2019 Week 6 · Thu, Oct 10, 2019 · Gillette Stadium

New York Giants

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -16.5 ✓O 43 ✓Patriots closed -16.5 and covered, winning by 21.

New England Patriots 35–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:54, NYG +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:54NYG — NE NE ball · 2nd & 12NE 93%

(4:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 43 for -9 yards (59-L.Carter). FUMBLES (59-L.Carter) [59-L.Carter], RECOVERED by NYG-44-M.Golden at NE 42. 44-M.Golden for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-10-J.Gordon was injured during t

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:54NYG +13% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 43 for -9 yards (59-L.Carter). FUMBLES (59-L.Carter) [59-L.Carter], RECOVERED by NYG-44-M.Golden at NE 42. 44-M.Golden for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-10-J.Gordon was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q1 · 11:27NYG +12% win prob(11:27) 26-S.Michel right end to NYG 19 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson; 55-D.Mayo). measurement
Q1 · 5:29NE +7% win prob(5:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to NE 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
Q1 · 7:07NYG +6% win prob(7:07) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 20-Ja.Jenkins at NYG 3. 20-Ja.Jenkins ran ob at NE 35 for 62 yards (26-S.Michel). PENALTY on NYG-44-M.Golden, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 35.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Patriots
Offensive plays	47	76
Total yards	214	427 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.55	-0.07 (edge)
Success rate	32%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.70	-0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	-0.10 (edge)
Third downs	2/10	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	4	2 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.55.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 28	8	53	3:45	Turnover on downs
2	NYG	NYG 18	4	9	1:31	Punt
3	NE	NE 20	4	6	1:50	Punt
4	NYG	NYG 30	2	3	0:47	Interception
5	NE	NYG 43	1	0	0:20	Interception
6	NYG	50	4	5	1:24	Punt
7	NE	NE 12	7	24	1:52	Punt
8	NYG	NYG 18	4	1	1:50	Defensive touchdown
9	NYG	NYG 25	8	27	2:43	Punt
10	NE	NE 15	8	28	3:12	Punt
11	NYG	NYG 25	3	10	1:20	Interception
12	NE	NYG 20	6	25	2:15	Touchdown
13	NYG	NYG 25	5	75	1:06	Touchdown
14	NE	NE 25	4	17	1:27	Defensive touchdown
15	NE	NE 25	13	75	4:02	Touchdown
16	NYG	NYG 21	2	0	0:36	End of half
17	NYG	NYG 22	7	48	2:48	Interception
18	NE	NE 18	16	60	9:25	Turnover on downs
19	NYG	NYG 30	7	28	2:47	Punt
20	NE	NE 20	9	48	5:32	Turnover on downs
21	NYG	NYG 32	3	-7	0:55	Defensive touchdown
22	NYG	NYG 25	5	8	1:35	Punt
23	NE	NE 37	8	63	3:09	Touchdown
24	NYG	NYG 25	7	7	1:02	Turnover on downs
25	NE	NYG 37	4	28	2:47	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 75 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -16.5
Closing total: 43
NYG moneyline: +756
NE moneyline: -1071

Patriots closed -16.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 43; the game landed 49 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: NYG 4 days · NE 4 days
Coaches: Pat Shurmur vs Bill Belichick