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2019 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 21, 2019 · MetLife Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

33

New York Jets

0

NE -9.5 ✓U 43 ✓

New England Patriots 33–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:00, NYJ +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJNE
Q1 · 12:00NE NYJ NE ball · 3rd & 7NE 75%

(12:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NYJ 40 for 9 yards (53-B.Cashman).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 12:00NYJ +7% win prob(12:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NYJ 40 for 9 yards (53-B.Cashman).
  2. Q1 · 5:24NE +6% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NYJ 18. 32-D.McCourty to NYJ 12 for 6 yards (84-R.Griffin).
  3. Q1 · 9:59NYJ +5% win prob(9:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NYJ 26 for 14 yards (27-D.Roberts).
  4. Q1 · 14:21NYJ +3% win prob(14:21) 11-J.Edelman left end pushed ob at NE 37 for 9 yards (20-M.Maye).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPatriotsJets
Offensive plays7752
Total yards325 (edge)155
Yards per play4.2 (edge)3.0
Expected points added / play0.03 (edge)-0.64
Success rate43% (edge)29%
Dropback rate58%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)-0.96
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.06 (edge)-0.07
Third downs7/16 (edge)2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)8
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers1 (edge)5

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.64.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NENE 2218788:47Touchdown
2NYJNYJ 8320:57Interception
3NENYJ 124-41:27Turnover on downs
4NYJNYJ 25551:20Punt
5NENE 338672:20Touchdown
6NYJNYJ 254130:58Fumble
7NENYJ 3810464:53Touchdown
8NYJNYJ 248183:53Interception
9NENE 1481:54Punt
10NYJNE 467282:18Turnover on downs
11NENE 286150:57Punt
12NYJNYJ 15100:16End of half
13NYJNYJ 248273:58Interception
14NENE 386222:37Punt
15NYJNYJ 3230:44Turnover on downs
16NENE 33200:39Interception
17NYJNE 33420:54Interception
18NENE 20662:26Punt
19NYJNYJ 20431:28Punt
20NENE 4112594:42Touchdown
21NYJNYJ 25500:29Punt
22NENYJ 41482:26Punt
23NYJNYJ 149483:30Punt
24NENE 87213:12Punt
25NENYJ 294-11:05Punt
26NYJNYJ 12460:48Punt
27NENE 19201:02End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 78 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NE -9.5
Closing total
43
NE moneyline
-371
NYJ moneyline
+311

Patriots closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 33.

Total closed 43; the game landed 33 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
58°F, wind 0 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
NE 11 days · NYJ 8 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Adam Gase

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.