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Oakland Raiders 24 at Green Bay Packers 42. Final.
Packers -5.5 ✓O 48 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 7
Green Bay Packers 42, Raiders 24 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 1:55, 2nd and 2, on D.Carr — 17.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Packers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Green Bay Packers 42–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:55, Packers +17.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:55 · 2nd and 2
D.Carr
Packers
(1:55) 4-D.Carr scrambles right end pushed ob at GB 1 for 1 yard (50-B.Martinez). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Carr scrambles right end to GB 1 for 1 yard (50-B.Martinez). FUMBLES (50-B.Martinez), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
17.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
F.MoreauRaidersQ2 11:38(11:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
D.WallerRaidersQ2 2:41(2:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-D.Waller to GB 3 for 48 yards (25-W.Redmond).
12.9pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Raiders155 of 164 plays carry both curves
(1:55) 4-D.Carr scrambles right end pushed ob at GB 1 for 1 yard (50-B.Martinez). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Carr scrambles right end to GB 1 for 1 ya
Swing +17.4 for PackersExpected points +6.05 for PackersThe model had Raiders 9 points higher than the market did.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:55OAK +17% win prob(1:55) 4-D.Carr scrambles right end pushed ob at GB 1 for 1 yard (50-B.Martinez). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Carr scrambles right end to GB 1 for 1 yard (50-B.Martinez). FUMBLES (50-B.Martinez), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
2nd · 2:41GB +13% win prob(2:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-D.Waller to GB 3 for 48 yards (25-W.Redmond).
2nd · 11:38GB +11% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:20GB +10% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 16-J.Kumerow for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 10:20GB +10% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 80-J.Graham to LV 21 for 29 yards (25-E.Harris). Penalty on LV-29-L.Joyner, Defensive Holding, declined.
1st · 0:13GB +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Williams's 2-yard touchdown catch with 3:30 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:25D.Carlson·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+33–0
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 6.7% in week 4.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · −2.3σ from their own normal
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: −3.5 pts in week 6 against +9.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11 pts to 17 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Packers0.0%
off script — stayed blocked · −14.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−2.30× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 14.6 points below their season mean of 14.6% and 2.3 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr scrambles−21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:55) 4-D.Carr scrambles right end pushed ob at GB 1 for 1 yard (50-B.Martinez). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Carr scrambles right end to GB 1 for 1 yard (50-B.Martinez). FUMBLES (50-B.Martinez), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
Q2 1:55 · Raiders · 2nd & goal at GB 2 · gained 1 · -6.05 EP · −21.5% win probability
153 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 86 yards from the LV 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.26
Success rate
48%
Yards
965
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.7363%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.5250%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15+0.0653%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.3662%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.6543%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.5983%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-1.0140%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers3 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Raiders3Packers0
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Packers 26
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
Raiders3Packers6
Raiders3Packers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Raiders 21
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 31
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 42
2nd quarter45 plays
Raiders9Packers7
Raiders10Packers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Packers 10
Raiders10Packers13
Raiders10Packers14
Touchdown17 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Raiders 2
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Drive ended7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Packers 2
Raiders10Packers20
Raiders10Packers21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Raiders 37
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Raiders10Packers27
Raiders10Packers28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Raiders 3
Raiders16Packers28
Raiders17Packers28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Packers 7
Raiders17Packers34
Raiders17Packers35
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Raiders 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Packers 36
4th quarter39 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Packers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 1 to the Packers 6
Intercepted4 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Packers 15
Raiders17Packers41
Raiders17Packers42
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Raiders 42
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Packers 15
Raiders23Packers42
Raiders24Packers42
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Packers 17
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -5.5
Closing total
48
Raiders moneyline
+211
Packers moneyline
-241
Packers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 48; the game landed 66 — over by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Raiders 14 days · Packers 6 days
Coaches
Jon Gruden vs Matt LaFleur
(:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 18-K.Doss pushed ob at GB 28 for 31 yards (39-C.Sullivan).
2nd · 4:14GB +8% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Graham. PENALTY on LV-25-E.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at LV 25 - No Play.
1st · 13:39GB +6% win prob(13:39) 28-J.Jacobs right tackle to GB 29 for 42 yards (25-W.Redmond).
Raiders3
Packers0
