2019 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 21, 2019 · MetLife Stadium
New England PatriotsWinner
33
New York Jets
0
New England Patriots 33–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:00, NYJ +7% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(12:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NYJ 40 for 9 yards (53-B.Cashman).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 12:00NYJ +7% win prob(12:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NYJ 40 for 9 yards (53-B.Cashman).
- Q1 · 5:24NE +6% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NYJ 18. 32-D.McCourty to NYJ 12 for 6 yards (84-R.Griffin).
- Q1 · 9:59NYJ +5% win prob(9:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NYJ 26 for 14 yards (27-D.Roberts).
- Q1 · 14:21NYJ +3% win prob(14:21) 11-J.Edelman left end pushed ob at NE 37 for 9 yards (20-M.Maye).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Patriots | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 77 | 52 |
| Total yards | 325 (edge) | 155 |
| Yards per play | 4.2 (edge) | 3.0 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.03 (edge) | -0.64 |
| Success rate | 43% (edge) | 29% |
| Dropback rate | 58% | 63% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.10 (edge) | -0.96 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.06 (edge) | -0.07 |
| Third downs | 7/16 (edge) | 2/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 3 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 (edge) | 8 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 5 |
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.64.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | NE 22 | 18 | 78 | 8:47 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | NYJ | NYJ 8 | 3 | 2 | 0:57 | Interception | |
| 3 | NE | NYJ 12 | 4 | -4 | 1:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | 5 | 1:20 | Punt | |
| 5 | NE | NE 33 | 8 | 67 | 2:20 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 4 | 13 | 0:58 | Fumble | |
| 7 | NE | NYJ 38 | 10 | 46 | 4:53 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | NYJ | NYJ 24 | 8 | 18 | 3:53 | Interception | |
| 9 | NE | NE 1 | 4 | 8 | 1:54 | Punt | |
| 10 | NYJ | NE 46 | 7 | 28 | 2:18 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | NE | NE 28 | 6 | 15 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 12 | NYJ | NYJ 15 | 1 | 0 | 0:16 | End of half | |
| 13 | NYJ | NYJ 24 | 8 | 27 | 3:58 | Interception | |
| 14 | NE | NE 38 | 6 | 22 | 2:37 | Punt | |
| 15 | NYJ | NYJ 3 | 2 | 3 | 0:44 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | NE | NE 33 | 2 | 0 | 0:39 | Interception | |
| 17 | NYJ | NE 33 | 4 | 2 | 0:54 | Interception | |
| 18 | NE | NE 20 | 6 | 6 | 2:26 | Punt | |
| 19 | NYJ | NYJ 20 | 4 | 3 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 20 | NE | NE 41 | 12 | 59 | 4:42 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | 0 | 0:29 | Punt | |
| 22 | NE | NYJ 41 | 4 | 8 | 2:26 | Punt | |
| 23 | NYJ | NYJ 14 | 9 | 48 | 3:30 | Punt | |
| 24 | NE | NE 8 | 7 | 21 | 3:12 | Punt | |
| 25 | NE | NYJ 29 | 4 | -1 | 1:05 | Punt | |
| 26 | NYJ | NYJ 12 | 4 | 6 | 0:48 | Punt | |
| 27 | NE | NE 19 | 2 | 0 | 1:02 | End of game |
0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 78 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -9.5
- Closing total
- 43
- NE moneyline
- -371
- NYJ moneyline
- +311
Patriots closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 33.
Total closed 43; the game landed 33 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- MetLife Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- 58°F, wind 0 mph
- Referee
- Shawn Hochuli
- Rest
- NE 11 days · NYJ 8 days
- Coaches
- Bill Belichick vs Adam Gase
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.