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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
CommandersWashington17
BY 1final margin
DolphinsMiami16
Washington Commanders 17 at Miami Dolphins 16. Final.
Commanders -6 no coverU 42 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 6
Washington Commanders 17, Dolphins 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:10, 2nd and 10, on D.Parker — 26.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:10 · 2nd and 10
D.Parker
Dolphins
(:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 11-D.Parker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-67-D.Kilgore was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Commanders closed -6, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Washington Commanders 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:10, Dolphins +26.9% win probability on one snap.
26.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.McLaurinCommandersQ2 11:42(11:42) 8-C.Keenum pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.8pts
K.DrakeCommandersQ4 0:06(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass to 32-K.Drake is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
26.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.03 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.32 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.06 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Commanders167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 11-D.Parker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-67-D.Kilgore was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Swing +26.9 for DolphinsExpected points +4.01 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 6 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:10MIA +27% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 11-D.Parker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-67-D.Kilgore was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
4th · 0:06WAS +26% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass to 32-K.Drake is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
2nd · 11:42MIA +9% win prob(11:42) 8-C.Keenum pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:40MIA +7% win prob(2:40) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 27-K.Ballage. 27-K.Ballage right end pushed ob at WAS 39 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves).
2nd · 12:54MIA +7% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 26-A.Peterson right end pushed ob at MIA 28 for 25 yards (20-R.Jones).
3rd · 9:48MIA +7% win prob(9:48) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.McLaurin's 25-yard touchdown catch with 11:42 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd11:42T.McLaurin·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom C.Keenumfrom C.KeenumLead never changed again+77–0
2nd1:13J.Sanders·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap T.Pepper+37–3
Commanders ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Commanders: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.19Dolphins: −0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Commanders: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.32Dolphins: −0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Commanders: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.13Dolphins: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 57 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 69 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Dolphins 2.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's early-down pass rate, 32.6%, is past their previous low of 59.5% in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 5.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Dolphins11.5%
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 32.6%, 20.4 points below their season mean of 53.0% and 1.6 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Johnson BademosiCBXavien HowardCBChandler CoxFBKeaton SutherlandGChris ReedGMyles GaskinRBJakeem GrantWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Sam EguavoenLBAndrew DonnalT
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Fitzpatrick pass+26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 11-D.Parker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-67-D.Kilgore was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q4 0:10 · Dolphins · 2nd & 10 at WAS 11 · gained 11 · +4.01 EP · +25.8% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 93 yards from the WAS 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
35%
Yards
582
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.1977%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1766%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.4019%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.3750%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.18100%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.0920%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to the Dolphins 35
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 26
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 31
Punt12 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Commanders 34
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Commanders6Dolphins0
Commanders7Dolphins0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 12 to the Dolphins 25
Intercepted11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Commanders 36
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Commanders 38
Commanders7Dolphins3
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Commanders 21
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 39
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
Commanders13Dolphins3
Commanders14Dolphins3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Dolphins 33
Intercepted5 plays
Commanders17Dolphins3
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 34 to the Dolphins 1
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 20
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Dolphins 38
4th quarter57 plays
No good1 play
Commanders17Dolphins9
Commanders17Dolphins10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Commanders 1
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Commanders 27
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Commanders 48
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 12 to the Commanders 19
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Commanders 40
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 1 to the Commanders 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Commanders17Dolphins16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Commanders 11
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Commanders -6
Closing total
42
Commanders moneyline
-240
Dolphins moneyline
+210
Commanders closed -6, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 33 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 82°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the east; 0.04 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Dolphins 14 days
Coaches
Bill Callahan vs Brian Flores
4th · 5:28
WAS +7% win prob
(5:28) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick Aborted. 67-D.Kilgore FUMBLES at WAS 44, recovered by MIA-32-K.Drake at WAS 48. 32-K.Drake to WAS 48 for no gain (51-S.Hamilton).
4th · 6:28WAS +6% win prob(6:28) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to MIA 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at WAS 41 for 21 yards (5-T.Way).
