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2019 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2019 · CenturyLink Field
Final
RavensBaltimore30
BY 14final margin
SeahawksSeattle16
Baltimore Ravens 30 at Seattle Seahawks 16. Final.
Seahawks -3 upsetU 49 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 7
Baltimore Ravens 30, Seahawks 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 5:12, 3rd and 6, on M.Peters — 31.9 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:12 · 3rd and 6
M.Peters
Ravens
(5:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 18-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 33. 24-M.Peters for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seahawks closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Baltimore Ravens 30–16. Biggest swing: Q2 5:12, Ravens +31.9% win probability on one snap.
31.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.LockettSeahawksQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to BAL 34 for 33 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
13.6pts
L.JacksonRavensQ3 1:24(1:24) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.5pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 17 on third down, against Ravens at 5 of 12 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Ravens162 of 172 plays carry both curves
(5:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 18-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 33. 24-M.Peters for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −31.9 for SeahawksExpected points −9.62 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 2 points higher than the market did.play 67
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:12BAL +32% win prob(5:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 18-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 33. 24-M.Peters for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:24SEA +15% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00SEA +14% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to BAL 34 for 33 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
3rd · 6:51BAL +13% win prob(6:51) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
1st · 2:21SEA +11% win prob(2:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-DK.Metcalf pushed ob at BAL 29 for 37 yards (34-A.Averett). Penalty on BAL-34-A.Averett, Illegal Contact, declined.
2nd · 14:52SEA +10% win prob(14:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-P.McPhee]. Penalty on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
L.Jackson's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 1:24 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:22J.Tucker·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+33–0
4th1:53J.Myers·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+330–16
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categorySeahawks
Ravens3–4Seahawks
343Total yards347
6.5Yards per play5.1
38%Success rate44%
42%Third-down rate59%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays6
14First downs18
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Ravens: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.21Seahawks: −0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.36Ravens: +0.36 expected points added per play
−0.29Seahawks: −0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Ravens: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.07Seahawks: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 53 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 68 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Seahawks 4.
NoteSeahawks outgained Ravens 347-343 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Seahawks3.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.2 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.8%, 6.2 points below their season mean of 10.1% and 1.3 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%58 snaps
68Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%58 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%58 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%58 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
73Marshal YandaG · Every snap100%58 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Heavy rotation67%39 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Heavy rotation64%37 snaps
10Chris MooreWR · Heavy rotation57%33 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation57%33 snaps
80Miles BoykinWR · Heavy rotation53%31 snaps
21Mark IngramRB · Heavy rotation52%30 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Rotational45%26 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational36%21 snaps
11Seth RobertsWR · Rotational33%19 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational26%15 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Situational7%4 snaps
74James HurstG · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Maurice CanadyCBJimmy SmithCBDaylon MackDTBen PowersGPatrick OnwuasorILBTrace McSorleyQBMarquise BrownWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 18-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 33. 24-M.Peters for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:12 · Seahawks · 3rd & 6 at BAL 34 · gained nothing · -9.62 EP · −28.8% win probability
160 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 91 yards from the BAL 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
39%
Yards
687
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1674%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.0626%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0169%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0963%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.2629%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.8160%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.4920%
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Ravens3Seahawks0
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Seahawks 6
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 34
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Ravens 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Ravens 15
2nd quarter53 plays
Ravens3Seahawks6
Ravens3Seahawks7
Touchdown3 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Ravens6Seahawks7
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Seahawks 10
Ravens6Seahawks10
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Ravens 16
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 30
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Ravens12Seahawks10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Ravens 34
Ravens13Seahawks10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Ravens13Seahawks13
Field goal16 plays, from the Seahawks 8 to the Ravens 13
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 41
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Ravens 22
No good8 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Ravens 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Ravens19Seahawks13
Ravens20Seahawks13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 43 to the Seahawks 8
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 36
4th quarter46 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Seahawks 46
Ravens23Seahawks13
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Seahawks 4
Ravens29Seahawks13
Touchdown2 plays
Ravens30Seahawks13
Ravens30Seahawks16
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Ravens 17
The period ended11 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
