For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Seattle Seahawks 32 at Cleveland Browns 28. Final.
Browns -1 upsetO 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 6
Seattle Seahawks 32, Browns 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 10:43, 4th and 1, on N.Chubb — 21.8 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:43 · 4th and 1
N.Chubb
Seahawks
(10:43) 24-N.Chubb right guard to SEA 2 for -1 yards (97-P.Ford; 99-Q.Jefferson).
21.8
16.5 mph wind
Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 32–28. Biggest swing: Q4 10:43, Seahawks +21.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
N.ChubbSeahawksQ3 9:06(9:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb to SEA 39 for no gain (94-E.Ansah). FUMBLES (94-E.Ansah), RECOVERED by SEA-94-E.Ansah at SEA 39. 94-E.Ansah to SEA 42 for 3 yards (74-C.Hubbard).
15.9pts
C.ProsiseBrownsQ3 1:07(1:07) 22-C.Prosise up the middle to SEA 48 for -1 yards (54-O.Vernon). FUMBLES (54-O.Vernon), touched at SEA 48, RECOVERED by CLE-99-D.Lawrence at SEA 45. 99-D.Lawrence to SEA 45 for no gain (74-G.Fant).
18.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 4 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.51 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Browns at 7 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.05 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Seahawks180 of 189 plays carry both curves
(10:43) 24-N.Chubb right guard to SEA 2 for -1 yards (97-P.Ford; 99-Q.Jefferson).
Swing −21.8 for BrownsExpected points −4.00 for BrownsThe model had Seahawks 3 points higher than the market did.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 10:43SEA +22% win prob(10:43) 24-N.Chubb right guard to SEA 2 for -1 yards (97-P.Ford; 99-Q.Jefferson).
3rd · 1:07SEA +18% win prob(1:07) 22-C.Prosise up the middle to SEA 48 for -1 yards (54-O.Vernon). FUMBLES (54-O.Vernon), touched at SEA 48, RECOVERED by CLE-99-D.Lawrence at SEA 45. 99-D.Lawrence to SEA 45 for no gain (74-G.Fant).
3rd · 9:06SEA +16% win prob(9:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb to SEA 39 for no gain (94-E.Ansah). FUMBLES (94-E.Ansah), RECOVERED by SEA-94-E.Ansah at SEA 39. 94-E.Ansah to SEA 42 for 3 yards (74-C.Hubbard).
4th · 3:57CLE +15% win prob(3:57) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to CLE 1 for 15 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
2nd · 0:03SEA +12% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right (26-Sq.Griffin).
1st · 6:04CLE +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Carson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:33 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th3:33C.Carson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+732–28
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryBrowns
Seahawks7–2Browns
456Total yards406
6.2Yards per play6.7
49%Success rate46%
46%Third-down rate38%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
11Explosive plays7
26First downs19
3Sacks taken0
1Turnovers4
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Seahawks: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.05Browns: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.51Seahawks: +0.51 expected points added per play
−0.04Browns: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Seahawks: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.07Browns: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 73 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Browns’s 61 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 7, Browns 6.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.2 pts in week 5 against +6.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.6 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Browns17.1%
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.5%, 7.6 points below their season mean of 10.1% and 1.5 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Chubb right−20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:43) 24-N.Chubb right guard to SEA 2 for -1 yards (97-P.Ford; 99-Q.Jefferson).
Q4 10:43 · Browns · 4th & goal at SEA 1 · lost 1 · -4.00 EP · −20.0% win probability
178 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 92 yards from the CLE 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
862
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.0954%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.0474%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.5936%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3325%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.4833%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Seahawks0Browns6
Seahawks0Browns7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 7
Seahawks6Browns7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Browns 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Seahawks6Browns13
Seahawks6Browns14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Seahawks 10
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Browns 35
The period ended3 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Browns 17
2nd quarter60 plays
Seahawks6Browns20
Touchdown2 plays
Seahawks9Browns20
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Browns 18
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 26
Seahawks12Browns20
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 2
Intercepted5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Seahawks 46
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Seahawks 46
Intercepted9 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Seahawks 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Seahawks18Browns20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Browns 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.4 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 48
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Seahawks 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.1 seconds
Seahawks24Browns20
Seahawks25Browns20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Browns 3
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 28
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Seahawks 49
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Seahawks 22
4th quarter48 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 1
Punt4 plays
Seahawks25Browns26
Seahawks25Browns28
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Seahawks 3
Seahawks31Browns28
Seahawks32Browns28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Browns 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 3
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -1
Closing total
45.5
Seahawks moneyline
+102
Browns moneyline
-113
Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 60 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 61°F at kickoff; windy at 17 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Seahawks 10 days · Browns 6 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Freddie Kitchens
NoteWind at 16.5 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
(6:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry to SEA 11 for 27 yards (33-T.Thompson).
2nd · 1:36SEA +11% win prob(1:36) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 33-T.Thompson (26-Sq.Griffin) at SEA -6. 33-T.Thompson pushed ob at SEA 12 for 18 yards (13-O.Beckham).
1st · 15:00CLE +11% win prob5-J.Myers kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to CLE 3. 25-D.Hilliard to SEA 23 for 74 yards (28-U.Amadi).
