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Miami Dolphins 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers 27. Final.
Steelers -14 no coverU 44 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Dolphins 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 7:39, 4th and 6, on M.Rudolph — 16.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:39 · 4th and 6
M.Rudolph
Dolphins
(7:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short middle to 13-J.Washington (33-J.Wiltz).
Steelers closed -14, won by 13 — but didn't cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27–14. Biggest swing: Q1 7:39, Dolphins +16.9% win probability on one snap.
16.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.HurnsDolphinsQ1 1:41(1:41) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 17-A.Hurns for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.6pts
D.JohnsonSteelersQ2 0:26(:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 18-D.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 0 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Steelers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Dolphins at 4 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.00 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 23.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 42 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Dolphins161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(7:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short middle to 13-J.Washington (33-J.Wiltz).
Swing −16.9 for SteelersExpected points −2.20 for SteelersThe model had Dolphins 42 points higher than the market did.play 25
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:39MIA +17% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short middle to 13-J.Washington (33-J.Wiltz).
2nd · 0:26PIT +17% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 18-D.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:41PIT +16% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 17-A.Hurns for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:23PIT +15% win prob(3:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:28MIA +14% win prob(11:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
2nd · 4:29PIT +11% win prob(4:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to MIA 25 for 34 yards (24-R.Lewis).
1st · 12:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Smith-Schuster's 26-yard touchdown catch with 3:23 left in the 3rd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th5:37C.Boswell·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+314–27
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categorySteelers
Dolphins2–7Steelers
231Total yards394
4.1Yards per play5.9
39%Success rate34%
38%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
0Explosive plays9
15First downs19
4Sacks taken2
4Turnovers1
The read
Steelers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.24Dolphins: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.05Steelers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Dolphins: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.10Steelers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.42Dolphins: −0.42 expected points added per play
+0.00Steelers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 56 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Steelers’s 67 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Steelers 4.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's sack or hit rate, 18.4%, is past their previous high of 13.3% in week 7 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 24 pts
leaned — got home · +7.6 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Steelers24.4%
inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 18.4%, 7.6 points above their season mean of 10.8% and 1.5 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
46 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
61J'Marcus WebbT · Every snap100%57 snaps
76Evan BoehmG · Every snap100%57 snaps
63Michael DeiterOG · Every snap100%57 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Every snap100%57 snaps
14Ryan FitzpatrickQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
22Mark WaltonHB · Full-time88%50 snaps
18Preston WilliamsWR · Full-time88%50 snaps
11DeVante ParkerWR · Heavy rotation79%45 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Heavy rotation65%37 snaps
62Shaq CalhounG · Heavy rotation54%31 snaps
64Chris ReedG · Rotational46%26 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational35%20 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Rotational33%19 snaps
15Albert WilsonWR · Rotational32%18 snaps
83Nick O'LearyTE · Rotational28%16 snaps
19Jakeem GrantWR · Rotational25%14 snaps
27Kalen BallageRB · Situational16%9 snaps
38Chandler CoxFB · Situational12%7 snaps
Inactive · 8
Daniel KilgoreCKeaton SutherlandGAvery MossOLBMyles GaskinRBKenyan DrakeRBReshad JonesSSAndrew DonnalTIsaiah FordWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Sam EguavoenLBJosh RosenQB
Pittsburgh Steelers
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%74 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%74 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%74 snaps
2Mason RudolphQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%74 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Full-time82%61 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Heavy rotation77%57 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation74%55 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Rudolph pass+19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 18-D.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:26 · Steelers · 3rd & 20 at MIA 45 · gained 45 · +5.89 EP · +19.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 97 yards from the PIT 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
35%
Yards
624
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.3579%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.4580%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2157%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.59100%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR8-0.370%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.030%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.6643%
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR5+0.420%
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 20
Dolphins6Steelers0
Dolphins7Steelers0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 5
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Dolphins 37
Dolphins13Steelers0
Dolphins14Steelers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Steelers 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 34
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Dolphins 48
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Steelers 41
Dolphins14Steelers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 6 to the Dolphins 24
Intercepted7 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Dolphins 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Dolphins14Steelers9
Dolphins14Steelers10
Touchdown11 plays, from midfield to the Dolphins 35
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
No good10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Dolphins 36
Intercepted3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and seven backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Dolphins14Steelers16
Dolphins14Steelers17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 3 to the Dolphins 26
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Steelers 47
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Dolphins14Steelers23
Dolphins14Steelers24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Dolphins 4
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to midfield
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Dolphins14Steelers27
Field goal5 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 18
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Steelers 31
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Steelers 44
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Dolphins 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
