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Carolina Panthers 13 at San Francisco 49ers 51. Final.
49ers -4.5 ✓O 41 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
San Francisco 49ers 51, Panthers 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 7:03, 1st and 10, on L.Kuechly — 7.2 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:03 · 1st and 10
L.Kuechly
Panthers
(7:03) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 59-L.Kuechly at SF 42. 59-L.Kuechly to SF 41 for 1 yard (85-G.Kittle).
17.5 mph wind
49ers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 38.
San Francisco 49ers 51–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:03, Panthers +7.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
7.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.Coleman49ersQ1 1:15(1:15) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman up the middle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.7pts
E.Moseley49ersQ2 13:52(13:52) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left intended for 10-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 41-E.Moseley at CAR 30. 41-E.Moseley to CAR 27 for 3 yards (10-C.Samuel).
5.4pts
What separated them
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.49 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.71 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 13 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 5 touchdowns on 8 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Panthers170 of 176 plays carry both curves
(7:03) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 59-L.Kuechly at SF 42. 59-L.Kuechly to SF 41 for 1 yard (85-G.Kittle).
Swing −7.2 for 49ersExpected points −5.42 for 49ersThe model had Panthers 4 points higher than the market did.play 20
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:03CAR +7% win prob(7:03) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 59-L.Kuechly at SF 42. 59-L.Kuechly to SF 41 for 1 yard (85-G.Kittle).
1st · 1:15SF +6% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman up the middle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:52CAR +5% win prob(13:52) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left intended for 10-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 41-E.Moseley at CAR 30. 41-E.Moseley to CAR 27 for 3 yards (10-C.Samuel).
1st · 2:32SF +5% win prob(2:32) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 85-G.Kittle to CAR 33 for 29 yards (33-T.Boston). PENALTY on CAR-33-T.Boston, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 33. Caught at SF 37. 4-yac
1st · 10:33SF +5% win prob(10:33) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 22-M.Breida to CAR 2 for 15 yards (25-E.Reid). Caught at CAR 20. 18-yac
1st · 11:49SF +4% win prob(11:49) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman left end to CAR 19 for 22 yards (33-T.Boston).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
E.Sanders's 4-yard touchdown catch with 9:18 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:18E.Sanders·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom J.Garoppolofrom J.GaroppoloLead never changed again+70–7
1st4:28J.Slye·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+33–7
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.71 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.49Panthers: −0.49 expected points added per play
+0.1949ers: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.71Panthers: −0.71 expected points added per play
+0.1649ers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.2049ers: +0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 64 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against 49ers’s 61 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 1, 49ers 8.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.49.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
49ers20.5%
inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's sack or hit rate, 20.5% against a season mean of 15.5% — and SF swings 5.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
46 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
73Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%68 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%68 snaps
7Kyle AllenQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
12D.J. MooreWR · Full-time93%63 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Full-time88%60 snaps
65Dennis DaleyT · Full-time88%60 snaps
61Matt ParadisC · Heavy rotation79%54 snaps
70Trai TurnerG · Heavy rotation79%54 snaps
88Greg OlsenTE · Heavy rotation78%53 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation78%53 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:03) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 59-L.Kuechly at SF 42. 59-L.Kuechly to SF 41 for 1 yard (85-G.Kittle).
Q1 7:03 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 38 · gained nothing · -5.42 EP · −11.7% win probability
168 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
36%
Yards
620
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.6981%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.4048%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.0437%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.0142%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
49ers0 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Panthers049ers6
Panthers049ers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Panthers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Panthers 30
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Panthers349ers7
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 41 to the 49ers 21
Panthers349ers13
Panthers349ers14
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Panthers 9
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 11
2nd quarter50 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 25
Panthers349ers20
Panthers349ers21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 10
Punt7 plays
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Panthers 43
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 7 to the Panthers 42
Panthers349ers27
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Panthers 48
Punt11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the 49ers 43
The period ended3 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 27
3rd quarter50 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 42
Panthers549ers27
Drive ended2 plays, from the 49ers 2 to the 49ers 5
Panthers1149ers27
Panthers1349ers27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the 49ers 40
Panthers1349ers33
Panthers1349ers34
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Panthers 20
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Panthers 40
Intercepted5 plays, from the Panthers 2 to the Panthers 13
Panthers1349ers40
Panthers1349ers41
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 1
Intercepted3 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the 49ers 38
4th quarter37 plays
Panthers1349ers44
Field goal4 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Panthers 2
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 47 to midfield
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the 49ers 45
Panthers1349ers50
Panthers1349ers51
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 41
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Panthers 29
The period ended1 play
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -4.5
Closing total
41
Panthers moneyline
+184
49ers moneyline
-208
49ers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 38.
Total closed 41; the game landed 64 — over by 23.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 68°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the north; clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Panthers 14 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Kyle Shanahan
NoteWind at 17.5 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 5:10CAR +4% win prob(5:10) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at SF 23 for -2 yards (91-A.Armstead).
1st · 3:52SF +4% win prob(3:52) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 36 for 12 yards (54-S.Thompson; 25-E.Reid). Caught at SF 20. 16-yac
