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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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Minnesota Vikings 42, Lions 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:06, 3rd and 8, on M.Jones — 18.1 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Minnesota Vikings 42–30. Biggest swing: Q2 0:06, Lions +18.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:06 · 3rd and 8
M.Jones
Lions
(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.HallLionsQ3 5:22(5:22) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-M.Hall pushed ob at MIN 30 for 47 yards (41-A.Harris).
9.9pts
D.BaileyLionsQ4 12:56(12:56) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
10.0pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.74 expected points per dropback, against Lions at +0.25 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.45 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.16 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Lions at 6 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 1 giveaway.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Vikings181 of 191 plays carry both curves
(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +18.1 for LionsExpected points +4.08 for LionsThe model had Lions 12 points higher than the market did.play 97
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:06DET +18% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:56MIN +10% win prob(12:56) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
3rd · 5:22DET +10% win prob(5:22) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-M.Hall pushed ob at MIN 30 for 47 yards (41-A.Harris).
4th · 3:00DET +10% win prob(3:00) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to DET 4 for 66 yards (32-T.Wilson).
1st · 13:54DET +9% win prob(13:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 41-J.McKissic to MIN 39 for 22 yards (22-H.Smith).
4th · 8:58MIN +7% win prob(8:58) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 41-J.McKissic (54-E.Kendricks).
2nd · 11:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Ham's 5-yard touchdown catch with 9:08 left in the 3rd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Vikings ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.74 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.45Vikings: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.16Lions: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.74Vikings: +0.74 expected points added per play
+0.25Lions: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Vikings: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.04Lions: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 67 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Lions’s 68 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 6, Lions 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
DET's early-down pass rate, 65.5%, is past their previous high of 60.0% in week 6 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.9 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−1.46× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Lions8.8%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.3%, 6.9 points below their season mean of 15.2% and 1.5 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:06 · Lions · 3rd & 8 at MIN 10 · gained 10 · +4.08 EP · +15.3% win probability
179 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 97 yards from the MIN 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
+0.22
Success rate
50%
Yards
937
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.3384%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23+0.3639%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.2965%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.3940%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0313%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.8650%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1771%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR6+0.8867%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 37
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Vikings 33
Vikings0Lions6
Vikings0Lions7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Vikings 16
Vikings6Lions7
Vikings7Lions7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Lions 25
Vikings7Lions13
Vikings7Lions14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 3
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Vikings13Lions14
Vikings14Lions14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Lions 1
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Lions 33
Vikings20Lions14
Vikings21Lions14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Vikings 3 to the Lions 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Vikings21Lions20
Vikings21Lions21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 10
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Vikings27Lions21
Vikings28Lions21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 3
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 33
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 24
Vikings28Lions24
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 12 to the Vikings 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 45
4th quarter53 plays
No good6 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Lions 27
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Vikings 41
Vikings34Lions24
Vikings35Lions24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Lions 15
Vikings35Lions30
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 2
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Vikings41Lions30
Vikings42Lions30
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 4
Intercepted5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -2.5
Closing total
43.5
Vikings moneyline
-137
Lions moneyline
+124
Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 72 — over by 28.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bradley Rogers
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Lions 6 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Matt Patricia
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
DET +7% win prob
(11:00) 6-S.Martin punts 62 yards to MIN 5, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes pushed ob at MIN 15 for 10 yards (35-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at MIN 5.
1st · 6:30DET +7% win prob(6:30) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 84-I.Smith pushed ob at DET 28 for 28 yards (29-R.Melvin).
Vikingscategory by categoryLions
Vikings0
Lions6
