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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:10 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 27 at New York Giants 21. Final.
Giants -3.5 upsetU 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 7
Arizona Cardinals 27, Giants 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 7:33, 2nd and 8, on D.Jones — 19.5 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:33 · 2nd and 8
D.Jones
Cardinals
(7:33) 8-D.Jones sacked at ARI 49 for -12 yards (55-Cha.Jones). FUMBLES (55-Cha.Jones) [55-Cha.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-55-Cha.Jones at ARI 49. 55-Cha.Jones to ARI 49 for no gain (8-D.Jones).
Giants closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 27–21. Biggest swing: Q3 7:33, Cardinals +19.5% win probability on one snap.
19.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.HicksCardinalsQ1 5:49(5:49) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hicks at NYG 46. 58-J.Hicks to NYG 32 for 14 yards (70-K.Zeitler).
11.7pts
G.TateGiantsQ3 3:34(3:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 15-G.Tate to ARI 24 for 15 yards (58-J.Hicks).
11.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.21 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Giants at 4 of 12 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Cardinals167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(7:33) 8-D.Jones sacked at ARI 49 for -12 yards (55-Cha.Jones). FUMBLES (55-Cha.Jones) [55-Cha.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-55-Cha.Jones at ARI 49. 55-Cha.Jones to ARI 49 for no gain (8-D.Jones).
Swing −19.5 for GiantsExpected points −5.67 for GiantsThe model had Cardinals 2 points higher than the market did.play 112
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 7:33ARI +20% win prob(7:33) 8-D.Jones sacked at ARI 49 for -12 yards (55-Cha.Jones). FUMBLES (55-Cha.Jones) [55-Cha.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-55-Cha.Jones at ARI 49. 55-Cha.Jones to ARI 49 for no gain (8-D.Jones).
1st · 5:49ARI +12% win prob(5:49) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hicks at NYG 46. 58-J.Hicks to NYG 32 for 14 yards (70-K.Zeitler).
3rd · 3:34NYG +11% win prob(3:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 15-G.Tate to ARI 24 for 15 yards (58-J.Hicks).
2nd · 2:09NYG +10% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 15-G.Tate to ARI 37 for 14 yards (58-J.Hicks; 35-D.Thompson).
1st · 8:21NYG +9% win prob(8:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:57NYG +9% win prob(:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to ARI 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-48-J.Tauaefa.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Edmonds's 20-yard rushing touchdown with 8:21 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:21C.Edmonds·20-yd TD run20-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
4th2:13Z.Gonzalez·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+327–21
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryGiants
Cardinals6–3Giants
252Total yards263
4.3Yards per play4.0
36%Success rate40%
47%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays6
16First downs19
2Sacks taken8
0Turnovers3
The read
Cardinals ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Cardinals: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.19Giants: −0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Cardinals: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.22Giants: −0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Cardinals: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.12Giants: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 58 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Giants’s 65 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 5, Giants 3.
NoteGiants outgained Cardinals 263-252 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's early-down pass rate, 35.7%, is past their previous low of 41.1% in week 5 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
off script — got home · +14.0 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+2.11× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Giants7.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.7%, 14.0 points above their season mean of 13.7% and 2.1 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones sacked−20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:33) 8-D.Jones sacked at ARI 49 for -12 yards (55-Cha.Jones). FUMBLES (55-Cha.Jones) [55-Cha.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-55-Cha.Jones at ARI 49. 55-Cha.Jones to ARI 49 for no gain (8-D.Jones).
Q3 7:33 · Giants · 2nd & 8 at ARI 37 · lost 12 · -5.67 EP · −20.4% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 82 yards from the NYG 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
36%
Yards
508
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.2374%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1632%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR17+0.3859%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0662%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.4630%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1120%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Cardinals6Giants0
Cardinals7Giants0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Giants 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 43
Cardinals13Giants0
Cardinals14Giants0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Giants 20
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Giants 41
The period ended9 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Giants 30
2nd quarter52 plays
Cardinals17Giants0
Field goal4 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Giants 29
Cardinals17Giants6
Cardinals17Giants7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Cardinals 28
Cardinals17Giants13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 19
Cardinals17Giants14
Punt14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Giants 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Punt18 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Cardinals 31
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 32
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Cardinals 40
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Cardinals 37
Cardinals23Giants14
Cardinals24Giants14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to the Giants 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
No good14 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Cardinals 19
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays
Cardinals24Giants20
Cardinals24Giants21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Cardinals 7
Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 38
Cardinals27Giants21
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 16
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Giants 23
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Giants -3.5
Closing total
49.5
Cardinals moneyline
+168
Giants moneyline
-188
Giants closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 48 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 58°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the south-east; 0.30 in of precipitation; dense drizzle.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · Giants 10 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Pat Shurmur
4th · 2:35
ARI +8% win prob
(2:35) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 23 for -10 yards (21-P.Peterson). FUMBLES (21-P.Peterson) [21-P.Peterson], RECOVERED by ARI-43-H.Reddick at NYG 20. 43-H.Reddick to NYG 17 for 3 yards (76-N.Solder). ARI-43-H.Reddick was injured during the play. Officially, a sack for 13 yards.
2nd · 10:46ARI +8% win prob(10:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 4 for -15 yards (72-O.Pierre).
Cardinalscategory by categoryGiants
Cardinals6
Giants0
