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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 9 at New Orleans Saints 31. Final.
Saints -12.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
New Orleans Saints 31, Cardinals 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:36, 2nd and 8, on C.Clay — 12.1 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:36 · 2nd and 8
C.Clay
Cardinals
(8:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 85-C.Clay to NO 14 for 47 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 31, YAC 16
Dome
Saints closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 22.
New Orleans Saints 31–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:36, Cardinals +12.1% win probability on one snap.
12.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
W.LutzCardinalsQ1 9:00(9:00) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. INJURY UPDATE: ARI #54 Marsh, concussion protocol.
8.3pts
T.HillSaintsQ1 2:43(2:43) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 7-T.Hill pushed ob at ARI 24 for 22 yards (35-D.Thompson). Pass 5, YAC 17
10.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Saints won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Cardinals at 2 of 12 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 3 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.49 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Cardinals155 of 163 plays carry both curves
(8:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 85-C.Clay to NO 14 for 47 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 31, YAC 16
Swing −12.1 for SaintsExpected points −3.82 for SaintsThe model had Cardinals 28 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:36NO +12% win prob(8:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 85-C.Clay to NO 14 for 47 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 31, YAC 16
1st · 2:43NO +11% win prob(2:43) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 7-T.Hill pushed ob at ARI 24 for 22 yards (35-D.Thompson). Pass 5, YAC 17
1st · 9:00ARI +8% win prob(9:00) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. INJURY UPDATE: ARI #54 Marsh, concussion protocol.
2nd · 0:06ARI +7% win prob(:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 85-D.Arnold for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NO-72-T.Armstead, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20 - No Play.
1st · 2:49ARI +6% win prob(2:49) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep left to 89-J.Hill.
3rd · 9:05ARI +6% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 42-Z.Line INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Peterson [98-C.Peters] at ARI 21. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 21 for no gain.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
L.Murray's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 9:03 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:46Z.Gonzalez·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+33–0
2nd14:17W.Lutz·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–3
2nd9:03L.Murray·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–10
2nd5:23Z.Gonzalez·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+36–10
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.33Cardinals: −0.33 expected points added per play
+0.23Saints: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Cardinals: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.32Saints: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.49Cardinals: −0.49 expected points added per play
+0.08Saints: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 49 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Saints’s 70 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, Saints 6.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
ARI's pass rate over expected, +11.0 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 7.
49 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 35.7% in week 7 against 71.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 27.7% in week 7 against 9.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Saints10.5%
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.0 pts, 10.6 points above their season mean of 0.5 pts and 1.2 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Patrick RobinsonCBCarl GrandersonDENick EastonGAlvin KamaraRBEthan GreenidgeTJared CookTETre'Quan SmithWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 85-C.Clay to NO 14 for 47 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 31, YAC 16
Q1 8:36 · Cardinals · 2nd & 8 at ARI 39 · gained 47 · +3.82 EP · +11.7% win probability
153 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 75 yards from the NO 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
39%
Yards
747
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.0070%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.3350%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.2774%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR18-0.4089%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.1450%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0775%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.8460%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
No good13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Cardinals 29
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.2 seconds
Cardinals3Saints0
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Saints 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Cardinals 13
2nd quarter51 plays
Cardinals3Saints3
Field goal4 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 7
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 32
Cardinals3Saints9
Cardinals3Saints10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Cardinals 8
Cardinals6Saints10
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Saints 13
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 46
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Cardinals 28
The period ended10 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Cardinals 20
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 37
Intercepted9 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Cardinals 46
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Cardinals 30
Cardinals6Saints16
Cardinals6Saints17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 15
Cardinals9Saints17
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Saints 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Cardinals 46
4th quarter37 plays
Cardinals9Saints23
Cardinals9Saints24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 44 to the Cardinals 5
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 26
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Saints 37
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Saints 27
Cardinals9Saints30
Cardinals9Saints31
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Cardinals 9
Punt6 plays
Drive ended2 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to the Cardinals 47
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
