2019 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium

New York Jets

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

JAX -7 ✓O 39.5 ✓Jaguars closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.

Jacksonville Jaguars 29–15. Biggest swing: Q1 1:24, JAX +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:24NYJ — JAX JAX ball · 2nd & 7JAX 68%

(1:24) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep middle to 18-C.Conley for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:24JAX +14% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep middle to 18-C.Conley for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:09NYJ +13% win prob(2:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-Ro.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Herndon [41-J.Allen] at JAX 27. 37-T.Herndon to JAX 27 for no gain (11-Ro.Anderson).
Q1 · 14:15JAX +10% win prob(14:15) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to NYJ 9 for 66 yards (33-J.Adams).
Q1 · 2:36JAX +7% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 84-R.Griffin to JAX 34 for 16 yards (26-J.Wilson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Jaguars
Offensive plays	52	66
Total yards	216	393 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.21	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	40% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	75%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.43 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	2/9	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	8	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 23	6	77	2:21	Touchdown
2	NYJ	NYJ 7	13	98	7:48	Touchdown
3	JAX	JAX 21	5	8	2:15	Punt
4	NYJ	50	2	16	0:35	Interception
5	JAX	JAX 27	3	73	0:50	Touchdown
6	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-3	2:10	Punt
7	JAX	NYJ 36	3	-1	0:58	Fumble
8	NYJ	NYJ 37	4	-2	1:10	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 5	17	89	8:56	Turnover on downs
10	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-5	1:14	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 36	10	39	1:32	Turnover on downs
12	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	0	0:11	End of half
13	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	13	4:20	Punt
14	JAX	JAX 21	6	12	3:47	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 33	4	-3	1:39	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 30	8	39	3:03	Turnover on downs
17	NYJ	NYJ 25	11	77	4:04	Touchdown
18	JAX	JAX 25	8	30	2:57	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 8	2	-4	1:31	Interception
20	JAX	NYJ 24	9	23	4:26	Touchdown
21	NYJ	NYJ 31	5	20	0:55	Interception
22	JAX	JAX 42	4	4	0:28	Punt
23	NYJ	NYJ 23	4	4	0:28	Turnover on downs
24	JAX	NYJ 27	4	0	1:48	Turnover on downs
25	NYJ	NYJ 31	1	5	0:34	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 98 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -7
Closing total: 39.5
NYJ moneyline: +254
JAX moneyline: -295

Jaguars closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 79°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: NYJ 6 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Doug Marrone