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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 13 at New England Patriots 27. Final.
Patriots -9.5 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
New England Patriots 27, Browns 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:55, 2nd and 7, on N.Chubb — 9.7 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:55 · 2nd and 7
N.Chubb
Patriots
(5:55) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right guard to CLE 22 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at CLE 26. 54-D.Hightower for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16 mph wind
Patriots closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.
New England Patriots 27–13. Biggest swing: Q1 5:55, Patriots +9.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
9.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.BradyBrownsQ1 13:42(13:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right. thrown away from outside the pocket
7.5pts
P.DorsettPatriotsQ1 11:04(11:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-P.Dorsett pushed ob at CLE 36 for 33 yards (26-G.Williams).
7.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 2 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Browns at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Patriots at 6 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Browns171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(5:55) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right guard to CLE 22 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at CLE 26. 54-D.Hightower for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +9.7 for PatriotsExpected points +6.69 for PatriotsThe model had Browns 20 points higher than the market did.play 27
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:55CLE +10% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right guard to CLE 22 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at CLE 26. 54-D.Hightower for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:04NE +8% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-P.Dorsett pushed ob at CLE 36 for 33 yards (26-G.Williams).
1st · 13:42CLE +7% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right. thrown away from outside the pocket
1st · 13:36NE +6% win prob(13:36) 7-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to CLE 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
3rd · 8:26NE +6% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White to CLE 25 for 59 yards (31-J.Burris).
1st · 9:12NE +6% win prob(9:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman to CLE 23 for 10 yards (51-M.Wilson, 53-J.Schobert).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Nugent's 20-yard field goal with 6:38 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:38M.Nugent·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+30–3
4th7:46M.Nugent·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+310–27
4th2:38A.Seibert·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+313–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryPatriots
Browns3–6Patriots
310Total yards318
5.3Yards per play4.8
40%Success rate36%
25%Third-down rate31%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays6
15First downs16
5Sacks taken3
3Turnovers0
The read
Patriots ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.27Browns: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.03Patriots: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Browns: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.13Patriots: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.38Browns: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.27Patriots: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 58 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Patriots’s 66 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Patriots 6.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Patriots13.5%
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NE's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3% against a season mean of 16.8% — and NE swings 22.5 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Chubb right−18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:55) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right guard to CLE 22 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at CLE 26. 54-D.Hightower for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:55 · Browns · 2nd & 7 at CLE 23 · gained nothing · -6.69 EP · −18.2% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 84 yards from the NE 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
38%
Yards
628
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.5367%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.3386%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.2610%
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR12-0.3983%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.7050%
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7-0.4443%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter49 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 42
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Browns0Patriots3
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Browns 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Browns0Patriots9
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 23
Browns0Patriots10
Fumble lost2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 4 to the Patriots 21
Intercepted1 play
Browns0Patriots16
Browns0Patriots17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 8
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Patriots 40
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Patriots 17
Browns6Patriots17
Browns7Patriots17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Patriots 21
No good17 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Browns 11
The period ended10 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Browns 39
3rd quarter39 plays
Browns10Patriots17
Field goal13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Patriots 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Browns10Patriots23
Browns10Patriots24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Browns 14
Punt6 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Patriots 45
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Browns 33
4th quarter49 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 40
Browns10Patriots27
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Browns 11
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 34
No good4 plays
Browns13Patriots27
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Patriots 24
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Browns 39
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -9.5
Closing total
43
Browns moneyline
+309
Patriots moneyline
-367
Patriots closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 43; the game landed 40 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 50°F at kickoff; windy at 16 mph out of the south-east; 0.40 in of precipitation; moderate rain.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Browns 14 days · Patriots 6 days
Coaches
Freddie Kitchens vs Bill Belichick
NoteWind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 12:36
NE +5% win prob
(12:36) 7-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to NE 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
1st · 2:36CLE +4% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Guy at CLE 16. 93-L.Guy to CLE 11 for 5 yards (75-J.Bitonio). shovel pass
