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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Chargers 20 at Tennessee Titans 23. Final.
Titans -3 pushO 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 7
Tennessee Titans 23, Chargers 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:19, 2nd and 1, on M.Gordon — 50.3 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:19 · 2nd and 1
M.Gordon
Titans
(:19) 25-M.Gordon right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-M.Gordon right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard). FUMBLES (59-W.Woodyard), RECOVERED by TEN-99-J.Casey at TEN 0. Touchback.
Titans closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Tennessee Titans 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:19, Titans +50.3% win probability on one snap.
50.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
R.TeamerChargersQ3 7:17(7:17) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 36-R.Teamer (42-U.Nwosu) [42-U.Nwosu] at LAC 38. 36-R.Teamer to LAC 41 for 3 yards (11-A.Brown).
17.4pts
A.EkelerChargersQ4 0:44(:44) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to TEN 1 for 15 yards (24-K.Vaccaro; 26-L.Ryan).
19.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Titans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chargers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — -0.18 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.55 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Chargers at +0.04 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Chargers154 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:19) 25-M.Gordon right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-M.Gordon right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (59-W.Woodya
Swing +50.3 for TitansExpected points +5.43 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:19LAC +50% win prob(:19) 25-M.Gordon right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-M.Gordon right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard). FUMBLES (59-W.Woodyard), RECOVERED by TEN-99-J.Casey at TEN 0. Touchback.
4th · 0:44TEN +19% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to TEN 1 for 15 yards (24-K.Vaccaro; 26-L.Ryan).
3rd · 7:17LAC +17% win prob(7:17) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 36-R.Teamer (42-U.Nwosu) [42-U.Nwosu] at LAC 38. 36-R.Teamer to LAC 41 for 3 yards (11-A.Brown).
4th · 0:34LAC +15% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right tackle to TEN 1 for no gain (98-J.Simmons, 54-R.Evans).
4th · 13:16TEN +13% win prob(13:16) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 19-T.Sharpe for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Sharpe's 5-yard touchdown catch with 13:16 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:06C.Parkey·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+30–3
1st0:07C.McLaughlin·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+33–3
Titans ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Chargers: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.18Titans: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.36Chargers: +0.36 expected points added per play
+0.47Titans: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.55Chargers: −0.55 expected points added per play
−0.18Titans: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 60 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Titans’s 60 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Titans 3.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Titans12.8%
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3% against a season mean of 22.8% — and TEN swings 12.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chris MiltonCBAaron StinnieGKevin PamphileGJayon BrownILBSharif FinchOLBDerick RobersonOLBRod SmithRB
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Marcus MariotaQBDalyn DawkinsRB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Gordon right−51% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:19) 25-M.Gordon right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-M.Gordon right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard). FUMBLES (59-W.Woodyard), RECOVERED by TEN-99-J.Casey at TEN 0. Touchback.
Q4 0:19 · Chargers · 2nd & goal at TEN 1 · gained nothing · -5.43 EP · −51.1% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 94 yards from the LAC 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
45%
Yards
768
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.1872%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1667%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.2940%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.2044%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.1638%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Titans 31
Offense on the fieldOne tight end, one punter, four linebackers, one long snapper and four backsDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and three backsPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Chargers0Titans3
Field goal11 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Chargers 26
Chargers3Titans3
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Titans 11
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Chargers 40
Chargers9Titans3
Chargers10Titans3
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 6 to the Titans 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Chargers10Titans9
Chargers10Titans10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Chargers 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Chargers 47
Punt4 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Chargers 40
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 41 to midfield
The period ended10 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Chargers 22
4th quarter54 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chargers10Titans16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Chargers 5
Chargers13Titans16
Field goal8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Titans 27
Chargers13Titans22
Chargers13Titans23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Chargers 11
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Chargers19Titans23
Chargers20Titans23
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Titans 41
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Chargers 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Chargers 49 to the Titans 1
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Chargerscategory by categoryTitans
Chargers0
Titans3
