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Philadelphia Eagles 10 at Dallas Cowboys 37. Final.
Cowboys -3 ✓U 50 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 7
Dallas Cowboys 37, Eagles 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:18, 2nd and 10, on D.Goedert — 11.4 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:18 · 2nd and 10
D.Goedert
Cowboys
(13:18) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 43 for 8 yards (54-J.Smith). FUMBLES (54-J.Smith), RECOVERED by DAL-96-M.Collins at PHI 45. 96-M.Collins to PHI 45 for no gain (13-N.Agholor).
Dome
Cowboys closed -3 and covered, winning by 27.
Dallas Cowboys 37–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:18, Cowboys +11.4% win probability on one snap.
11.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.WentzCowboysQ1 9:23(9:23) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 9 for -7 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence], touched at PHI 9, RECOVERED by DAL-99-A.Woods at PHI 14. 99-A.Woods to PHI 14 for no gain (62-J.Kelce).
7.9pts
D.GoedertEaglesQ1 4:44(4:44) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 88-D.Goedert for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 4 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Eagles at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.39 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Eagles158 of 169 plays carry both curves
(13:18) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 43 for 8 yards (54-J.Smith). FUMBLES (54-J.Smith), RECOVERED by DAL-96-M.Collins at PHI 45. 96-M.Collins to PHI 45 for no gain (13-N.Agholor).
Swing +11.4 for CowboysExpected points +4.38 for CowboysModel and market agree here.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:18PHI +11% win prob(13:18) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 43 for 8 yards (54-J.Smith). FUMBLES (54-J.Smith), RECOVERED by DAL-96-M.Collins at PHI 45. 96-M.Collins to PHI 45 for no gain (13-N.Agholor).
1st · 9:23PHI +8% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 9 for -7 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence], touched at PHI 9, RECOVERED by DAL-99-A.Woods at PHI 14. 99-A.Woods to PHI 14 for no gain (62-J.Kelce).
1st · 4:44DAL +7% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 88-D.Goedert for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:17DAL +7% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 10-T.Austin right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:15DAL +5% win prob(11:15) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott ran ob at PHI 42 for 9 yards (57-T.Edwards). Penalty on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Defensive Holding, declined.
1st · 3:55DAL +4% win prob(3:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 18-R.Cobb to DAL 41 for 14 yards (42-A.Sendejo).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Austin's 20-yard rushing touchdown with 10:17 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:17T.Austin·20-yd TD run20-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Cowboys ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.36Eagles: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.14Cowboys: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Eagles: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.33Cowboys: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.32Eagles: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.03Cowboys: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 57 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 66 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Cowboys 6.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, sat 31.1 points above their season number of 35.6% — they went for it by 2.0 times their own 15.2-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.2 points.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.7% in week 6 against 16.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −3.8 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Cowboys16.1%
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.0 pts, 13.2 points below their season mean of -0.8 pts and 2.2 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Adam RedmondCAnthony BrownCBDorance ArmstrongDEJustin HamiltonDTLuke GiffordLBBrandon KnightTDevin SmithWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Xavier Su'a-FiloGCooper RushQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz sacked−9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:23) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 9 for -7 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence], touched at PHI 9, RECOVERED by DAL-99-A.Woods at PHI 14. 99-A.Woods to PHI 14 for no gain (62-J.Kelce).
Q1 9:23 · Eagles · 2nd & 4 at PHI 16 · lost 7 · -5.60 EP · −8.8% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 87 yards from the PHI 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
40%
Yards
685
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.6050%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.6062%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1050%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.4225%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.1036%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.1533%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 35
Eagles0Cowboys6
Eagles0Cowboys7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Eagles 20
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 16
Eagles0Cowboys13
Eagles0Cowboys14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 1
Eagles6Cowboys14
Eagles7Cowboys14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Cowboys 26
Punt11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 35
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Eagles 19
Eagles7Cowboys20
Eagles7Cowboys21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Eagles 1
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 46
Eagles7Cowboys24
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Eagles 8
Punt6 plays
Eagles7Cowboys27
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Eagles 45
3rd quarter35 plays
Drive ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 42
Eagles10Cowboys27
Field goal15 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Cowboys 9
The period ended12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 48
4th quarter40 plays
Eagles10Cowboys30
Field goal6 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Eagles 9
Intercepted4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 39
Intercepted2 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Eagles 37
Fumble lost2 plays
Eagles10Cowboys36
Eagles10Cowboys37
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 8
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 19
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 44
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -3
Closing total
50
Eagles moneyline
+148
Cowboys moneyline
-165
Cowboys closed -3 and covered, winning by 27.
Total closed 50; the game landed 47 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Eagles 7 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Jason Garrett
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 1:41PHI +4% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at PHI 41 for -6 yards (96-D.Barnett).
2nd · 9:30PHI +4% win prob(9:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DAL-77-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 24 - No Play. Penalty on DAL-19-A.Cooper, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Eaglescategory by categoryCowboys
Eagles0
Cowboys6
