2019 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 17, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Denver Broncos

KC -3 ✓U 49.5 ✓Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.

Kansas City Chiefs 30–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:17, KC +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:17KC — DEN DEN ball · 2nd & 9KC 81%

(7:17) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 17 for -9 yards (53-A.Hitchens). FUMBLES (53-A.Hitchens) [53-A.Hitchens], RECOVERED by KC-59-R.Ragland at DEN 5. 59-R.Ragland for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:17KC +11% win prob(7:17) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 17 for -9 yards (53-A.Hitchens). FUMBLES (53-A.Hitchens) [53-A.Hitchens], RECOVERED by KC-59-R.Ragland at DEN 5. 59-R.Ragland for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:19DEN +8% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 29 for 13 yards (31-J.Simmons).
Q1 · 13:40DEN +7% win prob(13:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 33 for 5 yards (55-F.Clark). PENALTY on KC-55-F.Clark, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DEN 33.
Q1 · 9:52DEN +7% win prob(9:52) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to KC 1 for 9 yards (53-A.Hitchens; 20-M.Claiborne).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Broncos
Offensive plays	57	65
Total yards	272 (edge)	205
Yards per play	4.8 (edge)	3.2
Expected points added / play	-0.01 (edge)	-0.40
Success rate	39% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	54%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.55
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	1/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	12	13 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	9
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.40.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	12	55	5:54	Touchdown
2	KC	KC 25	10	75	4:56	Touchdown
3	DEN	DEN 25	5	-6	1:39	Punt
4	KC	DEN 21	4	6	1:31	Turnover on downs
5	DEN	DEN 25	6	8	1:06	Turnover on downs
6	KC	DEN 38	13	37	6:53	Turnover on downs
7	DEN	DEN 25	3	-20	0:51	Defensive touchdown
8	DEN	DEN 25	9	48	4:05	Turnover on downs
9	KC	KC 35	4	-4	2:03	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 15	6	39	0:57	Punt
11	KC	KC 37	1	0	0:05	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	8	10	2:10	Punt
13	DEN	DEN 27	6	19	2:48	Punt
14	KC	KC 14	8	26	3:49	Punt
15	DEN	DEN 15	4	9	1:13	Punt
16	KC	KC 27	3	73	0:40	Touchdown
17	DEN	DEN 25	5	2	0:48	Punt
18	KC	KC 35	7	14	2:42	Punt
19	DEN	DEN 11	10	20	3:43	Punt
20	KC	KC 32	4	0	2:03	Punt
21	DEN	DEN 35	6	16	1:54	Turnover on downs
22	KC	KC 49	5	30	3:06	Turnover on downs
23	DEN	DEN 25	6	8	1:48	Punt
24	KC	KC 22	4	5	2:15	Punt
25	DEN	DEN 26	2	7	1:01	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3
Closing total: 49.5
KC moneyline: -149
DEN moneyline: +134

Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 36 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 75°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: KC 4 days · DEN 4 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Vic Fangio

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.