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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 31 at Kansas City Chiefs 24. Final.
Chiefs -3.5 upsetO 54.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 6
Houston Texans 31, Chiefs 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:32, 1st and 10, on P.Mahomes — 20.1 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:32 · 1st and 10
P.Mahomes
Texans
(:32) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 13 for -7 yards (94-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (94-C.Omenihu) [94-C.Omenihu], RECOVERED by HOU-55-B.McKinney at KC 3. 55-B.McKinney to KC 3 for no gain (74-M.Rankin).
Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 0:32, Texans +20.1% win probability on one snap.
20.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.HillChiefsQ1 11:53(11:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-59-W.Mercilus, Defensive Offside, declined.
17.0pts
D.FellsTexansQ4 7:41(7:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells to KC 1 for 18 yards (56-B.Niemann; 21-B.Breeland).
17.1pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 4 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at +0.04 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Chiefs at +0.04 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Texans175 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:32) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 13 for -7 yards (94-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (94-C.Omenihu) [94-C.Omenihu], RECOVERED by HOU-55-B.McKinney at KC 3. 55-B.McKinney to KC 3 for no gain (74-M.Rankin).
Swing −20.1 for ChiefsExpected points −5.88 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:32HOU +20% win prob(:32) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 13 for -7 yards (94-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (94-C.Omenihu) [94-C.Omenihu], RECOVERED by HOU-55-B.McKinney at KC 3. 55-B.McKinney to KC 3 for no gain (74-M.Rankin).
4th · 7:41KC +17% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells to KC 1 for 18 yards (56-B.Niemann; 21-B.Breeland).
1st · 11:53KC +17% win prob(11:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-59-W.Mercilus, Defensive Offside, declined.
3rd · 0:09HOU +15% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Ward at KC -2. Touchback.
3rd · 11:00HOU +12% win prob(11:00) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
3rd · 6:36KC +12% win prob(6:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Watson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:24 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th6:24D.Watson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+831–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryChiefs
Texans6–3Chiefs
476Total yards310
5.8Yards per play6.7
56%Success rate41%
42%Third-down rate50%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays4
33First downs16
0Sacks taken1
3Turnovers2
The read
Texans ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Texans: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.04Chiefs: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.40Texans: +0.40 expected points added per play
+0.04Chiefs: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Texans: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.04Chiefs: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 82 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 46 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Texans 6, Chiefs 4.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +17.7 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 6.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +12.7 pts in week 2.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
46 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.7 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Chiefs4.2%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.2 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 17.7 pts, 9.9 points above their season mean of 7.8 pts and 2.3 times their own 4.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%55 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
75Cameron ErvingG · Every snap100%55 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time96%53 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Full-time87%48 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Heavy rotation60%33 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Heavy rotation51%28 snaps
25LeSean McCoyRB · Rotational49%27 snaps
26Damien WilliamsRB · Rotational38%21 snaps
81Blake BellTE · Rotational35%19 snaps
84De'Anthony ThomasWR · Situational15%8 snaps
31Darrel WilliamsRB · Situational13%7 snaps
42Anthony ShermanFB · Situational2%1 snap
82Deon YelderTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Chris JonesDTDorian O'DanielLBAnthony HitchensMLBAndrew WylieOTEric FisherTGreg SenatTSammy WatkinsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Matt MooreQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes sacked−24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:32) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 13 for -7 yards (94-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (94-C.Omenihu) [94-C.Omenihu], RECOVERED by HOU-55-B.McKinney at KC 3. 55-B.McKinney to KC 3 for no gain (74-M.Rankin).
Q2 0:32 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at KC 20 · lost 17 · -5.88 EP · −24.4% win probability
173 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 93 yards from the HOU 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
46%
Yards
783
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR48+0.3452%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0655%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0073%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1288%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Texans0Chiefs6
Texans0Chiefs7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Texans 35
Fumble lost2 plays
Texans0Chiefs10
Field goal5 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 13
Texans3Chiefs10
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chiefs 26
Texans3Chiefs16
Texans3Chiefs17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Texans 14
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 39
2nd quarter55 plays
Texans9Chiefs17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Chiefs 11
Intercepted10 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Texans 32
Texans15Chiefs17
Texans16Chiefs17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Chiefs 2
No good8 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Texans 32
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Chiefs 40
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost1 play
Texans22Chiefs17
Texans23Chiefs17
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
No good11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chiefs 28
Texans23Chiefs23
Texans23Chiefs24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Texans 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Chiefs 7
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 25
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.9 seconds
Texans29Chiefs24
Texans31Chiefs24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Texans 7 to the Chiefs 1
Punt5 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Chiefs 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -3.5
Closing total
54.5
Texans moneyline
+166
Chiefs moneyline
-186
Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 54.5; the game landed 55 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Texans 7 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Andy Reid
1st · 11:42HOU +11% win prob(11:42) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde up the middle to HOU 24 for -1 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark), RECOVERED by KC-55-F.Clark at HOU 18. 55-F.Clark to HOU 18 for no gain (23-C.Hyde).
2nd · 0:23KC +11% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Holding, declined.
Texanscategory by categoryChiefs
Texans0
Chiefs6
