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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 10 at Los Angeles Rams 24. Final.
Rams -12 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
Los Angeles Rams 24, Bengals 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:11, 1st and 10, on C.Kupp — 8.1 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:11 · 1st and 10
C.Kupp
Rams
(4:11) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Kupp scores on the flea flicker play
Rams closed -12 and covered, winning by 14.
Los Angeles Rams 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 4:11, Rams +8.1% win probability on one snap.
8.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
R.WoodsRamsQ1 12:46(12:46) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods pushed ob at LA 41 for 31 yards (30-J.Bates III).
5.1pts
T.BoydBengalsQ1 2:38(2:38) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd to LA 13 for 22 yards (23-N.Robey).
5.6pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.76 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.38 expected points per snap, against Bengals at +0.04 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Bengals at 6 of 18 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Bengals at 8 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Bengals171 of 183 plays carry both curves
(4:11) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Kupp scores on the flea flicker play
Swing +8.1 for RamsExpected points +5.73 for RamsThe model had Bengals 20 points higher than the market did.play 65
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:11LA +8% win prob(4:11) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Kupp scores on the flea flicker play
1st · 2:38LA +6% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd to LA 13 for 22 yards (23-N.Robey).
1st · 12:46LA +5% win prob(12:46) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods pushed ob at LA 41 for 31 yards (30-J.Bates III).
1st · 9:43LA +5% win prob(9:43) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-C.Kupp to CIN 17 for 25 yards (29-T.McRae).
2nd · 11:35LA +5% win prob(11:35) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-C.Kupp to CIN 31 for 23 yards (30-J.Bates III).
2nd · 4:45LA +5% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 81-G.Everett to LA 35 for 11 yards (23-B.Webb).
2nd · 13:47
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Kupp's 65-yard touchdown catch with 4:11 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st6:44G.Zuerlein·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
2nd15:00R.Bullock·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–3
Rams ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.76 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Bengals: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.38Rams: +0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Bengals: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.76Rams: +0.76 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Bengals: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.07Rams: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 76 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Rams’s 57 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Rams 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.2% in week 7 against 9.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Rams9.1%
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 50.0% against a season mean of 32.2% — and CIN swings 25.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:11) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Kupp scores on the flea flicker play
Q2 4:11 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 35 · gained 65 · +5.73 EP · +14.6% win probability
169 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 92 yards from the LA 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
36%
Yards
871
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.3553%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2077%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0356%
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR7-1.30100%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.6620%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to midfield
Bengals0Rams3
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Bengals 5
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Rams 8
2nd quarter57 plays
Bengals3Rams3
Field goal1 play
Bengals3Rams9
Bengals3Rams10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Bengals 31
Bengals9Rams10
Bengals10Rams10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Rams 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
Bengals10Rams16
Bengals10Rams17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 35
Punt12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Rams 30
Punt12 plays, from the Rams 2 to the Rams 38
3rd quarter37 plays
Bengals10Rams23
Bengals10Rams24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bengals 3
Punt13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Rams 36
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 9 to midfield
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 13 to the Bengals 21
4th quarter55 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Bengals 23
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 31
Turnover on downs18 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Rams 6
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 3 to the Rams 18
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Rams 4
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
