2019 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2019 · Soldier Field

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Chicago Bears

CHI -4 upsetO 37 ✓Bears closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 36–25. Biggest swing: Q1 5:29, NO +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:29NO — CHI CHI ball · 2nd & 6CHI 58%

(5:29) 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). New Orleans challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:29NO +20% win prob(5:29) 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). New Orleans challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at CHI 24. 24-V.Bell to CHI 24 for no gain (17-A.Miller).
Q2 · 2:22NO +14% win prob(2:22) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Q1 · 3:14CHI +13% win prob3-W.Lutz kicks 67 yards from NO 35 to CHI -2. 84-C.Patterson for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 12:50CHI +11% win prob(12:50) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn to CHI 3 for 45 yards (20-P.Amukamara).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Bears
Offensive plays	72	64
Total yards	426 (edge)	254
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	-0.22
Success rate	46% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	57%	89%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-1.73
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 20	5	7	1:31	Punt
2	NO	NO 41	5	9	2:10	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 12	6	16	2:42	Punt
4	NO	NO 27	5	31	2:41	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 21	2	3	0:33	Fumble
6	NO	CHI 24	6	24	2:09	Touchdown
7	CHI	—	2	0	0:15	Defensive touchdown
8	NO	NO 12	5	7	1:38	Punt
9	CHI	CHI 33	11	39	4:48	Turnover on downs
10	NO	NO 28	13	52	5:02	Turnover on downs
11	CHI	CHI 25	5	8	0:40	Punt
12	NO	NO 33	7	43	3:34	Turnover on downs
13	CHI	CHI 32	4	3	0:41	Punt
14	NO	NO 37	4	5	0:22	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 17	4	5	0:59	Defensive touchdown
16	NO	NO 23	1	0	0:15	End of half
17	NO	NO 25	8	75	3:00	Touchdown
18	CHI	CHI 25	2	4	0:13	Fumble
19	NO	CHI 29	4	-5	1:30	Turnover on downs
20	CHI	CHI 42	4	-2	1:49	Punt
21	NO	NO 24	12	76	5:33	Touchdown
22	CHI	CHI 19	5	2	1:11	Punt
23	NO	50	9	48	3:59	Turnover on downs
24	CHI	CHI 25	9	35	3:27	Turnover on downs
25	NO	NO 45	8	55	4:45	Touchdown
26	CHI	CHI 25	12	77	2:02	Touchdown
27	NO	CHI 43	11	57	1:43	Touchdown
28	NO	CHI 39	4	6	0:48	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 77 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -4
Closing total: 37
NO moneyline: +188
CHI moneyline: -213

Bears closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37; the game landed 61 — over by 24.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: NO 7 days · CHI 14 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Matt Nagy