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2019 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2019 · Tottenham Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

26

CAR -2 ✓O 48.5 ✓

Carolina Panthers 37–26. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, CAR +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑CAR ↓
Q1 · 15:00CAR — TB TB ball · 1st & 10CAR 55%

(15:00) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at TB 29. 24-J.Bradberry to TB 29 for no gain (13-M.Evans).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 15:00CAR +12% win prob(15:00) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at TB 29. 24-J.Bradberry to TB 29 for no gain (13-M.Evans).
  2. Q2 · 0:08TB +10% win prob(:08) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to 50, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-B.Zylstra.
  3. Q1 · 8:46TB +9% win prob(8:46) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CAR 1, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.
  4. Q2 · 14:17TB +6% win prob(14:17) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CAR 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 33 for 10 yards (29-R.Smith). FUMBLES (29-R.Smith), RECOVERED by TB-51-K.Minter at CAR 37. 51-K.Minter to CAR 37 for no gain (28-R.Gaulden).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersBuccaneers
Offensive plays6277
Total yards269411 (edge)
Yards per play4.35.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.02 (edge)-0.18
Success rate34%43% (edge)
Dropback rate55%82%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.16 (edge)-0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.230.09 (edge)
Third downs3/155/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)66
First downs gained on snaps1524 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)7
Turnovers0 (edge)6

Buccaneers outgained Panthers 411–269 but lost the turnover battle 6–0. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 25200:10Interception
2CARTB 294-21:30Turnover on downs
3TBTB 25561:24Punt
4CARCAR 25400:26Punt
5TBTB 315192:53Punt
6CARCAR 113847:32Touchdown
7TBTB 25532:03Punt
8TBCAR 374371:19Touchdown
9CARCAR 25501:33Punt
10TBTB 154141:59Interception
11CARTB 365361:39Touchdown
12TBTB 2513496:25Fumble
13CARCAR 29430:26Punt
14TBTB 215150:40Punt
15CAR—100:01Turnover on downs
16CARCAR 256202:40Punt
17TBTB 15492:01Punt
18CARCAR 335391:58Turnover on downs
19TBTB 25200:11Interception
20CARTB 8280:05Touchdown
21TBTB 258492:38Turnover on downs
22CARCAR 2512755:32Touchdown
23TBTB 258622:04Touchdown
24CARCAR 255-40:59Punt
25TBTB 27400:22Punt
26CARCAR 30441:35Punt
27CARTB 174-41:59Turnover on downs
28TBTB 2513773:09Touchdown
29CARCAR 25591:48Punt
30TBTB 236220:36Interception
31CARTB 24411:11Turnover on downs
32TBTB 315490:56Interception
33CARCAR 20100:16End of game

0 of 33 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CAR -2
Closing total
48.5
CAR moneyline
-125
TB moneyline
+113

Panthers closed -2 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 63 — over by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Tottenham Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
61°F, wind 14 mph
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
CAR 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Bruce Arians

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.