2019 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Denver Broncos
13
Indianapolis ColtsWinner
15
Indianapolis Colts 15–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:26, IND +29% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:26IND +29% win prob(:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
- Q4 · 1:35IND +19% win prob(1:35) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 21-N.Hines pushed ob at DEN 49 for 5 yards (45-A.Johnson). PENALTY on DEN-45-A.Johnson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 49.
- Q4 · 7:48DEN +18% win prob(7:48) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at IND 39 for -4 yards (95-D.Wolfe). FUMBLES (95-D.Wolfe), RECOVERED by DEN-59-M.Reed at IND 48. 59-M.Reed to IND 48 for no gain (7-J.Brissett). Credit 0 sack yards for DEN #95.
- Q4 · 0:17DEN +14% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 24 for -1 yards (52-B.Banogu). FUMBLES (52-B.Banogu) [52-B.Banogu], recovered by DEN-28-R.Freeman at DEN 24.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Broncos | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 63 | 59 |
| Total yards | 279 | 318 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.4 | 5.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.13 | -0.11 (edge) |
| Success rate | 35% | 44% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 57% | 56% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.14 | -0.12 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.12 | -0.09 (edge) |
| Third downs | 2/12 | 4/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 16 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | IND 49 | 8 | 24 | 3:39 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | DEN | DEN 35 | 4 | 6 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 3 | IND | IND 9 | 6 | 31 | 3:29 | Punt | |
| 4 | DEN | DEN 11 | 17 | 68 | 7:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 5 | 1:45 | Punt | |
| 6 | DEN | DEN 16 | 13 | 73 | 5:38 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | IND | IND 30 | 8 | 27 | 3:18 | Punt | |
| 8 | DEN | DEN 22 | 6 | 19 | 1:18 | Punt | |
| 9 | IND | IND 20 | 6 | 43 | 0:55 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | DEN | — | 1 | 0 | 0:02 | End of half | |
| 11 | DEN | DEN 25 | 7 | 51 | 3:22 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | IND | IND 25 | 13 | 58 | 5:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 7 | 0:55 | Punt | |
| 14 | IND | IND 32 | 7 | 58 | 2:44 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | DEN | DEN 24 | 8 | 30 | 3:36 | Punt | |
| 16 | IND | IND 4 | 4 | -1 | 2:19 | Punt | |
| 17 | DEN | DEN 45 | 4 | 9 | 1:59 | Punt | |
| 18 | IND | IND 28 | 4 | 25 | 1:54 | Fumble | |
| 19 | DEN | IND 48 | 4 | -2 | 1:47 | Punt | |
| 20 | IND | IND 8 | 6 | 7 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 21 | DEN | DEN 38 | 6 | 19 | 1:49 | Punt | |
| 22 | IND | IND 11 | 7 | 41 | 1:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | DEN | DEN 25 | 3 | -1 | 0:22 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 73 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- IND -6
- Closing total
- 41
- DEN moneyline
- +209
- IND moneyline
- -238
Colts closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41; the game landed 28 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lucas Oil Stadium
- Roof / surface
- open · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- —
- Referee
- Walt Anderson
- Rest
- DEN 10 days · IND 7 days
- Coaches
- Vic Fangio vs Frank Reich