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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:15 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati17
BY 6final margin
RavensBaltimore23
Cincinnati Bengals 17 at Baltimore Ravens 23. Final.
Ravens -10.5 no coverU 47 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 6
Baltimore Ravens 23, Bengals 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 15:00 — 22.8 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00
Unnamed on the sheet
Bengals
9-J.Tucker kicks 57 yards from BAL 35 to CIN 8. 40-B.Wilson for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.8
Ravens closed -10.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 23–17. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Bengals +22.8% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.IngramRavensQ1 14:48(14:48) 21-M.Ingram left guard to BAL 25 for no gain (57-G.Pratt).
8.3pts
L.JacksonRavensQ1 14:15(14:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left tackle to CIN 39 for 36 yards (27-D.Kirkpatrick).
12.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.45 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Bengals at 5 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Bengals at 5 of 11 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Bengals170 of 182 plays carry both curves
Q1 · 15:00Bengals 6 — Ravens 0CIN ballBAL 84%
Bengals 16%Ravens 84%
9-J.Tucker kicks 57 yards from BAL 35 to CIN 8. 40-B.Wilson for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −22.8 for RavensExpected points −6.23 for RavensThe model had Bengals 28 points higher than the market did.play 2
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 15:00BAL +23% win prob9-J.Tucker kicks 57 yards from BAL 35 to CIN 8. 40-B.Wilson for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:15BAL +12% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left tackle to CIN 39 for 36 yards (27-D.Kirkpatrick).
1st · 14:48BAL +8% win prob(14:48) 21-M.Ingram left guard to BAL 25 for no gain (57-G.Pratt).
1st · 8:52CIN +5% win prob(8:52) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right tackle to CIN 35 for 6 yards (22-W.Jackson III). PENALTY on BAL-77-B.Bozeman, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 41 - No Play.
1st · 12:15CIN +4% win prob(12:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 81-H.Hurst to CIN 21 for 4 yards (59-N.Vigil).
2nd · 2:28CIN +4% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey (57-J.Bynes) at BAL 8. 44-M.Humphrey to BAL 22 for 14 yards (89-D.Sample).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Ingram's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 4:06 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st15:00B.Wilson·92-yd return TD92-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+77–0
Ravens ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Bengals: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.16Ravens: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Bengals: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.16Ravens: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.45Bengals: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.16Ravens: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 55 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Ravens’s 73 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Ravens 3.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Ravens11.9%
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.8%, 12.6 points below their season mean of 15.4% and 1.3 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jimmy SmithCBAnthony AverettCBDaylon MackDTBen PowersGPatrick OnwuasorILBTrace McSorleyQBMarquise BrownWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Robert Griffin IIIQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Tucker kicks+24% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
9-J.Tucker kicks 57 yards from BAL 35 to CIN 8. 40-B.Wilson for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 15:00 · Bengals · Kickoff at BAL 35 · gained nothing · +6.23 EP · +24.1% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 83 yards from the BAL 15 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
41%
Yards
747
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0480%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.2848%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.1793%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR13+0.198%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.2120%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-1.0050%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Bengals6Ravens0
Bengals7Ravens0
Touchdown2 plays
Bengals7Ravens6
Bengals7Ravens7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 21
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
Bengals7Ravens13
Bengals7Ravens14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Bengals 1
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 33
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Bengals 24
2nd quarter51 plays
Bengals7Ravens17
Field goal2 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 38
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Bengals 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Ravens 21
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Ravens 36
Bengals10Ravens17
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Ravens 4
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 40
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Bengals 42
Punt12 plays, from the Bengals 9 to midfield
Bengals10Ravens20
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Bengals 31
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 48
Bengals10Ravens23
Field goal22 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Bengals 2
Bengals16Ravens23
Bengals17Ravens23
Touchdown18 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 2
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
