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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 27, Raiders 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 8:02, 3rd and 7, on T.Williams — 16.6 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:02 · 3rd and 7
T.Williams
Raiders
(8:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 16-T.Williams for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 8:02, Raiders +16.6% win probability on one snap.
16.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
H.RenfrowRaidersQ1 3:51(3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.8pts
C.HydeTexansQ4 8:46(8:46) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde left tackle pushed ob at LV 36 for 10 yards (25-E.Harris).
11.2pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Raiders171 of 180 plays carry both curves
(8:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 16-T.Williams for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.6 for TexansExpected points −5.46 for TexansThe model had Raiders 5 points higher than the market did.play 118
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:02HOU +17% win prob(8:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 16-T.Williams for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:51HOU +16% win prob(3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:46HOU +11% win prob(8:46) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde left tackle pushed ob at LV 36 for 10 yards (25-E.Harris).
3rd · 12:15HOU +11% win prob(12:15) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 14-D.Carter pushed ob at LV 11 for 46 yards (27-T.Mullen).
3rd · 9:18HOU +9% win prob(9:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 16-T.Williams pushed ob at HOU 49 for 23 yards (30-C.Armstrong).
2nd · 2:10HOU +9% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 12-K.Stills to LV 16 for 13 yards (20-D.Worley).
3rd · 11:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Fells's 9-yard touchdown catch with 6:34 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th10:52D.Carlson·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+324–20
4th6:34D.Fells·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom D.Watsonfrom D.WatsonLead never changed again+724–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's sack or hit rate, 3.3%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 5.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 5.6% in week 6.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
HOU's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.8 pts in week 7 against +5.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 15 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Texans3.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.3%, 9.9 points below their season mean of 13.2% and 1.5 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 3:51 · Raiders · 3rd & 6 at LV 35 · gained 65 · +6.62 EP · +19.1% win probability
169 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 95 yards from the LV 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
46%
Yards
766
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2248%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.2555%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30+0.1673%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2475%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.1767%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.2617%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter50 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 38
Punt10 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 38
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 27
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Raiders6Texans0
Raiders7Texans0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 5 to the Raiders 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Raiders7Texans6
Raiders7Texans7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Raiders 12
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 31
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays
Raiders13Texans7
Raiders14Texans7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Texans 6
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 33
Raiders14Texans10
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Raiders 15
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 32
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Raiders14Texans13
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Raiders 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Raiders20Texans13
Raiders21Texans13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Texans 46
The period ended17 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Raiders 12
4th quarter44 plays
Raiders21Texans19
Raiders21Texans20
Touchdown2 plays
Raiders24Texans20
Field goal11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Texans 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Raiders24Texans26
Raiders24Texans27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Raiders 9
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Texans 45
The period ended11 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Raiders 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
