Closing total
52.5
Falcons moneyline
-161
Cardinals moneyline
+145
Falcons closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 67 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Kliff Kingsbury
(12:10) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 81-A.Hooper pushed ob at ARI 14 for 30 yards (20-T.Brock Sr.) [90-J.Bullard]. Penalty on ARI-33-B.Murphy Jr., Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 10:56ARI +10% win prob(10:56) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:03ARI +8% win prob(7:03) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 87-J.Graham pushed ob at ARI 40 for 21 yards (32-B.Baker). PENALTY on ARI-32-B.Baker, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ARI 40. This play was a fleaflicker.
