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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Detroit Lions 31, Giants 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 7:20, 1st and 10, on D.Jones — 15.0 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:20 · 1st and 10
D.Jones
Lions
(7:20) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 19 for -10 yards (40-J.Davis). FUMBLES (40-J.Davis) [40-J.Davis], RECOVERED by DET-42-D.Kennard at NYG 13. 42-D.Kennard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -6.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Detroit Lions 31–26. Biggest swing: Q1 7:20, Lions +15.0% win probability on one snap.
15.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ja.JenkinsGiantsQ1 8:46(8:46) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 11-M.Jones INTERCEPTED by 20-Ja.Jenkins at NYG 5. 20-Ja.Jenkins to NYG 15 for 10 yards (19-K.Golladay).
9.5pts
D.SlaytonGiantsQ2 4:45(4:45) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.40 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Giants at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Lions at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Giants165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(7:20) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 19 for -10 yards (40-J.Davis). FUMBLES (40-J.Davis) [40-J.Davis], RECOVERED by DET-42-D.Kennard at NYG 13. 42-D.Kennard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.0 for LionsExpected points +8.33 for LionsThe model had Giants 13 points higher than the market did.play 18
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:20NYG +15% win prob(7:20) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 19 for -10 yards (40-J.Davis). FUMBLES (40-J.Davis) [40-J.Davis], RECOVERED by DET-42-D.Kennard at NYG 13. 42-D.Kennard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:45DET +12% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:46NYG +10% win prob(8:46) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 11-M.Jones INTERCEPTED by 20-Ja.Jenkins at NYG 5. 20-Ja.Jenkins to NYG 15 for 10 yards (19-K.Golladay).
3rd · 4:59DET +8% win prob(4:59) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 88-E.Engram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-21-T.Walker was injured during the play. He is Out.
2nd · 0:25DET +7% win prob(:25) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
2nd · 8:14NYG +6% win prob(8:14) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Kennard's 13-yard touchdown with 7:20 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Giants ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Giants: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.08Lions: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Giants: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.39Lions: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Giants: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.40Lions: −0.40 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 68 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Lions’s 59 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Lions 3.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Lions13.0%
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was DET's early-down pass rate, 48.9% against a season mean of 55.3% — and DET swings 8.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Darius SlayCBAmani OruwariyeCBKevin StrongDTMike DanielsDTBeau BenzschawelGOday AboushiOGDavid BloughQB
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jeff DriskelQBRick WagnerT
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones sacked−19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:20) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 19 for -10 yards (40-J.Davis). FUMBLES (40-J.Davis) [40-J.Davis], RECOVERED by DET-42-D.Kennard at NYG 13. 42-D.Kennard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 7:20 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 29 · lost 16 · -8.33 EP · −19.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 88 yards from the NYG 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
36%
Yards
745
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0777%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.3167%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.1944%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.5457%
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6-0.3350%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.4120%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Giants 37
Intercepted8 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Giants 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Giants0Lions6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 29
Giants0Lions7
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 23
Giants0Lions13
Giants0Lions14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Giants 44
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Giants 40
2nd quarter49 plays
Giants6Lions14
Giants7Lions14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Lions 22
No good11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Giants 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Giants13Lions14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Lions 28
Giants13Lions17
Field goal18 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Giants 30
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Giants13Lions23
Giants13Lions24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Giants 9
Giants19Lions24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Lions 2
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 32
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 48
4th quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays
Giants19Lions30
Giants19Lions31
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Giants 41
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Lions 39
Fumble lost3 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Lions 38 to the Lions 13
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Lions 16
Giants25Lions31
Giants26Lions31
Touchdown6 plays, from midfield to the Lions 4
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Giantscategory by categoryLions
Giants0
Lions6
