2019 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Houston Texans

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -1.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Indianapolis Colts 30–23. Biggest swing: Q2 7:34, HOU +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:34HOU — IND IND ball · 3rd & 14IND 63%

(7:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 12, touched at IND 12, RECOVERED by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at IND 6. 59-W.Mercilus to IND 4 for 2 yards (78-R.Kelly).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:34HOU +10% win prob(7:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 12, touched at IND 12, RECOVERED by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at IND 6. 59-W.Mercilus to IND 4 for 2 yards (78-R.Kelly).
Q2 · 9:05IND +10% win prob(9:05) 7-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q3 · 5:15IND +8% win prob(5:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron to HOU 34 for 33 yards (37-J.Addae, 29-P.Gaines).
Q1 · 6:43IND +8% win prob(6:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-J.Doyle to HOU 16 for 19 yards (39-T.Gipson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Colts
Offensive plays	61	65
Total yards	391 (edge)	385
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.02	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	52% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	66%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08	0.46 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.66
Third downs	4/12	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Texans outgained Colts 391–385 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 16	8	37	5:00	Punt
2	IND	IND 6	13	94	4:59	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 34	8	28	3:13	Punt
4	IND	IND 20	8	15	3:44	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	IND 45	7	31	4:05	Turnover on downs
6	IND	IND 20	4	6	1:32	Fumble
7	HOU	IND 4	4	-9	1:02	Turnover on downs
8	IND	IND 25	11	80	4:36	Touchdown
9	HOU	HOU 25	9	67	1:26	Turnover on downs
10	IND	IND 25	2	0	0:23	End of half
11	IND	IND 26	10	74	4:31	Touchdown
12	HOU	HOU 25	7	75	1:46	Touchdown
13	IND	IND 25	14	81	7:29	Touchdown
14	HOU	HOU 26	9	22	3:12	Turnover on downs
15	IND	HOU 48	4	6	0:53	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 11	6	48	2:38	Interception
17	IND	IND 34	4	1	0:50	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 21	7	79	2:03	Touchdown
19	IND	IND 26	6	27	2:29	Punt
20	HOU	HOU 4	4	-4	1:28	Turnover on downs
21	IND	IND 20	5	1	1:00	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 36	4	17	1:15	Interception
23	IND	IND 32	1	0	0:26	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 94 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -1.5
Closing total: 46.5
HOU moneyline: +109
IND moneyline: -120

Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 53 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: HOU 7 days · IND 14 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.