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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
49ersSan Francisco20
BY 13final margin
RamsLos Angeles7
San Francisco 49ers 20 at Los Angeles Rams 7. Final.
Rams -3 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 6
San Francisco 49ers 20, Rams 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 12:42, 3rd and 1, on M.Peters — 15.3 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:42 · 3rd and 1
M.Peters
Rams
(12:42) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at LA -3. Touchback (19-D.Samuel). PENALTY on SF-19-D.Samuel, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LA 20.
U 49.5 ✓
Rams closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
San Francisco 49ers 20–7. Biggest swing: Q2 12:42, Rams +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
G.Kittle49ersQ2 14:52(14:52) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to LA 6 for 45 yards (20-T.Hill, 50-S.Ebukam) [69-S.Joseph].
11.2pts
Unnamed on the sheet49ersQ3 14:54(14:54) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at LA 17, RECOVERED by SF-91-A.Armstead at LA 17. 91-A.Armstead to LA 17 for no gain (27-D.Henderson).
14.0pts
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Rams at 0 of 10 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.59 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — -0.00 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.65 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.50 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on 49ers159 of 174 plays carry both curves
Q2 · 12:4249ers 7 — Rams 7SF ball · 3rd & 1SF 54%
49ers 54%Rams 46%
(12:42) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at LA -3. Touchback (19-D.Samuel). PENALTY on SF-19-D.Samuel, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LA 20.
Swing +15.3 for RamsExpected points +7.38 for RamsThe model had 49ers 5 points higher than the market did.play 45
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:42SF +15% win prob(12:42) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at LA -3. Touchback (19-D.Samuel). PENALTY on SF-19-D.Samuel, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LA 20.
3rd · 14:54SF +14% win prob(14:54) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at LA 17, RECOVERED by SF-91-A.Armstead at LA 17. 91-A.Armstead to LA 17 for no gain (27-D.Henderson).
2nd · 14:52LA +11% win prob(14:52) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to LA 6 for 45 yards (20-T.Hill, 50-S.Ebukam) [69-S.Joseph].
1st · 13:42SF +9% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 13 for -9 yards (99-A.Donald).
2nd · 0:03SF +8% win prob(:03) 9-R.Gould 55 yard field goal is No Good, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. 19-J.Natson at LA -8 pushed ob at LA 33 for 41 yards (6-M.Wishnowsky).
2nd · 2:23LA +7% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to SF 16 for 11 yards (58-C.Littleton, 43-J.Johnson). Penalty on LA-56-D.Fowler, Defensive Offside, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Garoppolo's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 12:58 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
3rd12:58J.Garoppolo·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+714–7
3rd5:02R.Gould·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap G.Sanborn+317–7
4th12:08R.Gould·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap G.Sanborn+320–7
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryRams
49ers7–2Rams
333Total yards157
4.5Yards per play3.1
43%Success rate38%
47%Third-down rate0%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays3
22First downs10
2Sacks taken4
2Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.0849ers: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.59Rams: −0.59 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.0049ers: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.65Rams: −0.65 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.1549ers: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.50Rams: −0.50 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 74 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Rams’s 50 at 56%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Rams 2.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.59.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 77.4 points above their season number of 22.6% — they went for it by 2.1 times their own 36.9-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 36.9 points.
LA's pass rate over expected, −8.4 pts, is past their previous low of −0.7 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Rams14.3%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 77.4 points above their season mean of 22.6% and 2.1 times their own 36.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass−21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:42) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at LA -3. Touchback (19-D.Samuel). PENALTY on SF-19-D.Samuel, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LA 20.
Q2 12:42 · 49ers · 3rd & goal at LA 1 · gained nothing · -7.38 EP · −21.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 24 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.24
Success rate
37%
Yards
488
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR44-0.2034%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.5163%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.2373%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.8225%
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the 49ers 22
49ers0Rams6
49ers0Rams7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 44 to the 49ers 8
49ers6Rams7
49ers7Rams7
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 2
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 30
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 44
2nd quarter43 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the Rams 1
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 35 to the 49ers 41
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the 49ers 1
No good17 plays, from the 49ers 1 to the Rams 37
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
49ers13Rams7
49ers14Rams7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Rams 1
Punt8 plays
49ers17Rams7
Field goal14 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the Rams 2
Punt5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the Rams 35
4th quarter51 plays
49ers20Rams7
Field goal5 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 15
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 44
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Rams 45 to the Rams 39
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the 49ers 27
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 30
Punt4 plays
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the 49ers 46
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Rams 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -3
Closing total
49.5
49ers moneyline
+133
Rams moneyline
-148
Rams closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 27 — under by 22.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 75°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
49ers 6 days · Rams 10 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 2:09SF +6% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 25 for -5 yards (98-R.Blair III). LA-70-J.Noteboom was injured during the play. He is Out. LA #70 J.Noteboom. Knee Injury, he is out.
2nd · 6:37LA +6% win prob(6:37) 27-D.Henderson left end to SF 24 for 22 yards (20-J.Ward).
49erscategory by categoryRams
49ers0
Rams6
