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New England Patriots 33 at New York Jets 0. Final.
Patriots -9.5 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 7
New England Patriots 33, Jets 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:00, 3rd and 7, on J.Meyers — 6.7 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:00 · 3rd and 7
J.Meyers
Patriots
(12:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NYJ 40 for 9 yards (53-B.Cashman).
6.7
Patriots closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 33.
New England Patriots 33–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:00, Patriots +6.7% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.EdelmanPatriotsQ1 9:59(9:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NYJ 26 for 14 yards (27-D.Roberts).
5.1pts
D.McCourtyPatriotsQ1 5:24(5:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NYJ 18. 32-D.McCourty to NYJ 12 for 6 yards (84-R.Griffin).
6.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jets at 5 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.96 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.64 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Patriots172 of 179 plays carry both curves
(12:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NYJ 40 for 9 yards (53-B.Cashman).
Swing −6.7 for JetsExpected points −2.01 for JetsThe model had Jets 32 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:00NYJ +7% win prob(12:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NYJ 40 for 9 yards (53-B.Cashman).
1st · 5:24NE +6% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NYJ 18. 32-D.McCourty to NYJ 12 for 6 yards (84-R.Griffin).
1st · 9:59NYJ +5% win prob(9:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NYJ 26 for 14 yards (27-D.Roberts).
1st · 14:21NYJ +3% win prob(14:21) 11-J.Edelman left end pushed ob at NE 37 for 9 yards (20-M.Maye).
2nd · 14:15NE +3% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 42 for -9 yards (55-J.Simon). FUMBLES (55-J.Simon) [55-J.Simon], RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at NYJ 38. 53-K.Van Noy to NYJ 38 for no gain (84-R.Griffin).
1st · 3:53NE +2% win prob(3:53) 2-M.Nugent 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
S.Michel's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 6:17 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:17S.Michel·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st3:53M.Nugent·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+310–0
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.96 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Patriots: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.64Jets: −0.64 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Patriots: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.96Jets: −0.96 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Patriots: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.07Jets: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 77 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Jets’s 52 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 6, Jets 2.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.64.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's sack or hit rate turned over: 24.2% in week 6 against 6.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
NE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 6 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.5 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.2 pts in week 6 against −5.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Jets6.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.9 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.1%, 10.2 points below their season mean of 16.2% and 1.4 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
46 dressed · 7 inactive
75Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%82 snaps
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%82 snaps
72Marshall NewhouseT · Every snap100%82 snaps
61Marcus CannonT · Full-time98%80 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Full-time95%78 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Full-time94%77 snaps
11Julian EdelmanWR · Full-time89%73 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Full-time88%72 snaps
84Benjamin WatsonTE · Heavy rotation76%62 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Heavy rotation54%44 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Heavy rotation51%42 snaps
82Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational46%38 snaps
26Sony MichelRB · Rotational38%31 snaps
38Brandon BoldenRB · Situational22%18 snaps
80Gunner OlszewskiWR · Situational18%15 snaps
65Jermaine EluemunorT · Situational7%6 snaps
66James FerentzC · Situational6%5 snaps
4Jarrett StidhamQB · Situational6%5 snaps
37Damien HarrisRB · Situational6%5 snaps
52Elandon RobertsMLB · Situational4%3 snaps
18Matthew SlaterWR · Situational2%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Michael BennettDERex BurkheadRBPatrick ChungSSKorey CunninghamTRyan IzzoTEMatt LaCosseTEJosh GordonWR
New York Jets
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Brandon ShellT · Every snap100%60 snaps
71Alex LewisG · Every snap100%60 snaps
75Chuma EdogaT · Every snap100%60 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
67Brian WintersG · Full-time97%58 snaps
26Le'Veon BellRB · Full-time93%56 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Full-time92%55 snaps
84Ryan GriffinTE · Full-time83%50 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Heavy rotation78%47 snaps
18Demaryius ThomasWR · Heavy rotation72%43 snaps
78Jonotthan HarrisonC · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
55Ryan KalilC · Rotational43%26 snaps
17Vyncint SmithWR · Rotational27%16 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Situational17%10 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Situational12%7 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Situational10%6 snaps
29Bilal PowellRB · Situational7%4 snaps
87Daniel BrownTE · Situational5%3 snaps
77Tom ComptonG · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Henry AndersonDEKelechi OsemeleGAlbert McClellanOLBNeville HewittOLBTrenton CannonRBKelvin BeachumTChris HerndonTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
David FalesQBConor McDermottT
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NYJ 18. 32-D.McCourty to NYJ 12 for 6 yards (84-R.Griffin).
Q1 5:24 · Jets · 2nd & 8 at NYJ 10 · gained nothing · -4.79 EP · −11.7% win probability
170 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 78 yards from the NE 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
37%
Yards
477
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-1.0078%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.1475%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.0613%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.0692%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR10+0.1270%
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR9+0.55100%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Patriots6Jets0
Patriots7Jets0
Touchdown18 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Jets 3
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 10
Patriots10Jets0
Field goal4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 30
Patriots16Jets0
Patriots17Jets0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Jets 26
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Patriots 49
Patriots23Jets0
Patriots24Jets0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 1
Intercepted11 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Patriots 19
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 1 to the Patriots 10
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Patriots 28
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 43
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Patriots 49
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Jets 40
Patriots26Jets0
Drive ended2 plays, from the Jets 3 to the Jets 6
Intercepted3 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Patriots 11
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 41
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 23
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Jets 20
4th quarter48 plays
Patriots32Jets0
Patriots33Jets0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Jets 1
Punt6 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Jets 33
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Patriots 38
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Patriots 29
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jets 18
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
