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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Chargers 17 at Chicago Bears 16. Final.
Bears -3.5 upsetU 41 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
Los Angeles Chargers 17, Bears 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 2nd and 11, on Eddy Pineiro — 69.3 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Bears closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Chargers 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Chargers +69.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 2nd and 11
Eddy Pineiro
Chargers
(:04) 15-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
69.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Casey HaywardChargersQ4 13:07(13:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right intended for 80-T.Burton INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Hayward at LAC 43. 26-C.Hayward pushed ob at CHI 20 for 37 yards (65-C.Whitehair).
18.5pts
Mitchell TrubiskyChargersQ4 9:32(9:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 33 for -9 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LAC-54-M.Ingram at CHI 28. 54-M.Ingram to CHI 26 for 2 yards (70-B.Massie).
19.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 3 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 13 on third down, against Chargers at 2 of 10 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bears at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Chargers155 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:04) 15-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Swing −69.3 for BearsExpected points −2.55 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04LAC +69% win prob(:04) 15-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
4th · 9:32LAC +20% win prob(9:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 33 for -9 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LAC-54-M.Ingram at CHI 28. 54-M.Ingram to CHI 26 for 2 yards (70-B.Massie).
4th · 13:07LAC +18% win prob(13:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right intended for 80-T.Burton INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Hayward at LAC 43. 26-C.Hayward pushed ob at CHI 20 for 37 yards (65-C.Whitehair).
4th · 2:44LAC +17% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at LAC 46 for -6 yards (97-J.Bosa).
4th · 1:45LAC +15% win prob(1:45) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 58 yards to CHI 18, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 35 for 17 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
2nd · 2:21CHI +15% win prob(2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Ekeler's 11-yard touchdown catch with 8:12 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd14:48Eddy Pineiro·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+30–3
2nd4:20Eddy Pineiro·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+30–6
3rd0:42Chase McLaughlin·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+310–16
4th8:12Austin Ekeler·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip RiversLead never changed again+717–16
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryBears
Chargers5–4Bears
231Total yards389
5.5Yards per play5.2
40%Success rate40%
20%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays9
10First downs21
1Sacks taken4
1Turnovers2
The read
Chargers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Chargers: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.11Bears: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Chargers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.11Bears: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Chargers: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.11Bears: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 42 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Bears’s 75 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Bears 5.
NoteBears outgained Chargers 389-231 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor.
high through week 8Against their seasonFourth Down
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3%, is past their previous high of 28.6% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 8.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.5 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
high through week 8Against their seasonOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, +7.0 pts, is past their previous high of +5.7 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
42 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
CHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +15.5 pts in week 7 against −10.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
75 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 85.7% in week 7 against 49.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Bears20.0%
leaned — got home · +7.4 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.27× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 21.1 points above their season mean of 12.2% and 1.6 times their own 13.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Eddy Pineiro−67% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 15-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 0:04 · Bears · 2nd & 11 at LAC 22 · gained nothing · -2.55 EP · −67.4% win probability
153 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 76 yards from the CHI 23 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
38%
Yards
619
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0551%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0576%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.4025%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.1257%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.3567%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 29
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Bears 34
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chargers 39
No good11 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Chargers 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chargers 24
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Chargers0Bears3
Field goal3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 44
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 43
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chargers 19
Chargers0Bears6
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Chargers 7
Chargers6Bears6
Chargers7Bears6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Bears 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chargers7Bears9
Field goal17 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Chargers 1
3rd quarter32 plays
Chargers7Bears15
Chargers7Bears16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Chargers 4
Chargers10Bears16
Field goal16 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Bears 2
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter49 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bears 35
No good5 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Bears 42
Chargers16Bears16
Chargers17Bears16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt14 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Chargers 37
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
No good11 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Chargers 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Chargerscategory by categoryBears
Chargers0
Bears3
