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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 36, Bears 25 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:29, 2nd and 6, on A.Miller — 20.2 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:29 · 2nd and 6
A.Miller
Saints
(5:29) 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). New Orleans challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at CHI 24. 24-V.Bell to CHI 24 for no gain (17-A.Miller).
Bears closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New Orleans Saints 36–25. Biggest swing: Q1 5:29, Saints +20.2% win probability on one snap.
20.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBearsQ1 3:143-W.Lutz kicks 67 yards from NO 35 to CHI -2. 84-C.Patterson for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.6pts
W.LutzBearsQ2 2:22(2:22) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
14.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Bears at -1.73 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Bears at 1 chunk play.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Bears at 2 of 12 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Saints180 of 191 plays carry both curves
(5:29) 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). New Orleans challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-
Swing −20.2 for BearsExpected points −5.32 for BearsThe model had Saints 10 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:29NO +20% win prob(5:29) 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). New Orleans challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at CHI 24. 24-V.Bell to CHI 24 for no gain (17-A.Miller).
2nd · 2:22NO +14% win prob(2:22) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
1st · 3:14CHI +13% win prob3-W.Lutz kicks 67 yards from NO 35 to CHI -2. 84-C.Patterson for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:50CHI +11% win prob(12:50) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn to CHI 3 for 45 yards (20-P.Amukamara).
3rd · 11:55NO +10% win prob(11:55) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to CHI 29 for 4 yards (43-M.Williams; 92-M.Davenport). FUMBLES (43-M.Williams), RECOVERED by NO-53-A.Klein at CHI 29. 53-A.Klein to CHI 29 for no gain (32-D.Montgomery).
1st · 13:37NO +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
W.Lutz's 39-yard field goal with 6:35 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:37Saints·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+22–0
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Saints: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.22Bears: −0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.32Saints: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.03Bears: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Saints: +0.10 expected points added per play
−1.73Bears: −1.73 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 72 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Bears’s 64 at 89%. Red-zone trips: Saints 7, Bears 3.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's early-down pass rate, 85.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 15.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 75.0% in week 1.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CHI's pass rate over expected, +15.5 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 6.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +11.7 pts in week 1.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Bears9.8%
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 85.7%, 28.6 points above their season mean of 57.1% and 2.5 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
47 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%76 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%76 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%76 snaps
75Andrus PeatT · Every snap100%76 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%76 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Full-time97%74 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time95%72 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Full-time84%64 snaps
19Ted GinnWR · Heavy rotation70%53 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation67%51 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Heavy rotation55%42 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Rotational36%27 snaps
85Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational25%19 snaps
64Will ClappC · Situational24%18 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational17%13 snaps
11Deonte HarrisWR · Situational11%8 snaps
35Zach ZennerRB · Situational9%7 snaps
84Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Situational8%6 snaps
43Marcus WilliamsFS · Situational1%1 snap
27Dwayne WashingtonRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Ken CrawleyCBTrey HendricksonDEDrew BreesQBAlvin KamaraRBEthan GreenidgeTJared CookTETre'Quan SmithWR
Duke ShelleyDBJonathan HarrisDEKevin Pierre-LouisILBJosh WoodsLBAlex BarsTBradley SowellTERiley RidleyWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Ted LarsenCChase DanielQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Miller right−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:29) 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). New Orleans challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-A.Miller right end to CHI 26 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at CHI 24. 24-V.Bell to CHI 24 for no gain (17-A.Miller).
Q1 5:29 · Bears · 2nd & 6 at CHI 25 · lost 1 · -5.32 EP · −15.0% win probability
178 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 76 yards from the NO 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
678
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0196%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1268%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.2227%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.3557%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-1.2050%
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR6+0.1333%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1280%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Saints2Bears0
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 27
Drive ended4 plays, from the Saints 41 to midfield
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 28
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Saints 46
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Bears 25
Saints8Bears0
Saints9Bears0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 7
Saints9Bears6
Saints9Bears7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Saints 19
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Saints 48
2nd quarter51 plays
Saints9Bears10
Field goal8 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Saints 24
Saints12Bears10
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Bears 18
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 33
No good9 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Bears 24
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Bears 40
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Saints 42
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 22
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Saints18Bears10
Saints19Bears10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Bears 3
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
No good4 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 26
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Bears 48
Saints25Bears10
Saints26Bears10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Bears 4
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Bears 21
The period ended5 plays, from midfield to the Bears 19
4th quarter56 plays
Saints29Bears10
Field goal6 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 5
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Saints 45
Saints35Bears10
Saints36Bears10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Bears 4
Saints36Bears16
Saints36Bears18
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Saints 7
Saints36Bears24
Touchdown10 plays
Saints36Bears25
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -4
Closing total
37
Saints moneyline
+188
Bears moneyline
-213
Bears closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 37; the game landed 61 — over by 24.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 54°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the east; partly cloudy.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Saints 7 days · Bears 14 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Matt Nagy
(13:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 48-J.Gray, Center-48-P.Scales, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CHI-16-P.O'Donnell, Illegal Bat, 0 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY.
2nd · 11:38CHI +8% win prob(11:38) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
2nd · 13:08NO +7% win prob(13:08) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at NO 32 for -8 yards (94-C.Jordan).
Saintscategory by categoryBears
Saints2
Bears0
