2019 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2019 · Gillette Stadium
Cleveland Browns
13
New England PatriotsWinner
27
New England Patriots 27–13. Biggest swing: Q1 5:55, CLE +10% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(5:55) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right guard to CLE 22 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at CLE 26. 54-D.Hightower for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 5:55CLE +10% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right guard to CLE 22 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at CLE 26. 54-D.Hightower for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 11:04NE +8% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-P.Dorsett pushed ob at CLE 36 for 33 yards (26-G.Williams).
- Q1 · 13:42CLE +7% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right. thrown away from outside the pocket
- Q1 · 13:36NE +6% win prob(13:36) 7-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to CLE 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Browns | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 58 | 66 |
| Total yards | 310 | 318 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.3 (edge) | 4.8 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.27 | -0.03 (edge) |
| Success rate | 40% (edge) | 36% |
| Dropback rate | 64% | 59% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.21 | 0.13 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.38 | -0.27 (edge) |
| Third downs | 3/12 | 5/16 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 9 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 16 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 5 | 3 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 (edge) |
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | NE 30 | 6 | 12 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 2 | CLE | CLE 20 | 4 | 7 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 3 | NE | NE 27 | 12 | 71 | 5:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | CLE | CLE 20 | 3 | 3 | 0:50 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 5 | CLE | CLE 40 | 2 | 44 | 0:15 | Fumble | |
| 6 | NE | NE 4 | 7 | 17 | 2:54 | Punt | |
| 7 | CLE | CLE 21 | 1 | 0 | 0:05 | Interception | |
| 8 | NE | CLE 11 | 3 | 11 | 0:44 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | CLE | CLE 32 | 7 | 32 | 3:53 | Punt | |
| 10 | NE | NE 13 | 4 | 0 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 11 | CLE | CLE 46 | 7 | 54 | 3:28 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | NE | NE 25 | 14 | 49 | 5:25 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | CLE | CLE 16 | 7 | 22 | 2:19 | End of half | |
| 14 | CLE | CLE 25 | 13 | 55 | 6:23 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | NE | NE 16 | 9 | 84 | 2:26 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | CLE | CLE 25 | 5 | 0 | 1:12 | Punt | |
| 17 | NE | NE 27 | 6 | 9 | 2:44 | Punt | |
| 18 | CLE | CLE 13 | 7 | 37 | 4:05 | Punt | |
| 19 | NE | NE 27 | 11 | 62 | 5:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | CLE | CLE 25 | 5 | 4 | 1:36 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | NE | CLE 14 | 4 | -2 | 2:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | CLE | CLE 24 | 7 | 52 | 1:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | NE | CLE 46 | 5 | 5 | 1:27 | Punt | |
| 24 | CLE | CLE 20 | 3 | 0 | 1:06 | End of game |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 84 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -9.5
- Closing total
- 43
- CLE moneyline
- +309
- NE moneyline
- -367
Patriots closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 43; the game landed 40 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Gillette Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 49°F, wind 11 mph
- Referee
- Tony Corrente
- Rest
- CLE 14 days · NE 6 days
- Coaches
- Freddie Kitchens vs Bill Belichick