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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:46 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
2019 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
TexansHouston23
BY 7final margin
ColtsIndianapolis30
Houston Texans 23 at Indianapolis Colts 30. Final.
Colts -1.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 7
Indianapolis Colts 30, Texans 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 7:34, 3rd and 14 — 10.0 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Indianapolis Colts 30–23. Biggest swing: Q2 7:34, Texans +10.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:34 · 3rd and 14
Unnamed on the sheet
Texans
(7:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 12, touched at IND 12, RECOVERED by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at IND 6. 59-W.Mercilus to IND 4 for 2 yards (78-R.Kelly).
10.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.FairbairnTexansQ2 9:05(9:05) 7-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
9.6pts
E.EbronColtsQ3 5:15(5:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron to HOU 34 for 33 yards (37-J.Addae, 29-P.Gaines).
8.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.66 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Colts won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Texans at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Texans at +0.08 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Texans172 of 181 plays carry both curves
(7:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 12, touched at IND 12, RECOVERED by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at IND 6. 59-W.Mercilus to IND 4 for 2 yards (78-R.Kelly).
Swing −10.0 for ColtsExpected points −4.90 for ColtsThe model had Colts 6 points higher than the market did.play 56
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:34HOU +10% win prob(7:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 12, touched at IND 12, RECOVERED by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at IND 6. 59-W.Mercilus to IND 4 for 2 yards (78-R.Kelly).
2nd · 9:05IND +10% win prob(9:05) 7-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
3rd · 5:15IND +8% win prob(5:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron to HOU 34 for 33 yards (37-J.Addae, 29-P.Gaines).
1st · 6:43IND +8% win prob(6:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-J.Doyle to HOU 16 for 19 yards (39-T.Gipson).
1st · 5:08IND +8% win prob(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:16IND +7% win prob(9:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-K.Stills pushed ob at IND 4 for 45 yards (34-R.Ya-Sin).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Z.Pascal's 11-yard touchdown catch with 5:08 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:08Z.Pascal·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom J.Brissettfrom J.BrissettLead never changed again+70–7
2nd9:05K.Fairbairn·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+33–7
2nd6:30K.Fairbairn·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+36–7
4th2:44Z.Pascal·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+223–30
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryColts
Texans5–4Colts
391Total yards385
6.4Yards per play5.9
52%Success rate40%
33%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays6
21First downs18
3Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Texans ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Texans: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.08Colts: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Texans: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.46Colts: +0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Texans: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.66Colts: −0.66 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 61 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Colts’s 65 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Texans 5, Colts 5.
NoteTexans outgained Colts 391-385 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +3.1 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Colts15.0%
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.2 pts, 13.6 points above their season mean of -5.4 pts and 1.6 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Brissett FUMBLES−17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 12, touched at IND 12, RECOVERED by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at IND 6. 59-W.Mercilus to IND 4 for 2 yards (78-R.Kelly).
Q2 7:34 · Colts · 3rd & 14 at IND 16 · gained nothing · -4.90 EP · −17.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 94 yards from the IND 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
43%
Yards
774
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.1667%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0259%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2744%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3287%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.3344%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Texans3 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 48
Texans0Colts6
Texans0Colts7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 6 to the Texans 11
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Colts 38
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 31
2nd quarter48 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Colts 36 to the Colts 45
Texans3Colts7
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Colts 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defenders
Fumble lost5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThree
Texans6Colts7
Field goal4 plays
Texans6Colts13
Texans6Colts14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 2
Texans9Colts14
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Texans9Colts20
Texans9Colts21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Texans 4
Texans15Colts21
Texans16Colts21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 4
Texans16Colts27
Texans16Colts28
Touchdown19 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 3
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Texans 48
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Texans 42
Intercepted6 plays, from the Texans 11 to the Colts 41
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Colts 35
Texans22Colts28
Texans23Colts28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Colts 4
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Texans 47
Texans23Colts30
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 4 to the Texans 7
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 21
Intercepted5 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Texans 48
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Texanscategory by categoryColts
Texans0
Colts6
