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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:36 AM ET · 16 to play
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2019 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2019 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2019 Week 7
It turned at Q3 1:29, 1st and 10, on A.Peterson — 14.8 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:29 · 1st and 10
A.Peterson
49ers
(1:29) 26-A.Peterson right tackle to SF 29 for no gain (56-K.Alexander). FUMBLES (56-K.Alexander), RECOVERED by SF-77-J.Taylor at SF 31. 77-J.Taylor to SF 41 for 10 yards (13-K.Harmon).
San Francisco 49ers 9–0. Biggest swing: Q3 1:29, 49ers +14.8% win probability on one snap.
14.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
49ers won this one — -0.07 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.28 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — -0.21 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.42 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Commanders at 3 of 9 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 37% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 23.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(1:29) 26-A.Peterson right tackle to SF 29 for no gain (56-K.Alexander). FUMBLES (56-K.Alexander), RECOVERED by SF-77-J.Taylor at SF 31. 77-J.Taylor to SF 41 for 10 yards (13-K.Harmon).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
R.Gould's 28-yard field goal with 5:32 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
R.Gould28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap G.SanbornLead never changed again+33–0R.Gould22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap G.Sanborn+36–0R.Gould29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap G.Sanborn+39–03 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryCommanders
49ers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — total yards.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 62 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Commanders’s 41 at 37%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Commanders 1.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's pass rate over expected, −26.2 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 7.8 points clear of the next team along.
41 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
WAS's early-down pass rate, 25.8%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 6.0 points clear of the next team along.
31 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
SF's pass rate over expected, −18.4 pts, is past their previous low of −12.1 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
SF's early-down pass rate, 31.8%, is past their previous low of 36.5% in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-18.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.5 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.83× that swing) · 62 snaps
Commanders-26.2 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −21.4 vs their -4.7 pts, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−2.69× that swing) · 41 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 85%
Tendencies room →49ers31.8%leaned — ran early · −15.2 vs their 47.0%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 44 early downs
Commanders25.8%off script — ran early · −27.2 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−2.17× that swing) · 31 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -68% to 136%
Fourth Down room →49ers40.0%right on their number · +9.1 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±22.8 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 30%
Tendencies room →49ers20.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 15 dropbacks
Commanders12.0%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
WAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -26.2 pts, 21.4 points below their season mean of -4.7 pts and 2.7 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Washington Commanders
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:29) 26-A.Peterson right tackle to SF 29 for no gain (56-K.Alexander). FUMBLES (56-K.Alexander), RECOVERED by SF-77-J.Taylor at SF 31. 77-J.Taylor to SF 41 for 10 yards (13-K.Harmon).
Q3 1:29 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at SF 29 · lost 2 · -6.12 EP · −22.6% win probability
128 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 142 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 142 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
3 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 67 yards from the SF 23 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
142 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
142 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers3
Commanders049ers6Commanders049ers9Commanders0Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Commanders, every play.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2019_07_SF_WAS
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -10, won by 9 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 39; the game landed 9 — under by 30.0.
Conditions and crew
