2019 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2019 · Levi's Stadium

Carolina Panthers

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -4.5 ✓O 41 ✓19 mph wind49ers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 38.

San Francisco 49ers 51–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:03, CAR +7% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:03CAR — SF SF ball · 1st & 10SF 82%

(7:03) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 59-L.Kuechly at SF 42. 59-L.Kuechly to SF 41 for 1 yard (85-G.Kittle).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:03CAR +7% win prob(7:03) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 59-L.Kuechly at SF 42. 59-L.Kuechly to SF 41 for 1 yard (85-G.Kittle).
Q1 · 1:15SF +6% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman up the middle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 13:52CAR +5% win prob(13:52) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left intended for 10-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 41-E.Moseley at CAR 30. 41-E.Moseley to CAR 27 for 3 yards (10-C.Samuel).
Q1 · 2:32SF +5% win prob(2:32) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 85-G.Kittle to CAR 33 for 29 yards (33-T.Boston). PENALTY on CAR-33-T.Boston, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 33. Caught at SF 37. 4-yac

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	49ers
Offensive plays	64	61
Total yards	232	391 (edge)
Yards per play	3.6	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.49	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	33%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.71	0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.20 (edge)
Third downs	2/13	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	7	3 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.49.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	13	75	5:46	Touchdown
2	CAR	CAR 23	5	0	2:11	Punt
3	SF	SF 38	1	0	0:04	Interception
4	CAR	SF 41	6	18	2:36	Turnover on downs
5	SF	SF 25	8	70	3:14	Touchdown
6	CAR	CAR 10	5	15	2:23	Interception
7	SF	CAR 27	4	27	1:03	Touchdown
8	CAR	SF 47	5	3	3:04	Punt
9	SF	SF 33	8	23	3:15	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 7	7	26	2:36	Punt
11	SF	SF 37	5	58	1:55	Touchdown
12	CAR	CAR 25	9	14	1:03	Punt
13	SF	SF 25	2	1	0:50	End of half
14	CAR	CAR 25	7	17	1:36	Punt
15	SF	SF 2	2	-2	0:41	Turnover on downs
16	CAR	CAR 49	5	53	1:28	Touchdown
17	SF	SF 25	10	75	4:00	Touchdown
18	CAR	CAR 18	6	4	1:19	Punt
19	SF	CAR 45	4	-3	2:10	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 2	5	9	1:56	Interception
21	SF	CAR 10	4	5	1:21	Touchdown
22	CAR	CAR 25	3	37	0:29	Interception
23	SF	CAR 9	4	7	2:08	Turnover on downs
24	CAR	CAR 10	5	-1	0:49	Punt
25	SF	SF 47	4	2	2:18	Punt
26	CAR	CAR 18	9	28	3:21	Turnover on downs
27	SF	CAR 41	2	41	0:08	Touchdown
28	SF	CAR 32	6	9	2:08	Turnover on downs
29	SF	CAR 41	5	12	4:08	End of game

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -4.5
Closing total: 41
CAR moneyline: +184
SF moneyline: -208

49ers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 38.

Total closed 41; the game landed 64 — over by 23.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: CAR 14 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Kyle Shanahan

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.