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Green Bay Packers 23, Lions 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 13:22, 3rd and 7, on J.Coleman — 25.9 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:22 · 3rd and 7
J.Coleman
Lions
(13:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 10-D.Shepherd INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Coleman at DET 2. 27-J.Coleman to GB 43 for 55 yards (83-M.Valdes-Scantling).
Packers closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 23–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 13:22, Lions +25.9% win probability on one snap.
25.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetLionsQ3 10:11(10:11) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to GB 34, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-D.Shepherd to GB 34 for no gain (30-D.Virgin). FUMBLES (30-D.Virgin), RECOVERED by DET-32-T.Wilson at GB 25. 32-T.Wilson to GB 25 for no gain (32-T.Carson).
21.3pts
M.CrosbyPackersQ4 0:02(:02) 2-M.Crosby 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
24.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Lions at 3 of 13 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Lions167 of 180 plays carry both curves
(13:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 10-D.Shepherd INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Coleman at DET 2. 27-J.Coleman to GB 43 for 55 yards (83-M.Valdes-Scantling).
Swing −25.9 for PackersExpected points −6.78 for PackersThe model had Lions 5 points higher than the market did.play 136
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:22DET +26% win prob(13:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 10-D.Shepherd INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Coleman at DET 2. 27-J.Coleman to GB 43 for 55 yards (83-M.Valdes-Scantling).
4th · 0:02GB +25% win prob(:02) 2-M.Crosby 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
3rd · 10:11GB +21% win prob(10:11) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to GB 34, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-D.Shepherd to GB 34 for no gain (30-D.Virgin). FUMBLES (30-D.Virgin), RECOVERED by DET-32-T.Wilson at GB 25. 32-T.Wilson to GB 25 for no gain (32-T.Carson).
4th · 9:10GB +15% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 13-A.Lazard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:55GB +13% win prob(14:55) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay to GB 11 for 66 yards (23-J.Alexander).
2nd · 1:33GB +13% win prob(1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Williams up the middle to DET 10 for 45 yards (23-D.Slay; 25-W.Harris).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Crosby's 23-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:44M.Prater·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+33–0
4th0:02M.Crosby·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.BradleyLead never changed again+322–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryPackers
Lions1–7Packers
300Total yards449
5.6Yards per play6.7
35%Success rate45%
23%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays8
13First downs17
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Lions: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.02Packers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Lions: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.03Packers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Lions: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.01Packers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 54 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Packers’s 67 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Lions 3, Packers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 6Against their seasonOver Expected
DET's pass rate over expected, +8.3 pts, is past their previous high of +2.9 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
GB's pass rate over expected, −3.5 pts, is past their previous low of +0.1 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 5.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Packers8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.3 pts, 10.7 points above their season mean of -2.4 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation77%57 snaps
80Jimmy GrahamTE · Heavy rotation73%54 snaps
30Jamaal WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Rotational49%36 snaps
81Geronimo AllisonWR · Rotational43%32 snaps
10Darrius ShepherdWR · Rotational39%29 snaps
89Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational39%29 snaps
13Allen LazardWR · Situational23%17 snaps
45Danny VitaleFB · Situational14%10 snaps
88Evan BaylisTE · Situational1%1 snap
70Alex LightT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Tony BrownCBCole MadisonGAdam PankeyGDexter WilliamsRBDarnell SavageSRobert TonyanTEDavante AdamsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tim BoyleQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Crosby+36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 2-M.Crosby 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
Q4 0:02 · Packers · 4th & 4 at DET 5 · gained nothing · +0.05 EP · +36.4% win probability
165 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 79 yards from the GB 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
42%
Yards
746
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.0069%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.1072%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.1062%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1333%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0275%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.5243%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.5950%
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Lions0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Lions3Packers0
Field goal6 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Packers 8
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Packers 23
Lions9Packers0
Lions10Packers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Packers 1
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Lions 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Packers 28
2nd quarter56 plays
Lions13Packers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Packers 2
Lions13Packers6
Lions13Packers7
Touchdown20 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Lions 5
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 47
Lions13Packers10
Field goal16 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Lions 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Lions13Packers13
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Lions 30
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 27
Lions16Packers13
Field goal4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 23
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 16
Lions19Packers13
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Packers 33
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 29
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 32
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Packers 39 to the Lions 12
Lions22Packers13
Field goal4 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Packers 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Lions22Packers19
Lions22Packers20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Lions 35
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Lions22Packers23
Field goal20 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Lions 3
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
