For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
DYNATYZE
Loading
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
Los Angeles Rams 37, Falcons 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:11, 4th and 2, on G.Zuerlein — 15.3 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Rams closed -3 and covered, winning by 27.
Los Angeles Rams 37–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:11, Falcons +15.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:11 · 4th and 2
G.Zuerlein
Falcons
(5:11) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
R.WoodsRamsQ1 6:57(6:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 17-R.Woods to ATL 30 for 16 yards (26-I.Oliver).
10.7pts
T.GurleyRamsQ2 11:22(11:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 30-T.Gurley for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.48 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Falcons at 1 chunk play.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Rams167 of 176 plays carry both curves
(5:11) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Swing +15.3 for FalconsExpected points +4.24 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 15 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:11LA +15% win prob(5:11) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
1st · 6:57ATL +11% win prob(6:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 17-R.Woods to ATL 30 for 16 yards (26-I.Oliver).
2nd · 11:22ATL +9% win prob(11:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 30-T.Gurley for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:24ATL +7% win prob(4:24) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 33-N.Scott pushed ob at ATL 23 for 23 yards (28-J.Miller).
1st · 8:14ATL +6% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 18-C.Kupp to ATL 44 for 17 yards (37-R.Allen, 26-I.Oliver).
1st · 3:52LA +5% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 15 for -8 yards (58-C.Littleton).
2nd · 12:13
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Gurley's 13-yard touchdown catch with 11:22 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:28M.Bryant·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Schaub · snap J.Harris+30–3
1st1:47G.Zuerlein·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–3
2nd11:22T.Gurley·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom J.Gofffrom J.GoffLead never changed again+710–3
2nd2:00G.Zuerlein·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+313–3
4th0:28D.Williams·return TDreturn touchdownon the kickon the kick+737–10
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryFalcons
Rams9–0Falcons
381Total yards225
5.1Yards per play4.3
46%Success rate44%
50%Third-down rate25%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays1
22First downs13
0Sacks taken5
0Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Rams: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.26Falcons: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.48Rams: +0.48 expected points added per play
−0.25Falcons: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Rams: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.27Falcons: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 74 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Falcons’s 52 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Falcons 1.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's sack or hit rate, 28.2%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 16.7% in week 5.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +14.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.84× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Falcons7.9%
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.2%, 14.0 points above their season mean of 14.2% and 1.8 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Zuerlein−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:11) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Q1 5:11 · Rams · 4th & 2 at ATL 22 · gained nothing · -4.24 EP · −13.7% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 85 yards from the LA 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
605
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1864%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.3182%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15-0.1420%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0338%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.1157%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0650%
Rams0 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Drive ended8 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Rams 41
Rams0Falcons3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Field goal15 plays
Punt4 plays
Rams3Falcons3
Field goal5 plays, from the Rams 43 to the Falcons 37
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Rams 49
2nd quarter54 plays
Rams9Falcons3
Rams10Falcons3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Falcons 13
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Rams 43
Rams13Falcons3
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Falcons 7
No good6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Rams 32
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Falcons 47
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Rams19Falcons3
Rams20Falcons3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Falcons 8
Intercepted4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 33
Rams26Falcons3
Rams27Falcons3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Falcons 1
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Rams 40
4th quarter41 plays
Fumble lost3 plays
Rams30Falcons3
Field goal17 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Falcons 1
Rams30Falcons9
Rams30Falcons10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Rams 10
Rams36Falcons10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 48 to the Falcons 39
Rams37Falcons10
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -3
Closing total
54.5
Rams moneyline
-154
Falcons moneyline
+139
Rams closed -3 and covered, winning by 27.
Total closed 54.5; the game landed 47 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 71°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the north-west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Rest
Rams 7 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Dan Quinn
ATL +5% win prob
(12:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee [54-F.Oluokun]. PENALTY on ATL-54-F.Oluokun, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 36 - No Play.
3rd · 13:51ATL +5% win prob(13:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 81-G.Everett to ATL 28 for 33 yards (35-J.Carter).
Ramscategory by categoryFalcons
Rams0
Falcons3
