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Green Bay Packers 31 at Kansas City Chiefs 24. Final.
Packers -5 ✓O 48 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
Green Bay Packers 31, Chiefs 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 8:14, 2nd and 2, on A.Jones — 21.9 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:14 · 2nd and 2
A.Jones
Packers
(8:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.9
Packers closed -5 and covered, winning by 7.
Green Bay Packers 31–24. Biggest swing: Q4 8:14, Packers +21.9% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.RodgersChiefsQ3 2:15(2:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at KC 17 for -10 yards (90-E.Ogbah).
9.1pts
L.McCoyPackersQ3 1:24(1:24) 25-L.McCoy up the middle to KC 26 for 1 yard (95-T.Lancaster). FUMBLES (95-T.Lancaster), RECOVERED by GB-95-T.Lancaster at KC 27.
14.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Chiefs at +0.09 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 1 giveaway.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 8 of 12 on third down, against Chiefs at 6 of 11 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Packers157 of 167 plays carry both curves
(8:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −21.9 for ChiefsExpected points −5.77 for ChiefsThe model had Chiefs 17 points higher than the market did.play 143
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:14KC +22% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:24GB +15% win prob(1:24) 25-L.McCoy up the middle to KC 26 for 1 yard (95-T.Lancaster). FUMBLES (95-T.Lancaster), RECOVERED by GB-95-T.Lancaster at KC 27.
3rd · 2:15GB +9% win prob(2:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at KC 17 for -10 yards (90-E.Ogbah).
4th · 9:09KC +8% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass incomplete short middle to 87-T.Kelce. PENALTY on GB-38-T.Williams, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at GB 8 - No Play.
2nd · 6:21KC +8% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:05KC +8% win prob(14:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-E.Ogbah].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Jones's 67-yard touchdown catch with 8:14 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th8:14A.Jones·67-yd TD catch67-yard touchdown catchfrom A.Rodgersfrom A.RodgersLead never changed again+731–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryChiefs
Packers6–1Chiefs
377Total yards337
6.2Yards per play5.8
51%Success rate47%
67%Third-down rate55%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays5
20First downs20
5Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Packers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Packers: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.09Chiefs: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Packers: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.18Chiefs: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Packers: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.10Chiefs: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 61 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 58 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Chiefs 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 7 against 17.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Chiefs29.3%
leaned — got home · +13.9 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 18.0 points below their season mean of 18.0% and 1.7 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Billy TurnerOG · Every snap100%67 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%67 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
69David BakhtiariT · Full-time96%64 snaps
75Bryan BulagaOT · Full-time81%54 snaps
13Allen LazardWR · Heavy rotation67%45 snaps
89Marcedes LewisTE · Heavy rotation63%42 snaps
81Geronimo AllisonWR · Heavy rotation63%42 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation63%42 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation61%41 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 8:14 · Packers · 2nd & 2 at GB 33 · gained 67 · +5.77 EP · +33.2% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 89 yards from the KC 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
45%
Yards
711
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.0665%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.5674%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.3077%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2077%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0217%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.0340%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Packers3 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Packers6Chiefs0
Packers7Chiefs0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Chiefs 4
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 34
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Packers 22
No good4 plays
Packers13Chiefs0
Packers14Chiefs0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Chiefs 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Chiefs 30
2nd quarter50 plays
Packers14Chiefs6
Packers14Chiefs7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 48 to the Packers 29
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerOnePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.6 seconds
Packers14Chiefs13
Packers14Chiefs14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Packers 30
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 46
Packers14Chiefs17
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Packers 10
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 44
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Packers 47
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Packers17Chiefs17
Field goal17 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Chiefs 6
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter44 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldThree backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Packers23Chiefs17
Packers24Chiefs17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Chiefs 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Packers24Chiefs23
Packers24Chiefs24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Packers 3
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Packers30Chiefs24
Packers31Chiefs24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 33
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Chiefs 40
The period ended15 plays, from the Packers 2 to the Packers 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -5
Closing total
48
Packers moneyline
-230
Chiefs moneyline
+202
Packers closed -5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 48; the game landed 55 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Packers 7 days · Chiefs 10 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Andy Reid
1st · 10:24
KC +8% win prob
(10:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 16-J.Kumerow to KC 11 for 34 yards (49-D.Sorensen) [90-E.Ogbah]. Kansas City challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
2nd · 11:04KC +7% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-R.Gary].
