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2019 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2019 · Tottenham Stadium
Final
PanthersCarolina37
BY 11final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay26
Carolina Panthers 37 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26. Final.
Panthers -2 ✓O 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 6
Carolina Panthers 37, Buccaneers 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 15:00, 1st and 10, on J.Bradberry — 11.8 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00 · 1st and 10
J.Bradberry
Panthers
(15:00) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at TB 29. 24-J.Bradberry to TB 29 for no gain (13-M.Evans).
16.3 mph wind
Panthers closed -2 and covered, winning by 11.
Carolina Panthers 37–26. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Panthers +11.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
11.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBuccaneersQ1 8:46(8:46) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CAR 1, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.
9.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetBuccaneersQ2 0:08(:08) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to 50, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-B.Zylstra.
9.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 6 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Panthers189 of 199 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at TB 29. 24-J.Bradberry to TB 29 for no gain (13-M.Evans).
Swing −11.8 for BuccaneersExpected points −4.75 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 10 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 15:00CAR +12% win prob(15:00) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at TB 29. 24-J.Bradberry to TB 29 for no gain (13-M.Evans).
2nd · 0:08TB +10% win prob(:08) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to 50, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-B.Zylstra.
1st · 8:46TB +9% win prob(8:46) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CAR 1, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.
2nd · 14:17TB +6% win prob(14:17) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CAR 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 33 for 10 yards (29-R.Smith). FUMBLES (29-R.Smith), RECOVERED by TB-51-K.Minter at CAR 37. 51-K.Minter to CAR 37 for no gain (28-R.Gaulden).
1st · 1:11TB +6% win prob(1:11) 76-B.Witzmann reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:26TB +6% win prob(13:26) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 80-O.Howard pushed ob at CAR 5 for 30 yards (97-M.Addison).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Slye's 49-yard field goal with 13:25 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:25J.Slye·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+33–0
Buccaneers ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.18Buccaneers: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Panthers: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.24Buccaneers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Panthers: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.09Buccaneers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 62 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 77 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 5, Buccaneers 5.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Panthers 411-269 but lost the turnover battle 6-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's early-down pass rate, 81.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 4.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 62.8% in week 5.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 63 dropbacks
Buccaneers8.8%
inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 81.0%, 20.0 points above their season mean of 61.0% and 1.6 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston sacked−11% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at CAR 28 for -7 yards (92-V.Butler). FUMBLES (92-V.Butler) [94-E.Obada], RECOVERED by CAR-55-B.Irvin at CAR 29. 55-B.Irvin to CAR 29 for no gain (74-A.Marpet).
Q2 1:16 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 19 at CAR 21 · lost 8 · -4.00 EP · −11.0% win probability
187 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 33 drives, personnel groupings on 199 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 33 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 99 yards from the CAR 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
39%
Yards
679
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.0286%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0267%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1158%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.9057%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.480%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Panthers3Buccaneers0
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Buccaneers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 31
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to midfield
Panthers9Buccaneers0
Panthers10Buccaneers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Panthers 1 to the Buccaneers 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 27
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
Panthers10Buccaneers6
Panthers10Buccaneers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Panthers 5
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 31
Intercepted4 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 32
Panthers16Buccaneers7
Panthers17Buccaneers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Buccaneers 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 12
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Panthers 32
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Buccaneers 36
No good1 play
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 38
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 24
Panthers20Buccaneers7
Field goal5 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Buccaneers 28
Intercepted2 plays
Panthers26Buccaneers7
Panthers27Buccaneers7
Touchdown3 plays
Panthers27Buccaneers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 36
The period ended11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 11
4th quarter68 plays
Panthers33Buccaneers10
Panthers34Buccaneers10
Touchdown2 plays
Panthers34Buccaneers16
Panthers34Buccaneers18
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 10
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 35
Panthers37Buccaneers18
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Buccaneers 7
Panthers37Buccaneers24
Panthers37Buccaneers26
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 3
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 34
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 45
Drive ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 23
The period ended1 play
No good2 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Panthers 20
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
