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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Jets 24, Cowboys 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 3:46, 1st and 10, on Ro.Anderson — 17.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:46 · 1st and 10
Ro.Anderson
Jets
(3:46) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-Ro.Anderson for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.6
Cowboys closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 3:46, Jets +17.6% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.LewisCowboysQ3 2:40(2:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Lewis at DAL 6. 27-J.Lewis to DAL 26 for 20 yards (75-C.Edoga).
11.9pts
J.WittenJetsQ4 0:43TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 82-J.Witten is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
16.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 17 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 9 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Jets at 1 giveaway.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Jets won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at +0.10 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Cowboys172 of 183 plays carry both curves
(3:46) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-Ro.Anderson for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +17.6 for JetsExpected points +7.09 for JetsThe model had Jets 25 points higher than the market did.play 69
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:46NYJ +18% win prob(3:46) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-Ro.Anderson for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:43DAL +16% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 82-J.Witten is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
3rd · 2:40DAL +12% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Lewis at DAL 6. 27-J.Lewis to DAL 26 for 20 yards (75-C.Edoga).
4th · 14:13DAL +10% win prob(14:13) 2-B.Maher 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
2nd · 3:51DAL +10% win prob(3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left end to NYJ 8 for -1 yards (95-Q.Williams; 33-J.Adams).
1st · 4:32NYJ +8% win prob(4:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles up the middle to DAL 4 for 3 yards (96-M.Collins). PENALTY on DAL-96-M.Collins, Horse Collar Tackle, 2 yards, enforced at DAL 4.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
L.Bell's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 3:30 left in the 1st put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:30L.Bell·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd15:00B.Maher·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+33–7
4th3:27S.Ficken·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+316–24
4th0:47D.Prescott·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+622–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryJets
Cowboys6–1Jets
399Total yards386
5.3Yards per play7.6
51%Success rate39%
59%Third-down rate22%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays6
23First downs17
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Cowboys: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.19Jets: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Cowboys: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.32Jets: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Cowboys: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.10Jets: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 76 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Jets’s 51 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Jets 5.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
DAL's pass rate over expected, −13.7 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −4.8 pts in week 3.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 5.
75 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
high through week 6Against their seasonOver Expected
NYJ's pass rate over expected, +11.2 pts, is past their previous high of +1.5 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 57.5% in week 5 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jets20.9%
leaned — got home · +6.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.2 pts, 12.9 points above their season mean of -1.7 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
53 dressed · 8 never used
69Brandon KnightT · Every snap100%82 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%82 snaps
72Travis FrederickC · Every snap100%82 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%82 snaps
75Cameron FlemingT · Every snap100%82 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%82 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Full-time96%79 snaps
10Tavon AustinWR · Full-time93%76 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time91%75 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Full-time88%72 snaps
11Ced WilsonWR · Heavy rotation61%50 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Rotational43%35 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Situational9%7 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Situational7%6 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational6%5 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Situational4%3 snaps
83Ventell BryantWR · Situational2%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Adam RedmondCJoe JacksonDETrysten HillDTCooper RushQBLa'el CollinsTTyron SmithTDevin SmithWRRandall CobbWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass+17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:46) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-Ro.Anderson for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 3:46 · Jets · 1st & 10 at NYJ 8 · gained 92 · +7.09 EP · +17.5% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 92 yards from the NYJ 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
44%
Yards
781
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1667%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3868%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.1833%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Jets 36
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Cowboys 38
Cowboys0Jets6
Cowboys0Jets7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Jets 32
2nd quarter54 plays
Cowboys3Jets7
Field goal1 play
Punt7 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 45
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to the Jets 6
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Cowboys3Jets13
Cowboys3Jets14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 33
Cowboys3Jets20
Cowboys3Jets21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Cowboys 5
Cowboys6Jets21
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Jets 44
3rd quarter34 plays
Cowboys9Jets21
Field goal16 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Jets 4
Intercepted11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Cowboys 11
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Jets 33
4th quarter56 plays
No good4 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 22
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 30 to midfield
Cowboys15Jets21
Cowboys16Jets21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Jets 5
Cowboys16Jets24
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Cowboys 20
Cowboys22Jets24
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Jets 4
The period ended7 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
