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2019 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

31

Kansas City Chiefs

24

KC -3.5 upsetO 54.5 ✓

Houston Texans 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 0:32, HOU +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KCHOU
Q2 · 0:32HOU KC KC ball · 1st & 10KC 61%

(:32) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 13 for -7 yards (94-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (94-C.Omenihu) [94-C.Omenihu], RECOVERED by HOU-55-B.McKinney at KC 3. 55-B.McKinney to KC 3 for no gain (74-M.Rankin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:32HOU +20% win prob(:32) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 13 for -7 yards (94-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (94-C.Omenihu) [94-C.Omenihu], RECOVERED by HOU-55-B.McKinney at KC 3. 55-B.McKinney to KC 3 for no gain (74-M.Rankin).
  2. Q4 · 7:41KC +17% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells to KC 1 for 18 yards (56-B.Niemann; 21-B.Breeland).
  3. Q1 · 11:53KC +17% win prob(11:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-59-W.Mercilus, Defensive Offside, declined.
  4. Q3 · 0:09HOU +15% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Ward at KC -2. Touchback.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansChiefs
Offensive plays8246
Total yards476 (edge)310
Yards per play5.86.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.23 (edge)0.04
Success rate56% (edge)41%
Dropback rate59%78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.40 (edge)0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.010.04 (edge)
Third downs5/124/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps33 (edge)16
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers32 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1KCKC 981163:18Touchdown
2HOUHOU 252-70:06Fumble
3KCHOU 18451:17Turnover on downs
4HOUHOU 2513494:33Turnover on downs
5KCKC 1011754:18Touchdown
6HOUHOU 2512754:13Touchdown
7KCKC 197343:33Interception
8HOUHOU 2013805:36Touchdown
9KCKC 277361:27Turnover on downs
10HOUHOU 407151:07Interception
11KCKC 201-170:09Fumble
12HOUKC 3230:07Touchdown
13KCKC 24200:16End of half
14HOUHOU 2511474:05Turnover on downs
15KCKC 3611644:25Touchdown
16HOUHOU 2312656:26Interception
17KCKC 20400:15Punt
18HOUHOU 7131058:32Touchdown
19KCKC 255-31:14Punt
20HOUHOU 379445:03End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 116 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -3.5
Closing total
54.5
HOU moneyline
+166
KC moneyline
-186

Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 55 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
56°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
HOU 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Andy Reid