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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:46 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
2019 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 17, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
ChiefsKansas City30
BY 24final margin
BroncosDenver6
Kansas City Chiefs 30 at Denver Broncos 6. Final.
Chiefs -3 ✓U 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 7
Kansas City Chiefs 30, Broncos 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 7:17, 2nd and 9, on J.Flacco — 10.9 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.
Kansas City Chiefs 30–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:17, Chiefs +10.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:17 · 2nd and 9
J.Flacco
Chiefs
(7:17) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 17 for -9 yards (53-A.Hitchens). FUMBLES (53-A.Hitchens) [53-A.Hitchens], RECOVERED by KC-59-R.Ragland at DEN 5. 59-R.Ragland for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.SpencerBroncosQ1 13:40(13:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 33 for 5 yards (55-F.Clark). PENALTY on KC-55-F.Clark, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DEN 33.
6.9pts
T.KelceChiefsQ1 6:19(6:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 29 for 13 yards (31-J.Simmons).
7.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.07 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.55 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Chiefs at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 5 of 15 on third down, against Broncos at 1 of 13 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chiefs161 of 167 plays carry both curves
(7:17) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 17 for -9 yards (53-A.Hitchens). FUMBLES (53-A.Hitchens) [53-A.Hitchens], RECOVERED by KC-59-R.Ragland at DEN 5. 59-R.Ragland for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −10.9 for BroncosExpected points −7.66 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 10 points higher than the market did.play 58
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:17KC +11% win prob(7:17) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 17 for -9 yards (53-A.Hitchens). FUMBLES (53-A.Hitchens) [53-A.Hitchens], RECOVERED by KC-59-R.Ragland at DEN 5. 59-R.Ragland for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:19DEN +8% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 29 for 13 yards (31-J.Simmons).
1st · 13:40DEN +7% win prob(13:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 33 for 5 yards (55-F.Clark). PENALTY on KC-55-F.Clark, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DEN 33.
1st · 9:52DEN +7% win prob(9:52) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to KC 1 for 9 yards (53-A.Hitchens; 20-M.Claiborne).
1st · 2:47KC +5% win prob(2:47) 6-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to KC 43, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at DEN 21 for 36 yards (36-T.Marshall).
1st · 3:23KC +5% win prob(3:23) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 9 for -10 yards (97-A.Okafor). FUMBLES (97-A.Okafor) [97-A.Okafor], recovered by DEN-28-R.Freeman at DEN 9. 28-R.Freeman to DEN 9 for no gain (55-F.Clark).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Hardman's 21-yard touchdown catch with 4:19 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:12R.Freeman·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+60–6
1st4:19M.Hardman·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom P.Mahomesfrom P.MahomesLead never changed again+77–6
1st1:04H.Butker·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+310–6
2nd8:04H.Butker·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+313–6
4th5:08H.Butker·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+330–6
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryBroncos
Chiefs7–2Broncos
272Total yards205
4.8Yards per play3.2
39%Success rate29%
33%Third-down rate8%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays3
12First downs13
1Sacks taken9
0Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Chiefs: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.40Broncos: −0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Chiefs: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.55Broncos: −0.55 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Chiefs: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.10Broncos: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 57 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Broncos’s 65 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Broncos 2.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor.
high through week 7Against their seasonFourth Down
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 40.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 6.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.5 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.2% in week 6 against 23.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +17.7 pts in week 6 against +4.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.4 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Broncos9.7%
right on their number · −3.3 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 30.8 points above their season mean of 19.2% and 1.5 times their own 20.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
47 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
62Austin ReiterC · Every snap100%61 snaps
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%61 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco sacked−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:17) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 17 for -9 yards (53-A.Hitchens). FUMBLES (53-A.Hitchens) [53-A.Hitchens], RECOVERED by KC-59-R.Ragland at DEN 5. 59-R.Ragland for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 7:17 · Broncos · 2nd & 9 at DEN 26 · lost 21 · -7.66 EP · −14.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 75 yards from the DEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.19
Success rate
33%
Yards
476
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3870%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.3271%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.2759%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.8664%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.0011%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.2367%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Chiefs0Broncos6
Touchdown14 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs6Broncos6
Chiefs7Broncos6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 21
Punt6 plays
Chiefs10Broncos6
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 15
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 39
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt1 play
Chiefs13Broncos6
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Broncos 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Chiefs19Broncos6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 26
Chiefs20Broncos6
No good9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 18
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 41
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Broncos 44
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 36
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Broncos 49
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Chiefs 48
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Broncos 24
Chiefs26Broncos6
Chiefs27Broncos6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chiefs 43
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 27
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 49
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Broncos 25
4th quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Broncos 37
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Chiefs 34
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Chiefs 49
Chiefs30Broncos6
Field goal5 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Broncos 21
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 37
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Chiefs 27
The period ended3 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Broncos 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -3
Closing total
49.5
Chiefs moneyline
-149
Broncos moneyline
+134
Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 36 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 65°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north-west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Chiefs 4 days · Broncos 4 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Vic Fangio
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 11:15DEN +5% win prob(11:15) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 32-A.Janovich to KC 13 for 22 yards (53-A.Hitchens).
1st · 11:24DEN +5% win prob(11:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 40 - No Play.
Chiefscategory by categoryBroncos
Chiefs0
Broncos6
