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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:46 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Buffalo Bills 31, Dolphins 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:41, 3rd and 19, on D.Singletary — 23.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Bills closed -17, won by 10 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 31–21. Biggest swing: Q2 0:41, Dolphins +23.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:41 · 3rd and 19
D.Singletary
Dolphins
(:41) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to BUF 17 for 1 yard (30-C.Lammons, 47-V.Biegel).
23.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.WhiteBillsQ3 5:07(5:07) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 84-I.Ford INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 2. 27-T.White ran ob at BUF 2 for no gain.
12.3pts
P.WilliamsBillsQ4 8:14(8:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 18-P.Williams to MIA 28 for 6 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-55-J.Hughes at MIA 27. 55-J.Hughes to MIA 16 for 11 yards (18-P.Williams).
14.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 13 on third down, against Bills at 4 of 11 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at +0.05 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.34 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at +0.14 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 22.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 45 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Dolphins158 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:41) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to BUF 17 for 1 yard (30-C.Lammons, 47-V.Biegel).
Swing −23.9 for BillsExpected points +0.96 for BillsThe model had Dolphins 36 points higher than the market did.play 79
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:41MIA +24% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to BUF 17 for 1 yard (30-C.Lammons, 47-V.Biegel).
4th · 8:14MIA +15% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 18-P.Williams to MIA 28 for 6 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-55-J.Hughes at MIA 27. 55-J.Hughes to MIA 16 for 11 yards (18-P.Williams).
3rd · 5:07MIA +12% win prob(5:07) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 84-I.Ford INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 2. 27-T.White ran ob at BUF 2 for no gain.
3rd · 6:42BUF +11% win prob(6:42) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Haack up the middle to BUF 2 for 2 yards (27-T.White).
3rd · 5:51MIA +10% win prob(5:51) 14-R.Fitzpatrick up the middle to BUF 12 for -10 yards (97-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (97-J.Phillips), and recovers at BUF 12. 14-R.Fitzpatrick to BUF 12 for no gain (93-T.Murphy).
2nd · 5:10MIA +9% win prob(5:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -10 yards (47-V.Biegel).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Brown's 20-yard touchdown catch with 13:55 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:58S.Hauschka·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+30–3
1st3:52S.Hauschka·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+30–6
4th1:45M.Hyde·45-yd return TD45-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+721–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Dolphins5–4Bills
381Total yards307
5.9Yards per play5.9
48%Success rate50%
54%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays10
21First downs17
1Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Dolphins: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.21Bills: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Dolphins: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.34Bills: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Dolphins: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.02Bills: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 65 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Bills’s 52 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Bills 3.
NoteDolphins outgained Bills 381-307 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 71.2% in week 6 against 56.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Bills15.8%
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 56.0%, 10.5 points below their season mean of 66.5% and 1.5 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
76Evan BoehmG · Every snap100%72 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Every snap100%72 snaps
63Michael DeiterOG · Every snap100%72 snaps
14Ryan FitzpatrickQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
18Preston WilliamsWR · Full-time90%65 snaps
61J'Marcus WebbT · Full-time90%65 snaps
11DeVante ParkerWR · Full-time85%61 snaps
62Shaq CalhounG · Heavy rotation75%54 snaps
22Mark WaltonHB · Heavy rotation53%38 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Rotational44%32 snaps
32Kenyan DrakeRB · Rotational40%29 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Rotational36%26 snaps
83Nick O'LearyTE · Rotational26%19 snaps
64Chris ReedG · Rotational25%18 snaps
38Chandler CoxFB · Rotational25%18 snaps
15Albert WilsonWR · Situational22%16 snaps
72Isaiah PrinceT · Situational14%10 snaps
19Jakeem GrantWR · Situational10%7 snaps
27Kalen BallageRB · Situational7%5 snaps
84Isaiah FordWR · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Daniel KilgoreCXavien HowardCBKeaton SutherlandGAvery MossOLBMyles GaskinRBReshad JonesSSAndrew DonnalT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Singletary left+42% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:41) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to BUF 17 for 1 yard (30-C.Lammons, 47-V.Biegel).
Q2 0:41 · Bills · 3rd & 19 at BUF 16 · gained 1 · +0.96 EP · +42.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 98 yards from the BUF 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
688
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0768%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1270%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.5636%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.6757%
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.2020%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Dolphins0Bills3
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 21
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 33
Dolphins0Bills6
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Dolphins 16
The period ended11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 12
2nd quarter37 plays
Dolphins6Bills6
Dolphins7Bills6
Touchdown2 plays
Dolphins7Bills9
Field goal12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Dolphins13Bills9
Dolphins14Bills9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 12
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 28
Punt5 plays
1st quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
2nd quarter3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Intercepted21 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 2
The period ended11 plays, from the Bills 2 to the Dolphins 26
4th quarter59 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Dolphins14Bills15
Dolphins14Bills17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 20
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 44
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Dolphins 8 to the Dolphins 22
Dolphins14Bills23
Dolphins14Bills24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Dolphins 3
Punt6 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Bills 40
Dolphins20Bills24
Dolphins21Bills24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Bills 11
Dolphins21Bills30
Dolphins21Bills31
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Dolphins0
Bills3
