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2019 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
JetsNew York15
BY 14final margin
JaguarsJacksonville29
New York Jets 15 at Jacksonville Jaguars 29. Final.
Jaguars -7 ✓O 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
Jacksonville Jaguars 29, Jets 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:24, 2nd and 7, on C.Conley — 13.7 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:24 · 2nd and 7
C.Conley
Jaguars
(1:24) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep middle to 18-C.Conley for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.7
Jaguars closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.
Jacksonville Jaguars 29–15. Biggest swing: Q1 1:24, Jaguars +13.7% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
L.FournetteJaguarsQ1 14:15(14:15) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to NYJ 9 for 66 yards (33-J.Adams).
9.9pts
T.HerndonJaguarsQ1 2:09(2:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-Ro.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Herndon [41-J.Allen] at JAX 27. 37-T.Herndon to JAX 27 for no gain (11-Ro.Anderson).
13.1pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.43 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 8 of 16 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 9 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Jets165 of 174 plays carry both curves
(1:24) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep middle to 18-C.Conley for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +13.7 for JaguarsExpected points +5.80 for JaguarsThe model had Jets 16 points higher than the market did.play 34
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:24JAX +14% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep middle to 18-C.Conley for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:09NYJ +13% win prob(2:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-Ro.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Herndon [41-J.Allen] at JAX 27. 37-T.Herndon to JAX 27 for no gain (11-Ro.Anderson).
1st · 14:15JAX +10% win prob(14:15) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to NYJ 9 for 66 yards (33-J.Adams).
1st · 2:36JAX +7% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 84-R.Griffin to JAX 34 for 16 yards (26-J.Wilson).
2nd · 13:15NYJ +6% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II sacked at NYJ 42 for -6 yards (60-J.Willis). FUMBLES (60-J.Willis), RECOVERED by NYJ-53-B.Cashman at NYJ 37. 53-B.Cashman to NYJ 37 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook; 23-R.Armstead).
1st · 12:43JAX +6% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 84-K.Cole for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Conley's 70-yard touchdown catch with 1:24 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:43K.Cole·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom G.Minshew IIfrom G.Minshew II · kick no good, wide right+60–6
Jaguars ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Jets: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.12Jaguars: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Jets: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.43Jaguars: +0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Jets: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.35Jaguars: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 52 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Jaguars 5.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's sack or hit rate, 30.8%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 24.5% in week 3.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 7.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.9 pts in week 7 against +9.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jaguars30.8%
leaned — got home · +12.7 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.94× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.8%, 12.7 points above their season mean of 18.1% and 1.9 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Brandon ShellT · Every snap100%58 snaps
71Alex LewisG · Every snap100%58 snaps
67Brian WintersG · Every snap100%58 snaps
75Chuma EdogaT · Every snap100%58 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
84Ryan GriffinTE · Full-time95%55 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Full-time90%52 snaps
26Le'Veon BellRB · Full-time84%49 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Heavy rotation72%42 snaps
18Demaryius ThomasWR · Heavy rotation60%35 snaps
55Ryan KalilC · Heavy rotation55%32 snaps
78Jonotthan HarrisonC · Rotational45%26 snaps
17Vyncint SmithWR · Rotational43%25 snaps
29Bilal PowellRB · Situational17%10 snaps
87Daniel BrownTE · Situational14%8 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Situational10%6 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Situational10%6 snaps
15Josh BellamyWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Henry AndersonDEC.J. MosleyILBAlbert McClellanOLBNeville HewittOLBTrenton CannonRBKelvin BeachumTChris HerndonTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass−18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-Ro.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Herndon [41-J.Allen] at JAX 27. 37-T.Herndon to JAX 27 for no gain (11-Ro.Anderson).
Q1 2:09 · Jets · 1st & 10 at JAX 34 · gained nothing · -4.99 EP · −18.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 93 yards from the NYJ 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
33%
Yards
604
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.3877%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3276%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.3831%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.4067%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.2950%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.26100%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Jets0Jaguars6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jets 6
Jets6Jaguars6
Jets7Jaguars6
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Jaguars 24
Punt7 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from midfield to the Jaguars 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Jets7Jaguars12
Jets7Jaguars13
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Jaguars 30
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
Fumble lost3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Jets 39
Jets7Jaguars16
Field goal18 plays, from the Jaguars 5 to the Jets 6
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 29
Jets7Jaguars19
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Jets 25
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 40
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 31
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Jets 36
Jets7Jaguars22
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jets 6
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jaguars 39
4th quarter51 plays
Jets13Jaguars22
Jets15Jaguars22
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Jaguars 3
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jets 45
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 23
Jets15Jaguars28
Jets15Jaguars29
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 1
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 46
Punt7 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 27
Turnover on downs4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
