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2019 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
BroncosDenver13
BY 2final margin
ColtsIndianapolis15
Denver Broncos 13 at Indianapolis Colts 15. Final.
Colts -6 no coverU 41 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
Indianapolis Colts 15, Broncos 13 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:26, 4th and 9, on A.Vinatieri — 28.5 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:26 · 4th and 9
A.Vinatieri
Colts
(:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
28.5
Colts closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Indianapolis Colts 15–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:26, Colts +28.5% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.BrissettBroncosQ4 7:48(7:48) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at IND 39 for -4 yards (95-D.Wolfe). FUMBLES (95-D.Wolfe), RECOVERED by DEN-59-M.Reed at IND 48. 59-M.Reed to IND 48 for no gain (7-J.Brissett). Credit 0 sack yards for DEN #95.
17.6pts
N.HinesColtsQ4 1:35(1:35) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 21-N.Hines pushed ob at DEN 49 for 5 yards (45-A.Johnson). PENALTY on DEN-45-A.Johnson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 49.
19.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Colts won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts won this one — 4 of 12 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 12 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Colts at 1 giveaway.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Broncos169 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Swing +28.5 for ColtsExpected points +1.05 for ColtsThe model had Broncos 5 points higher than the market did.play 177
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:26IND +29% win prob(:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
4th · 1:35IND +19% win prob(1:35) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 21-N.Hines pushed ob at DEN 49 for 5 yards (45-A.Johnson). PENALTY on DEN-45-A.Johnson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 49.
4th · 7:48DEN +18% win prob(7:48) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at IND 39 for -4 yards (95-D.Wolfe). FUMBLES (95-D.Wolfe), RECOVERED by DEN-59-M.Reed at IND 48. 59-M.Reed to IND 48 for no gain (7-J.Brissett). Credit 0 sack yards for DEN #95.
4th · 0:17DEN +14% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 24 for -1 yards (52-B.Banogu). FUMBLES (52-B.Banogu) [52-B.Banogu], recovered by DEN-28-R.Freeman at DEN 24.
4th · 1:55DEN +12% win prob(1:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 32 yards to IND 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
4th · 12:30DEN +12% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at IND 3 for -6 yards (95-D.Wolfe).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Vinatieri's 51-yard field goal with 0:26 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd13:00B.McManus·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+33–0
2nd5:37B.McManus·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+36–0
2nd0:06A.Vinatieri·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+36–3
3rd6:09A.Vinatieri·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+313–6
3rd2:32M.Mack·10-yd TD run10-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+613–12
4th0:26A.Vinatieri·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+313–15
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryColts
Broncos2–5Colts
279Total yards318
4.4Yards per play5.4
35%Success rate44%
17%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays6
15First downs16
3Sacks taken4
0Turnovers1
The read
Colts ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Broncos: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.11Colts: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Broncos: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.12Colts: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Broncos: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 63 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Colts’s 59 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Colts 1.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 50.0% in week 7 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.5 points.
IND's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.2 pts in week 7 against −11.8 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +8.2 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Colts11.1%
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.2%, 8.2 points above their season mean of 13.0% and 1.0 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pierre DesirCBQuincy WilsonCBTyquan LewisDTCarl DavisNTLe'Raven ClarkOGJonathan WilliamsRBDeon CainWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Shakial TaylorDBJosh AndrewsOGBrian HoyerQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Vinatieri+26% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 0:26 · Colts · 4th & 9 at DEN 33 · gained nothing · +1.05 EP · +26.1% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 86 yards from the DEN 11 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
39%
Yards
597
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1460%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.3166%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0118%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.0238%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0573%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.0330%
Colts0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
No good8 plays, from the Colts 49 to the Broncos 27
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 46
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Colts 45
The period ended12 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Colts 21
2nd quarter52 plays
Broncos3Colts0
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Colts 3
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 31
Broncos6Colts0
Field goal14 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Colts 9
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Broncos 40
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 42
Broncos6Colts3
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Broncos 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Broncos12Colts3
Broncos13Colts3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Colts 4
Broncos13Colts6
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Broncos 27
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Broncos13Colts12
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Broncos 10
The period ended9 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Colts 38
4th quarter51 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 41 to the Colts 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 4 to the Colts 9
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Broncos 47
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 48 to the Colts 46
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 8 to the Colts 18
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Colts 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Broncos13Colts15
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 11 to the Broncos 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFour
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -6
Closing total
41
Broncos moneyline
+209
Colts moneyline
-238
Colts closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41; the game landed 28 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Broncos 10 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Vic Fangio vs Frank Reich
4th · 1:48IND +10% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton ran ob at IND 46 for 35 yards (25-C.Harris). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 15:00IND +9% win prob(15:00) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. PENALTY on IND-96-D.Autry, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at IND 28 - No Play.
