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2019 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
TitansTennessee0
BY 16final margin
BroncosDenver16
Tennessee Titans 0 at Denver Broncos 16. Final.
Broncos -1 ✓U 41 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 6
Denver Broncos 16, Titans 0 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:48, 1st and 10, on C.Harris — 10.5 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:48 · 1st and 10
C.Harris
Broncos
(:48) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 19-T.Sharpe INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at DEN 39. 25-C.Harris to TEN 45 for 16 yards (64-N.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-95-D.Wolfe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.
Broncos closed -1 and covered, winning by 16.
Denver Broncos 16–0. Biggest swing: Q2 0:48, Broncos +10.5% win probability on one snap.
10.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBroncosQ2 0:59(:59) 6-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to TEN 41, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 48 for 7 yards (36-T.Marshall).
7.0pts
K.ByardTitansQ3 12:36(12:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 20. 31-K.Byard to TEN 45 for 25 yards (28-R.Freeman).
7.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — -0.19 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.52 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Titans at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.16 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Titans161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(:48) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 19-T.Sharpe INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at DEN 39. 25-C.Harris to TEN 45 for 16 yards (64-N.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-95-D.Wolfe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 y
Swing +10.5 for BroncosExpected points +2.49 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 3 points higher than the market did.play 80
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:48TEN +11% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 19-T.Sharpe INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at DEN 39. 25-C.Harris to TEN 45 for 16 yards (64-N.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-95-D.Wolfe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.
3rd · 12:36TEN +8% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 20. 31-K.Byard to TEN 45 for 25 yards (28-R.Freeman).
2nd · 0:59DEN +7% win prob(:59) 6-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to TEN 41, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 48 for 7 yards (36-T.Marshall).
2nd · 1:01TEN +7% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco Aborted. 60-C.McGovern FUMBLES at DEN 6, recovered by DEN-5-J.Flacco at DEN 6. 5-J.Flacco to DEN 6 for no gain (58-H.Landry).
1st · 14:10TEN +7% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 28 for 0 yards (45-A.Johnson).
2nd · 9:46DEN +6% win prob(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 10-A.Humphries to TEN 39 for 9 yards (34-W.Parks).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
B.McManus's 31-yard field goal with 10:19 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:19B.McManus·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+30–3
2nd4:42B.McManus·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+30–6
4th4:57B.McManus·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+30–16
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryBroncos
Titans0–8Broncos
205Total yards272
3.4Yards per play4.8
34%Success rate35%
14%Third-down rate14%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
1Explosive plays2
9First downs11
7Sacks taken1
3Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.40Titans: −0.40 expected points added per play
−0.16Broncos: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.36Titans: −0.36 expected points added per play
−0.12Broncos: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.52Titans: −0.52 expected points added per play
−0.19Broncos: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 61 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Broncos’s 57 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Titans 2, Broncos 3.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.6 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos20.9%
inside their normal wobble · +8.0 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 62.2%, 12.9 points above their season mean of 49.4% and 1.3 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
77Taylor LewanT · Every snap100%66 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%66 snaps
76Rodger SaffoldG · Every snap100%66 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%66 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%66 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Full-time86%57 snaps
10Adam HumphriesWR · Heavy rotation61%40 snaps
82Delanie WalkerTE · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
8Marcus MariotaQB · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational42%28 snaps
19Tajae SharpeWR · Rotational42%28 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Rotational42%28 snaps
33Dion LewisRB · Rotational41%27 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational32%21 snaps
15Darius JenningsWR · Situational12%8 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Situational8%5 snaps
28Dalyn DawkinsRB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Chris MiltonCBMatt DickersonDEAaron StinnieGKevin PamphileGCameron WakeOLBSharif FinchOLBRod SmithRB
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota pass−11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:48) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 19-T.Sharpe INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at DEN 39. 25-C.Harris to TEN 45 for 16 yards (64-N.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-95-D.Wolfe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.
Q2 0:48 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 48 · gained nothing · -2.49 EP · −11.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 63 yards from the TEN 25 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.21
Success rate
34%
Yards
474
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.4978%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.2952%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.6264%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.2345%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2757%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.520%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
Titans0Broncos3
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Titans 13
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 32
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Broncos 33
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Broncos 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Broncos 24
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 47
Punt3 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Broncos 21
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 39
Titans0Broncos6
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Titans 35
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 45
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Broncos 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Broncos 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 45
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 45 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Broncos 31
Intercepted3 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Titans 15
Titans0Broncos12
Titans0Broncos13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Titans 2
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 34
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Broncos 18
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Broncos 38
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Broncos 11
Titans0Broncos16
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Titans 20
Intercepted16 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Broncos 5
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Titanscategory by categoryBroncos
Titans0
Broncos3
