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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Pittsburgh Steelers 24 at Los Angeles Chargers 17. Final.
Chargers -6 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 6
Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Chargers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:01, 2nd and 10 — 18.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:01 · 2nd and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Steelers
(11:01) (Pass formation) 17-P.Rivers FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 13, RECOVERED by PIT-55-D.Bush at LAC 9. 55-D.Bush for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 42.5 ✓
Chargers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 24–17. Biggest swing: Q1 11:01, Steelers +18.1% win probability on one snap.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.GordonSteelersQ1 13:45(13:45) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 45 for -1 yards (48-B.Dupree).
7.0pts
D.BushSteelersQ1 8:59(8:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Bush (94-T.Alualu) at LAC 46. 55-D.Bush to LAC 40 for 6 yards (13-K.Allen).
12.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — -0.16 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.81 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Steelers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Chargers at 7 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Steelers150 of 156 plays carry both curves
(11:01) (Pass formation) 17-P.Rivers FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 13, RECOVERED by PIT-55-D.Bush at LAC 9. 55-D.Bush for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.1 for ChargersExpected points −7.37 for ChargersThe model had Steelers 13 points higher than the market did.play 14
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:01PIT +18% win prob(11:01) (Pass formation) 17-P.Rivers FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 13, RECOVERED by PIT-55-D.Bush at LAC 9. 55-D.Bush for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:59PIT +12% win prob(8:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Bush (94-T.Alualu) at LAC 46. 55-D.Bush to LAC 40 for 6 yards (13-K.Allen).
1st · 13:45PIT +7% win prob(13:45) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 45 for -1 yards (48-B.Dupree).
2nd · 0:37PIT +7% win prob(:37) 3-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
1st · 11:12LAC +6% win prob(11:12) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to LAC 21, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 20-D.King.
2nd · 2:00PIT +5% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LAC-17-P.Rivers, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at PIT 26.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Bush's 9-yard touchdown with 11:01 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Chargers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.81 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Steelers: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.09Chargers: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Steelers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.13Chargers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Steelers: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.81Chargers: −0.81 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 56 snaps at a 38% dropback rate against Chargers’s 59 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Chargers 3.
NoteChargers outgained Steelers 348-256 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 28.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 52.6% in week 3.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 5.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points.
PIT's sack or hit rate, 11.1%, is past their previous low of 13.2% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.1 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chargers0.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.2 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 24.8 points below their season mean of 53.3% and 1.7 times their own 14.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%59 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%59 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%59 snaps
6Devlin HodgesQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%59 snaps
73Ramon FosterG · Full-time98%58 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time85%50 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation69%41 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Heavy rotation66%39 snaps
88Nick VannettTE · Heavy rotation61%36 snaps
80Johnny HoltonWR · Heavy rotation54%32 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Rotational49%29 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Rotational49%29 snaps
72Zach BannerT · Rotational31%18 snaps
11Donte MoncriefWR · Situational24%14 snaps
10Ryan SwitzerWR · Situational10%6 snaps
67B.J. FinneyC · Situational2%1 snap
81Zach GentryTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Steven NelsonCBIsaiah BuggsDERoosevelt NixFBMark BarronILBMason RudolphQBJaylen SamuelsRBJames WashingtonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers FUMBLES−20% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:01) (Pass formation) 17-P.Rivers FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 13, RECOVERED by PIT-55-D.Bush at LAC 9. 55-D.Bush for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:01 · Chargers · 2nd & 10 at LAC 21 · gained nothing · -7.37 EP · −20.2% win probability
148 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 86 yards from the PIT 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
42%
Yards
604
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.0681%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1250%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.580%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.3913%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.3538%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2040%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 46
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Steelers 25
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Steelers6Chargers0
Touchdown2 plays
Steelers7Chargers0
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 44
Steelers13Chargers0
Steelers14Chargers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chargers 12
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chargers 48
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter29 plays
Steelers20Chargers0
Steelers21Chargers0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Chargers 26
No good13 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Steelers 25
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Steelers24Chargers0
Field goal17 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Chargers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 38
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 46
The period ended9 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Steelers 30
4th quarter51 plays
Steelers24Chargers3
Field goal4 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to midfield
Steelers24Chargers9
Steelers24Chargers10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Steelers 5
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 42
Steelers24Chargers16
Steelers24Chargers17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Steelers 11
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Chargers 36
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
